COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES
[Ottawa – January 26, 2012] The only smoke visible in Liberal Canada these days is coming from the scorched earth of May 2nd. It may therefore not be that surprising that the party would resort to some more pyrotechnic measures to reignite its fortunes. On the surface, the resolution to not just decriminalize but to legalize pot seems more of a Hail Mary than a sound strategic foundation for renewal. But is this really that hazy? When one looks at the longer term patterns of public opinion, and considers the truly available constituencies for the… [More...]
January 26th, 2012 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves, Economy | Leave a comment
[Ottawa - January 14, 2012] Follow the link below for our complete six-part series titled “Beyond the Horserace”.
In this series, we examine the changes that have occured since May’s election, the flaws in our political system that were exposed as a result, and the opportunities they present.
Click here for complete six-part series: Beyond the Horserace (January 14, 2012)
Click here for the complete data tables for this series: Data Tables
January 14th, 2012 | Category: Economy, Election Issues, National Results | Leave a comment
[Ottawa – January 14, 2012] One of the limitations of current media polling is that the pollster and media client tend to select the topics it wants to talk about and frames the questions in a way that s/he thinks is appropriate. Pollsters typically do so in a fair and balanced manner but, even if that standard is met, the universe of discourse is set by the pollster, not the public. In this exercise, we reverse the usual process and have a statistically representative sample of the public pick the conversations they deem to be the most important. We will… [More...]
January 14th, 2012 | Category: Election Issues, National Results | Leave a comment
[Ottawa – January 13, 2012] Following a tough slog through democratic trust and alternative institutional arrangements for the future perhaps a more familiar review of approval ratings can serve as a light interlude before we conclude with Canadians’ predictions for election 2015 (yikes!) and their selected top preferences for national conversations.
Chart 4.1 is fairly self-explanatory. Let’s start with Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Our most recognized leader produces the same polarized responses that we saw on the directional number for the federal government. With 34 per cent approval he slightly exceeds his party’s standing and he enjoys near universal approval amongst… [More...]
January 13th, 2012 | Category: Election Issues, National Results | Leave a comment
[Ottawa – January 13, 2012] Predictions are indeed hard, especially about the future as Yogi Berra once opined. Yet the public seem to have little difficulty offering their speculations about the next election, however distant it might appear now. Is this the wisdom of crowds, mob psychology, or just wishful thinking? Who knows, but there are some surprising areas of consensus in the Canadian public about 2015, and they don’t look much like the received wisdom in the chattering classes and fifth estate.
Using two different methods, we arrived at basically the same conclusions about the public prognostication for that now… [More...]
January 13th, 2012 | Category: Election Issues, National Results | Leave a comment
POST-PARTY POLITICS?
[Ottawa – January 13, 2012] If democratic malaise is a serious and growing problem in Canada, particularly in the half of the population under our rising median age (now 42), what can and should be done about this? We see that concern with rates of voter decline is muted among those still voting and we see a cleavage on whether this is a serious issue lining up along generational lines. By way of illustration, a modest majority of all Canadians did not support the decision to leave the Kyoto accord but, opposition dramatically outstripped support among those… [More...]
January 13th, 2012 | Category: Election Issues, National Results | Leave a comment
A NATIONAL CHECK-UP
[Ottawa – January 13, 2012] It will come as little surprise that our review of Canada’s democratic health produces some spotty results. What may be more interesting is what the trend lines are, what seems to be producing trust and mistrust and which aspects of our democracy is seen as most in need of attention. There are some ironies and contradictions as well which will become clearer as we consider the issue of alternatives to the status quo and how prominently issues of democracy reckon in the public hierarchy of preference national conversations. Some ‘alternatives’ may be contributing… [More...]
January 13th, 2012 | Category: Election Issues, National Results | Leave a comment
THE LONGER TERM VIEW FROM THE PUBLIC
[Ottawa – January 12, 2012] Is there anything sadder than a pollster without a horserace? The fever pitch of real and imagined perturbations in an electorate vibrating to the vagaries of minority governments has been displaced by the serenity of a clear majority government. Not only are the Conservatives ascendant in the House of Commons, they have a clear majority in the Senate and are refashioning public institutions such as public service, the courts, and the media to support their goal of a new era with Conservatives as the new “natural governing party”. Stephen… [More...]
January 12th, 2012 | Category: Economy, Election Issues, National Results | Leave a comment
TIME TO TAKE THE DISCRETIONARY OUT OF DEMOCRACY?
By Frank Graves
[Ottawa – October 21, 2011] – In something of a nadir, the recent Ontario Election, in which a number of big issues were on the table, couldn’t summon the participation of even half of the citizenry. Have we passed the brink from democracy to oligarchy? While on pattern with a disturbing downward trajectory in voter participation, this movement into the realm where the majority of citizens aren’t voting may be a wakeup call for those who think that elections shouldn’t becoming a fringe activity. What may make matters worse is that… [More...]
October 24th, 2011 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves, Ontario | Leave a comment
[OTTAWA – October 7, 2011] – Ontario’s 2011 election was exciting and offered a number of surprises and we at EKOS are pleased that not only did we accurately project the popular vote, we believe we did a good job in charting the direction of the election. For instance, we were the first to call a Liberal victory in our September 27th release.
We learned a number of important lessons from the May 2nd federal election and we have invested a great deal of time and resources into tweaking our model to more accurately reflect the varying voter turnout rates among… [More...]
