About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

EKOS Accurately Predicts PC Majority Victory

[Ottawa – June 12, 2018] After an exciting campaign, the 42nd Ontario general election has come to a close. We at EKOS believe we did a very good job in charting the direction of what was one of the most unusual election campaigns in recent memory. We first noted on June 1st that, barring significant changes, Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives appeared headed for a majority government. The race remained relatively stable in the final week and we affirmed this prediction on June 6th. Furthermore, we captured the popular support of all four contenders to within the margin of error. [More...]

EKOS Seat Projection

Special thanks go to Earl Washburn who was the principal investigator in creating this seat forecast.
[Ottawa – June 7, 2018] It’s that time again, it’s election day! And as we did in the last federal election, we are going to be bold and once again do a seat by seat prediction of today’s provincial election in Ontario. In our 2011 we got more seats correct than any publicly available projection model or prediction, and we are hoping to replicate that again for this election. However, predicting elections is often a fool’s game and if polling is wildly off, we will be too. [More...]

EKOS Predicts PC Majority

[Ottawa – June 6, 2018] In what has been a wild ride, the electorate are converging on a judgement that will see Doug Ford leading a comfortable majority for the next four years in Queen’s Park.

The campaign has been highly dynamic and the final results bear little resemblance to the results going into the election. The NDP has seen a profound improvement in their fortunes and jumped from 21 points just two months ago to 41 points just around the time of the final debate. Since then, however, they have fallen back and their four-point lead has turned into a four-point deficit. The Liberal Party, meanwhile, is suffering catastrophic losses, although they have staunched the bleeding in the last week of the campaign. [More...]

Without Significant Changes, Doug Ford on Track for Majority Government

[Ottawa – June 1, 2018] As we enter the final week of the campaign, the Ontario NDP have started falling back, while the Ford-led Progressive Conservatives have opened up a clear, four-point lead. The Liberals are stuck at 19 points with no plausible path to victory. [More...]

Race Deadlocked

With just eight days until Election Day, the NDP finds itself locked into a statistical tie with the Progressive Conservatives. While the NDP enjoys a half-point lead over the PCs, the underlying regional patterns suggest that the PCs hold a significant advantage in terms of seat efficiency. Indeed, if these numbers hold, we will almost certainly be looking at some form of PC government on June 7th. The Liberals, meanwhile, have been stuck below 20 points for some time now. [More...]

A Volatile Electorate Producing a Newly-Tied Race

[Ottawa – May 25, 2018] With just 13 days until Ontarians cast their ballots, the NDP has seen a significant shift and now holds a statistically insignificant lead over the PCs in what is becoming a highly volatile race. Meanwhile, at just 20 points, the Liberals are being squeezed out of what has morphed into a two-way race and it appears that their 15-year reign may be drawing to a close. [More...]

PCs Hold Solid Lead, but Momentum Favours NDP

[Ottawa – May 22, 2018] With barely two weeks to go until Ontarians hit the polls, the NDP are picking up momentum with both the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals falling back modestly. If these numbers were to apply to the election, they would almost certainly produce a PC majority. However, the upward momentum for the NDP and the decline of the Liberals bring in the clear possibility of other outcomes. [More...]

Ontario PCs Enjoy Clear Lead

[Ottawa – April 6, 2018] Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives have a clear lead which would produce a majority it there were to be an election tomorrow. However, current polling does not provide the basis for a comfortable forecast of the next Ontario election; there isn’t an election tomorrow and the Ontario Liberals have shown surprising resilience in the last three provincial elections. [More...]

At the Crossroads of Hope and Fear

[Ottawa – January 23, 2018] In this unique ‘populism project’ we are conducting with Canadian Press we are trying to gain a better understanding about what many are calling the rise of populism. That term is inadequate to deal with the range of experience and attitudes which are underpinning this movement. A partial list of the closely related concepts relevant to this includes authoritarianism, an ordered versus open outlook, nativism, isolationism, and xenophobia. Questions swirl as to what these forces mean, what is driving them, and how they are distributed in Canada. [More...]

VIDEO: Canada’s Political Divides

Does Canada run the risk of a populist revolt? Frank Graves appears on The Agenda with Steve Paikin to discuss the country’s deepening ideological divides. [More...]

Here’s a Simple Idea: Most Canadians Want a Strict Ban on Guns in Our Cities

[Ottawa – December 4, 2017] Canadians are never far removed from a horrific story of gun violence. Whether it is the reports of ever escalating carnage in the United States, or the milder but still deeply concerning incidents in Canada, this problem is seen as blight on modern society. While Canada has only about one-seventh of the deaths per capita from gun violence that the United States endures, it is around the top of the list for other advanced western societies.

Interestingly, Canada explored a national long gun registry in the wake of the massacre of… [More...]

Open versus Ordered

CULTURAL EXPRESSIONS OF THE NEW OUTLOOK

Please click here for the full report and data tables.

