A CAREFUL LOOK AT THE FAULT LINES AND TRAJECTORIES
[Ottawa – April 11, 2014] Using an unusually large random probability sample (4,134 Canadian adults), which covers the on- and offline segments of Canada’s population, as well as both those who rely on landlines and cell phones, we can chart where the voter landscape is right now. Our data also provide methods for analyzing voter mobility since the last election. Coupled with basic barometers of approval and dominant issue tracking, we can get an excellent fix on where the voters are today and how they arrived where they are today. As the… [More...]
[Ottawa – April 9, 2014] – Our latest Ontario poll will come as something as a disappointment for those hoping for some kind of dramatic shake-up in Ontario’s horserace. While the Ontario NDP has picked up three points since July, nudging the Progressive Conservatives ever so gently down to third place, the overall picture remains largely stable. The Liberals are holding steady at 32 points, with the NDP sitting closely behind at 29 points. At 27 points, the Progressive Conservative Party remains well within striking distance of the first-place Liberals.
Frank Graves appears on CBC’s Power and Politics with Evan Solomon to discuss the Quebec election results and the issues that are important to Quebeckers.
[Ottawa – April 8, 2014] After an exciting month-long campaign, the 41st Quebec general election has come to a close and we at EKOS are pleased that we accurately projected Philippe Couillard’s victory on Monday. Indeed, we succeeded in capturing all four major parties – the Quebec Liberals, the Parti Québécois, the Coalition Avenir Québec, and Québec Solidaire – to within the margin of error of yesterday’s election outcome.
We also succeeded in noting the overall stability of the campaign. While we compiled our poll results three full days… [More...]
Quebeckers Reject Referendum Adventure as it Appears They Have Already Emotionally Separated from Canada
[Ottawa – April 4, 2014] As a rather unusual campaign nears completion, it appears that Pauline Marois’ gambit to secure a majority mandate and a path to a new referendum, has gone horribly wrong for her and the Parti Québécois (PQ). Barring some frankly unforeseeable collapse Philippe Couillard’s Liberal party is going to emerge with a victory on Monday. It is unclear whether it will be a majority or not, but the high hopes of a PQ win, let alone a majority, lie in ruins. The wild… [More...]
IMAGINING THE DEFINING ISSUE OF THE 42ND ELECTION
FEBRUARY 21, 2014
Now that we’ve all had a chance to pick through the entrails of a fairly low-key federal budget, let’s ask the questions: What does it tell us about the next election? How do we place this budget within the evolving political landscape? What does this fiscal plan reveal about broader changes to our society and democracy? Finally, how does this connect to what we believe to be the most fundamental political challenge of our age – the diminution of the middle class and the collapse of the ethic of… [More...]
PUBLIC WISDOM ON THE CBC, HOCKEY, AND SOCHI (WITH A POLLING THOUGHT EXERCISE)
[Ottawa – February 7, 2014] After years of being in the crosshairs of many Conservatives, the CBC faces some unprecedented challenges. An internal memo from the President spoke of “dark clouds” facing the corporation. The ardently antagonistic rivals at Sun News have recently published an Abacus poll noting that the Canadians are “ready” to sell the CBC. This result is very inconsistent with other polling on the CBC, although it is very consistent with the policy preferences of the sparsely viewed Sun Network.
Whether one sees… [More...]
ETHICS AND ACCOUNTABILITY COULD BE PIVOTAL ISSUE IN NEXT ELECTION
[Ottawa – January 30, 2014] In our latest poll, the Liberals and the Conservatives are in a near tie. At just under 30 points, the Conservative Party is nipping at the heels of the gently sliding Liberals. who hold a narrow three-point lead which disappears when we turn to our likely voter model. The NDP remains in third place, but they are holding steady at 24 and they are within striking distance of both parties
JANUARY 3, 2014
3.0 Progress’ End? Some New Evidence
While taking some grim satisfaction at noting the clarity of the fall of the middle class and the rise of inequality as a pinnacle issue, we are now interested in moving the conversation from diagnosis to prescription. For those convinced that all is well with the economy and that people are still more likely to be moving forward than standing still or sliding backward, we have some new data that puncture that fiction. While the data aren’t perfect and the analysis is pretty much a first cut, we think that… [More...]
ARE WE APPROACHING A CRISIS OF DEMOCRACY?
JANUARY 3, 2014
2.0 The Longer Term Patterns of Trust in Government
Let’s start with the deep historical context in upper North America. Perhaps the biggest change among a plethora of structural changes in our society has been the shift from a more trusting collectivist society to a more individualistic society – one that is wary of the state and public institutions. The deferential and conformist societies of the post Second World War gave way to the counter culture and protest of the sixties and seventies and the transformation continues to this day. While… [More...]