October 7th, 2011 | Category: Ontario, Provincial Results | Leave a comment
… AND A FEW COMMENT ON WHY THIS ISN’T OUR MOST IMPORTANT POLL
[Ottawa – October 5, 2011 (evening)] – In our final poll, we offer two sets of numbers: all eligible voters and those we believe are most likely to vote. We don’t do this in the interest of doubling our chances of getting it right. Our best guess at a forecast is the most likely voter number, We do, however, think the other number is at least as important for other reasons and that the final closeness of polling numbers to the outcome isn’t best yardstick of “good” polling.
Good… [More...]
October 5th, 2011 | Category: Ontario, Provincial Results | Leave a comment
[Ottawa – October 5, 2011 (morning)] – In what would have been unthinkable as little as a week ago, McGuinty’s Liberals appear headed towards a majority. Our three-day roll-up of more than 2,000 Ontario residents puts the Ontario Liberal Party at 39.0 per cent, a full nine points ahead of the Progressive Conservative Party who now stand at 29.7 per cent. The Ontario NDP, meanwhile, is at 23.1 points and the Green Party is sitting at 6.6.
We now turn to the question of what happened. Just ten days ago, our polls showed the Ontario Liberals with a small (albeit statistically… [More...]
October 5th, 2011 | Category: Ontario, Provincial Results | Comments (1)
[Ottawa – October 4, 2011] – In the final stages of the Ontario Election, Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals have opened up a clear and, at this point, likely insurmountable lead over their rivals. At 39.1 points, they now have a full ten point advantage over the flagging Progressive Conservative Party who have fallen under 30 at 29.1 points. The NDP are stuck at 24.5, which seems to rule out their balance of power role in a possible minority situation and the Green Party is sitting at 6.0 points. In fact, barring some unforeseen late shifts, it would appear that Mr. McGuinty… [More...]
October 4th, 2011 | Category: Ontario, Provincial Results | Leave a comment
DEBATE HAD LITTLE IMPACT
[Ottawa – October 3, 2011] – In our most recent roll up of roughly 1,200 eligible voters in Ontario, Dalton McGuinty’s Liberal Party is opening up a stable and widening lead over rivals Hudak and Horwath. While the patterns that we have seen over the last week show that the debate has had no discernable impact on the fortunes of the three parties, the Ontario Liberals appear to be moving ahead slightly while the NDP appears to be wobbling slightly in the home stretch. Progressive Conservative support is quite firm, but simply not large enough at this… [More...]
October 3rd, 2011 | Category: Ontario, Provincial Results | Leave a comment
UNDERLYING DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERNS SUGGEST MCGUINTY POISED TO CAPTURE SOME FORM OF GOVERNMENT
[Ottawa – September 27, 2011] – With barely a week to go until the 40th Ontario general election, McGuinty’s Liberals have a slight but statistically significant lead over Hudak’s Progressive Conservative Party (34.9 to 31.4). Horwath and the NDP, meanwhile, are further back at 24.7 points.
In what may appear to be a fairly tight three-way race, the underlying demographic patterns and levels of emotional engagement may provide clues as to how voters will behave on election day. First, the demographic pluses which carved a majority for Harper in the… [More...]
September 27th, 2011 | Category: Ontario, Provincial Results | Comments (1)
Click the link below for a retrospective analysis on public opinion polling during the 2011 federal election.
41st Election: A Polling Retrospective
September 26th, 2011 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves, Methodology | Leave a comment
FRANK GRAVES RESPONDS TO EVALUATING THE POLLS: AN OPEN LETTER TO ONTARIO’S JOURNALISTS BY DARRELL BRICKER AND JOHN WRIGHT
[Ottawa – September 16, 2011] – Darrell Bricker and John Wright have recently taken a pretty harsh scattergun to many of their media polling competitors. While they score a number of direct hits on polling, and the media, they also say some things which are simply unfair. Given the failure of public opinion polls to accurately predict the 2011 election results, the frustration expressed by Mr. Bricker and Mr. Wright is understandable. Some of the claims that have been made regarding Interactive… [More...]
September 16th, 2011 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves, Methodology | Leave a comment
ALBERTA THE VANGUARD OF CANADIAN HAPPINESS
Many policy experts are emphasising the importance of understanding subjective wellbeing and happiness. One longstanding method of measuring subjective wellbeing is to ask respondents to rate their perceived quality of life. We did just that recently with a large random sample of Canadians (n=2,053). The results provide a snapshot of Canadians’ subjective wellbeing. Additional analysis also provides some hints as to the determinants of self-rated quality of life and the distribution of happiness in Canadian society.
First of all, Canadians are a relatively contented lot. Only single digit numbers consider their quality of life poor and… [More...]
June 21st, 2011 | Category: Quality of Life | Leave a comment
FINAL REPORT
INTRODUCTION:
Over the next few decades, the face of Canadian medicine will change dramatically and our health care system will need to adapt to new and emerging challenges as Canada heads into the 21st century. New and radical developments in medical technology are revolutionizing health care in Canada and physicians and facilities alike will need to adapt. Demographics of the Canadian population are also changing; Canadians are living longer while birth rates are falling. Furthermore, with the onset of the global financial crisis, governments in Canada are facing significant fiscal challenges while health care costs continue to rise.
It is essential… [More...]
June 21st, 2011 | Category: Health Care | Leave a comment
AN EMPIRICAL RETROSPECTIVE ON ELECTION 41
By Frank Graves
Introduction: The Nature and Purpose of this Test
“Mistakes are the portals of discovery.” -James Joyce
As the dust settles on what was an extraordinary 41st Canadian election campaign, it may be worthwhile taking a more careful look back at the polls. While focussing on our own research, our observations are intended to have more general relevance to the debate about the role of polling in the democratic process. In fact, the research has important lessons on the shifting nature of our society which has important implications for the role of polling beyond the narrow… [More...]
June 17th, 2011 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves | Comments (1)