[Ottawa – October 10, 2017] There has been a fair bit of debate about whether the core drivers of the new populism are economic or cultural in nature. This latest version of what we used to call materialism or idealism is an important but unsolvable riddle at this point. Did economic stagnation and despair beget rising xenophobia and nativism or were these cultural expressions really the prime mover. Our sense is that both are equally important but the… [More...]

Through a Lens Darkly

SHIFTING PUBLIC OUTLOOK ON THE ECONOMY AND SOCIAL CLASS

Please click here for the full report and data tables.

[Ottawa – October 10, 2017] Increasingly, the old ideological battles of left versus right are being supplanted by a new contest for the future. As Daniel Bell argued over 50 years ago, the new axis of dispute is more open versus ordered. This harkens back to classic works such as Aural Kolnai’s 1938 The War Against the West and Karl Popper’s The Open Society and Its Enemies. Once again, we are seeing a rise in… [More...]

Political Landscape Deadlocked

TAX PROPOSALS NOT HURTING GOVERNMENT, MAY WELL HELP

Commissioned by The Canadian Press

[Ottawa – October 3, 2017] The horserace has remained remarkably stable over the summer and the apparent oscillations and movements that one would gather from looking at different polls are not expressed in our research. Indeed, all five parties find themselves within the margin of error of where they were in June. At 34 points, the Liberals are holding steady and are statistically tied with the Conservatives, who are a mere one point behind. At 15 points, the NDP is in a distant third… [More...]

North America at the Crossroads

Inward or Outward?

By Frank Graves

This article was published in the September-October 2017 issue of Policy Magazine.

[Ottawa – September 1, 2017] Attitudes to trade wax and wane as the issue fades in and out of political discourse. We have now entered a moment where debates about trade are occupying centre stage in the political arena.

Attitudes to trade aren’t simply about how to create a more prosperous economy: they also reflect broader cultural orientations to the external world, groups from different racial origins, and attitudes to issues such as climate… [More...]

Housing Affordability Crisis?

DEPENDS WHERE YOU LIVE, YOUR SOCIAL CLASS, AND YOUR AGE

[Ottawa – June 27, 2017] Housing affordability is a national issue, but it really depends on where you live, how old you are, and your social class. At the national level, a plurality of Canadians say that housing is unaffordable where they live, compared to just one in seven who would rate housing as affordable. Affordability is approaching near crisis levels in Vancouver and Toronto, which are by far the two most unaffordable markets in Canada. The vast majority of respondents in these two markets rate housing as… [More...]

British Columbians Providing Tepid Mandate for NDP-Green Partnership

[Ottawa – June 29, 2017] With the announcement that the Green Party of British Columbia would provide support to an NDP minority government, we asked British Columbians what they thought of this partnership. With 43 per cent of BC residents supporting this agreement, the mandate for this deal is quite tepid. Nevertheless, of those who have an opinion, the lean is to give this partnership a try.

While we did not ask provincial vote intention in this survey, we can look at how support for the NDP-Green partnership varies by federal party support. Support is –… [More...]

Canadians Hold Grim View of the Economy

LESS THAN ONE IN FIVE CANADIANS APPROVE OF DONALD TRUMP

[Ottawa – June 25, 2017] The outlook on the Canadian economy remains, in a word, awful. Economists and market watchers may be optimistic about our economic performance, but consumers and workers are decidedly underwhelmed, as the numbers remain locked in historical lows. For starters, only 16 per cent of Canadians feel that they have moved ahead over the last year; this is less than half of the number who feel they have fallen behind (38 per cent). Longer-term progress is no better, with just 21 per cent indicating… [More...]

Canada 150: The National Mood and the New Populism

Gauging the national mood at Canada 150 in a carefully constructed sample of nearly 6,000 Canadians, this piece assesses how Canada is looking at its political options and how this connects to its economic outlook and a variety of other new forces.

[Ottawa – June 24, 2017] The voter landscape doesn’t mean much as we are still two years away from an election; but it does reveal some interesting new features. Most notably, we see a tightened race with the Conservatives enjoying a post-leadership bounce from the election of Andrew Scheer. The Liberals maintain a slight… [More...]

Pick Up the Phone – Pollsters Know What They’re Doing

[Ottawa – April 25, 2017] The election of Donald Trump last November shocked most observers of U.S. politics. The major consensus predictions favoured a Clinton victory by an overwhelming margin. Heading into election night, The New York Times pegged the odds of a Clinton victory at 85%. Others published similarly high odds for a Clinton win, including: FiveThirtyEight.com (71% chance), Huffington Post (98% chance), PredictWise (89% chance), the Princeton Election Consortium (99% chance), and Daily Kos (92% chance).

In hindsight, these predictions, in their overwhelming certainty, seemed more like science fiction than scientific probabilities. How could the overwhelming consensus drawn from so many have gotten it so wrong? Coming from the same species that once thought the earth was flat and that parachute pants were stylish, we really shouldn’t be so surprised. But more importantly: WHO DO WE BLAME? [More...]