2013 IN REAR-VIEW MIRROR AND THE YEAR AHEAD
December 31, 2013
In this three-part series, we are going to examine the public perspective on 2013 and try and glean some insights about what this might mean for the year ahead. This review will start with a fairly frothy snapshot of the winners and losers of the past year. We will also tread into the realm of prediction using a “wisdom of crowds” approach. Will Stephen Harper retire? Will there be a surprise election this year? Who do the public see as the likely winner of the next election? How will… [More...]
COMMENTARY BY FRANK GRAVES
[Ottawa – December 20, 2013] As we examine the past year through the lens of our most recent poll, there are some interesting patterns and conclusions. Few of these will provide much seasonal cheer to the beleaguered Conservative Party. They seem mired at 26 points; a precipitous fall from the majority heights of 2011. Yet, despite a bruising year of problems with issues around ethics and accountability, our rough adjustments for what an election based on those who actually show up would look like shows a three-way dead heat. This sets the stage for the inevitable return… [More...]
LESS THAN HALF OF CANADIANS SEE THEMSELVES AS MIDDLE CLASS
[Ottawa – December 19, 2013] As temperatures plummet, the political landscape appears to have frozen in place, with the Liberals holding a steady six-point lead. The Conservatives, meanwhile, are closing out an annus horribilis and are mired at a historic low of 26 points. The NDP is in third place at 23 per cent.
A somewhat resurgent Green Party (having recently doubled their contingent of MPs) is now capturing nearly one in ten voters, which is one of few glimmers of good news for reeling Conservatives, who benefit immensely from vote-splitting on… [More...]
[Ottawa – October 31, 2013] Over the last few days, a handful of pundits have meticulously reviewed the results to our latest poll and have raised concerns over the apparent over-representation of university graduates in our sample. Typically, survey results are weighted by age, gender, and region, and now some have suggested that we should also be weighting for education. We would like to take this opportunity to respond to some of these concerns.
In total, 1,377 Canadian adults responded to our survey. After the results were weighted for age, region, and gender, we were left with the following educational… [More...]
ADDENDUM TO OCTOBER 29 RELEASE
Click here for the latest federal vote intention numbers: Federal Vote Intention (October 30, 2013)
FAR MORE CANADIANS BELIEVE DUFFY THAN HARPER
[Ottawa – October 29, 2013] The recent Senate spending scandal is registering strongly with voters and shaping up to be a truly frightening shock to this government’s prospects as they try to hit the reset button in lead up to their Halloween Eve convention. It comes on the heels of a series of setbacks which finds the government in its most precarious position since it assumed office some seven plus years ago.
It is important to remember, however, that Stephen Harper has come back before and it would be foolish to count him out. Nevertheless… [More...]
(AND WHAT DO YOU WANT YOUR FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO DO ABOUT IT?)
[Ottawa – October 17, 2013] As most Canadians blithely ignore the Speech from the Throne (our past research shows about 10 per cent follow this event), we thought it would be worthwhile to review what is truly on the minds of Canadians today. Whereas the north of the Queensway crowd is all atwitter about the throne speech, the preoccupations and attention of average Canadians are decidedly elsewhere. What are those concerns? Is there a correspondence to the framing document for the government’s agenda and the salient concerns of the… [More...]
CONFIDENCE IN NATIONAL DIRECTION NEARS ALL-TIME LOW
[Ottawa – October 16, 2013] Three months ago, things were looking up for the federal Conservatives. The fireworks and revelry of Canada Day were drumming up confidence in national direction and, with the media’s preoccupation with Senate scandals fading away with the summer heat, the Conservative Party pulled its way into a statistical tie with the newly resurrected Liberals.
It seems, however, that with the onset of fall and a renewed focus on federal affairs, Conservative fortunes have drifted away along with the summer. The Liberals now hold a commanding 10-point lead over the Conservative… [More...]
PUBLIC PREFERENCES ON LONG-TERM TRAJECTORY SHIFTS
Click here for the full report: Full Report (July 26, 2013)
[Ottawa – July 26, 2013] Consider the long term future from the perspective of the average Canadian. The short term outlook doesn’t look that bad. Fears of job loss are much lower than in the nervous nineties. The economy may have been basically stagnant since the September 11th attacks, but hey, we aren’t Spain, let alone Greece. But this might be the end of the good news. The same mythical average Canadian has experienced essentially zero real growth in income or standard of living… [More...]
HARPER FAILS TO IMPROVE IMAGE DESPITE RISE IN PARTY FORTUNES
[Ottawa – July 23, 2013] If there has been one issue plaguing Thomas Mulcair since he was elected Leader of the NDP more than a year ago, it is not the “Angry Tom” label used by his political opponents, nor it is his questionable driving tactics. Rather, it is simply that Canadians are not familiar with him. For months, when asked whether they approve or disapprove of his performance, nearly half of Canadians have not felt confident enough to express an opinion.