About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.
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Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 fgraves@ekos.com

Latest Results and Current Stories

It’s the Economy, Stupid! …but which one?

SPECULATION ON HOW DOUBLE VISION ON A DUAL ECONOMY WILL BE THE CRITICAL FACTOR SHAPING THE NEXT ELECTION

[Ottawa – January 16, 2015] From a random probability sample of some 4,400 Canadians, we would be hard pressed to draw any conclusions about what party (or parties) will hold power next November. The Liberals have a small but significant lead, and they have led in every poll we have conducted for well over a year. They have a very important lead in the critical Ontario market and they have strength throughout the country and with some key voting groups like… [More...]

Landscape Frozen as We Enter Election Year

[Ottawa – January 16, 2015] The political landscape appears as frozen as Canada is. The Liberals hold a slight but statistically significant lead, while the Conservatives appear to have stabilized at 31 points, which is good news for a party that hadn’t broken 30 points in two years. So all in all, there isn’t much going on as we enter a new election year. Nevertheless, there are some interesting signals and harbingers worth watching. And sometimes, the absence of movement is notable in itself.

In particular, there are two fundamentally different views on the economy that will be critical… [More...]

Final Update 2014: Harper’s late year bubble may have burst?

[Ottawa – December 23, 2014] In our final poll of 2014 the Liberals have rebounded somewhat to open up a small but significant four-point lead. This ensures that the Liberals will complete the year with never once surrendering the lead and in a position which nearly doubles their disastrous outing in 2011. While the Conservatives have drawn into a very competitive position the bounce that they received from the security episodes of the late fall appears to be fading. The next few months of what will be an increasingly intense pre-campaign period will tell us whether the CPC surge was… [More...]

It Is Neck and Neck as We Head into Election Year

[Ottawa – December 15, 2014] Yet another new normal has set into the Canadian political landscape as we head into an election year. Some unexpected events have altered the last normal which saw the rejuvenated Liberal Party – led by Justin Trudeau – clearly in the driver’s seat and on the cusp of what would likely have been a majority government (had those numbers persisted to Election Day). A renewed security focus and other events following the shootings in Ottawa have produced a virtual deadlock between the Liberals and the Conservatives.

Through a combination of propitious events and sound… [More...]

Genquake! The Looming Generational War

[Ottawa – December 9, 2014] If age was money, then Canada would be obscenely rich because we are getting really old. Some basic statistics underline just how vivid our aging has been. As we approach our sesquicentennial, it is worth noting that at our centennial, our median age was around 26. The current median age which demarcates older and younger Canada is 41 and rising. Robert Stanfield most likely would have beat Pierre Trudeau in the photo-finish election of 1972 if they had competed in this political marketplace.

We are somewhat older than America and we had the biggest… [More...]

Dramatically Tightened Race as Conservatives Crack 30-Barrier for First Time Since Late 2012:

CLEAR TILT TO A SECURITY AGENDA AS THE DRIVER

[Ottawa – November 7, 2014] The political landscape looks very different in the aftermath of the shootings of two weeks ago. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have seen their fairly solid and stable 12-point lead collapse into a much less comfortable three-point lead. A longstanding shift away from the security agenda as a priority has seen a dramatic rebalancing of the security/civil liberty fulcrum. This has propelled Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party to heights it hasn’t seen in nearly two years and redrawn the political calculus around election timing. The Liberals and the… [More...]

Race Tightens as We See Security Shifts in a More Anxious Public?

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[Ottawa – October 31, 2014] The impacts of the tragic deaths of two Canadian soldiers appear to be affecting the political landscape in a highly significant fashion. While not entirely unexpected, the clarity and significance of the effects may be altering the political calculus around an early election.

From our latest poll, the following points are clear:

  1. The race has tightened significantly with the Liberal lead now cut in half and the Conservative Party now clearly ahead of the NDP.
  2. While his approval rating remains mired below 30 points, Mr. Harper has seen some softening of

A Memo from Citizens of the Near Future to the Leaders of Today

A LITTLE LESS MORAL PANIC, A LITTLE MORE PUBLIC JUDGEMENT, PLEASE

By Frank Graves

[Ottawa – October 28, 2014] If we were to pick one date that demarcates the period of Western decline (and upper North American decline in particular), it would be September 11th, 2001. On that fateful day, the triumphal optimism celebrated in the End of History was halted by a whiplash-like inversion of the traditional balance of security and other issues such as civil liberties.

Although not obvious at the time, Canada participated at least as enthusiastically in this new… [More...]

One Year Out: A New Normal with Considerable Room for Further Change

[Ottawa – October 19, 2014] It is exactly one year to the day until the 2015 election and the country remains in a funk, with unusually poor ratings of both national and federal government direction. Outside of the diminished Conservative base, the vast majority think both the country and the federal government are moving in the wrong direction. While our most recent poll has shown a slight uptick in federal direction, is not meaningful and the Conservative Party remains mired at 26 points in vote intention.

