Latest Results and Current Stories
[Ottawa – April 24, 2015] There is nothing really of note in the vote intention numbers this week. We see the usual array of fluctuations in the regional and demographic samples, but the overall pattern is one of stasis. One gets the feeling that the public will only truly begin to engage now that the budget has been delivered. The coming month will be highly revealing as to who is in a good position to triumph in the fall.
At this time, we would like to pause and look at a couple of critical issues which often get obscured… [More...]
[Ottawa – April 10, 2015] If only eight percent of voters shifted their current vote intention, we would have a dead heat across the three lead parties. The voter landscape is shifting in ways that do not appear to favour Stephen Harper’s Conservatives who now find themselves under 29 points for the first time since the security bounce from last October propelled them into a small but significant lead (which now appears to have evaporated). They now (insignificantly) trail Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and see less than a six-point margin over a clearly rejuvenated NDP.
Despite the sliding fortunes for… [More...]
[Ottawa – April 2, 2015] The discipline of a fixed election date is increasingly drawing voter attention and we are seeing a pretty stable vote intention landscape. There are, however, some paradoxical disconnections between key trends in the dominant issues and concerns of Canadians and the recent relative success of Stephen Harper’s Conservatives. In short, the public now see their economy in a recession and give the government lousy marks on broad national direction. The dominant media issues of terror and security are no longer tracking in the government’s favour and the Prime Minister has the… [More...]
CAN THE OPPOSITION CHANGE THE CHANNEL FROM MIDDLE EAST TO MIDDLE CLASS?
[Ottawa – March 27, 2015] Our latest polling shows an insignificant but continued decline in Liberal fortunes. The Liberals are now below 29 points for the first time in a long time and the long-term trend is not positive. The Conservatives, while down from a high of 35 points, now enjoy a small but statistically significant lead based on the Liberal decline.
The real story here, however, may be a gradual but significant rebound in NDP fortunes, who have climbed from below 18 points… [More...]
DECLINING SUPPORT FOR EXTENSION WHICH IS NOW EVENLY SPLIT
[Ottawa – March 26, 2015] The ISIS mission continues to receive majority support, but this support is beginning to soften and is increasingly divided across partisan leanings and other key fault lines. This pattern of waning public support is familiar and was seen in the case of the Afghanistan mission. The initial blend of moral outrage and emotional chauvinism linked to the serial barbaric atrocities of ISIS will be tempered by more rational appraisal of the pros and cons of the mission as time goes on… [More...]
By Frank Graves
[Ottawa – March 12, 2015] Canada has been singularly successful in solving the postmodern riddle of the clash of civilizations. While Europe and America have torn themselves apart over issues of immigration and race, Canada has been remarkably spared this particular affliction. All of this may be drawing to a close.
Under the forces of growing economic and cultural insecurities linked to security and terror, we are seeing a sharp erosion of our openness to diversity and immigration. Moreover, these issues are now prominent in the rhetoric of the political parties jostling for position in… [More...]
[Ottawa – February 27, 2015] Well, it’s well short of a wave and not very crushing, but the NDP seems to be the only mover in an otherwise frozen voter landscape. Whether this new Orange Hiccough will develop into anything more impressive remains to be seen; but the NDP has risen from the depths of high teens to 22 points and there is some alternative evidence that they may be doing a bit better than that (our live interviewer test shows that they receive more of the Bloc vote than is recorded to our more impersonal robot)… [More...]
The Shifting Meaning of the Middle Class
Full article available at Canada 2020.
[Ottawa – February 25, 2015] A few years ago, we began noticing something very different about the way the public looked at the economy. The public seemed to believe that we were encountering an end of progress. The idea of a “better life” or what is known to the south as the American Dream seemed to be slipping away. Among citizens of both Canada and the United States, there was a growing recognition that the middle class bargain of shared prosperity, which had… [More...]
The Canadian perspective on Millennials/Gen X and the growing tensions with older generations
By Frank Graves
Presentation to the The Future of Work and Workers of the Future Seminar
January 23, 2015
Click here for a PDF version of this presentation: A Looming Generational Conflict? (January 23, 2015)
SPECULATION ON HOW DOUBLE VISION ON A DUAL ECONOMY WILL BE THE CRITICAL FACTOR SHAPING THE NEXT ELECTION
[Ottawa – January 16, 2015] From a random probability sample of some 4,400 Canadians, we would be hard pressed to draw any conclusions about what party (or parties) will hold power next November. The Liberals have a small but significant lead, and they have led in every poll we have conducted for well over a year. They have a very important lead in the critical Ontario market and they have strength throughout the country and with some key voting groups like… [More...]