Rethinking the Public Interest: Evolving Trends in Values and Attitudes

By Frank Graves

Presentation to the 2014 #Can2020 Conference

Ottawa, Ontario
October 2, 2014

Click here for a PDF version of this presentation: Rethinking the Public Interest (October 2, 2014)

Liberals Continue to Ride High While NDP Move Up; CPC Moribund at Sub-25

MODERN LOWS FOR NATIONAL DIRECTIONAL APPROVAL AS CITIZENS SEEK A “BOLD NEW VISION”

By Frank Graves

[Ottawa – October 1, 2014] In a major new survey of public attitudes and values, we find a pretty stable political landscape which is increasingly unreceptive to another Stephen Harper government. Not only would the government be in no position to aspire to repeat its 2011 success, it may not even achieve leader of the opposition with these numbers. While we find this scenario unlikely, the continued flagging of Conservative Party fortunes now renders this a real possibility. Indeed, Stephen Harper’s regal… [More...]

CRTC asked to clarify whether survey research is telemarketing

September 29, 2014 (Ottawa) Probit Inc., one of Canada’s leading survey research companies, is asking the CRTC to explain why it believes that professional researchers who survey Canadians are actually telemarketers. On September 10 the CRTC demanded extensive information about every telephone call made by Probit from October 2012 and September 2012, and in the same letter told Probit that it had already decided that Probit was telemarketing by offering people prizes to encourage them to participate in surveys.

Applications filed today by Probit with the CRTC ask it to give the company a chance to defend itself before… [More...]

From the End of History to the End of Progress

BY FRANK GRAVES

[Ottawa – September 19, 2014] Twenty-five years ago, Francis Fukuyama penned a seminal essay titled the “End of History?” This essay claimed that liberal capitalism had triumphed. This celebratory conclusion was noted in the dissolution of state socialism and the ascendance of the United States to hyperpower status1 and the provocative notion that the dialectical tensions of history had ended and the riddle of history had been solved in American supremacy. At the end of the century, the ascension of a growing and optimistic middle class in the last half of the twentieth century seemed… [More...]

From the End of History to the End of Progress

THE SHIFTING MEANING OF MIDDLE CLASS

By Frank Graves

Presentation to the Queen’s 2014 International Institute on Social Policy

Kingston, Ontario
August 19, 2014

Click here for a PDF version of this presentation: From the End of History to the End of Progress (August 19, 2014)

Political Landscape Turning Bleak for Stephen Harper

[Ottawa – August 10, 2014] As part of a pretty comprehensive diagnostic poll on a range of current issues, we have conducted an update of the political landscape in Canada. There is nothing particularly remarkable about these results, but put in context with the overall time series which precedes it, and some of the other more probing questions we will be releasing later, this poll really does not augur well for the Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party.

This poll does, however, reinforce the notion that the now profound lead enjoyed by Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party is far from… [More...]

“Likely” Voters and the NDP Vote in the Ontario Election

A CAUTIONARY TALE

“Kudos needs to go to EKOS Research, the only firm to call two of the three main parties within two percentage points. In terms of the eventual outcome, their poll was probably the most informative, though they had the NDP too low.”

- Éric Grenier, ThreeHundredEight.com

[Ottawa – June 17, 2014] Looking back at the Ontario election, we were very pleased to have predicted not only the victor, but also the majority. Only one other firm made this correct forecast. While we are very happy with the nearness of our… [More...]

EKOS Accurately Predicts Ontario Liberal Majority

[Ottawa – June 13, 2014] After an exciting month-long campaign, the 41st Ontario general election has come to a close and we at EKOS are pleased that we accurately projected Kathleen Wynne’s majority victory. Indeed, our final poll captured both of the frontrunners to within the margin of error.

We also succeeded in noting the relative stability of the campaign, which is why we were confident in calling a Liberal victory as early as June 5th, noting that Wynne had an excellent shot at a majority government… [More...]

An Overview of the Campaign and a Reasoned Guess at the Outcome

WYNNE LIKELY HEADED FOR MAJORITY

[Ottawa – June 11, 2014] – Wynne has recaptured what was a highly stable, modest lead (37.3 per cent, versus 31.3 for the Progressive Conservatives). The about-to-conclude 41st Ontario general election has been an interesting and closely contested contest. It featured an unusually stark choice between two highly contradictory policy visions – a minimal government, austerity platform which assigns responsibly for growth and prosperity to the private sector and a progressive state model which sees government as both a source of insulation from the fallout of a slow-moving economy and as an agent of… [More...]

Race Breaking Liberal

LIBERALS APPEAR HEADED TO A MAJORITY

[Ottawa – June 11, 2014] – In a very important last-minute development, we see the race re-establishing its stable pattern from the pre-debate period. The Liberals now have a highly statistically significant lead of six points (36.6 per cent to 30.2 per cent) which places them not only in range of victory, but in majority territory. The evidence seems to show that the debate effect has followed a common pattern of dissipating and the electorate have reverted to the positions they held in the first three weeks of the campaign.

Dead Heat Persists as We Move to Home Stretch

IT DOESN’T GET ANY CLOSER THAN THIS

[Ottawa – June 10, 2014] – In what has been a pretty remarkable campaign we have nearly unprecedented murkiness in terms of the final outcome of a neck and neck race. For all intents and purposes, we now see a dead heat in terms of all eligible voters for the third night in a row. Our (slightly) adjusted likely voter model shows a shrinking and small advantage for Wynne’s Liberal party. At this stage, only a heroic guess would yield an estimate as to the victor and we simply don’t see any… [More...]