[Ottawa – October 31, 2013] Over the last few days, a handful of pundits have meticulously reviewed the results to our latest poll and have raised concerns over the apparent over-representation of university graduates in our sample. Typically, survey results are weighted by age, gender, and region, and now some have suggested that we should also be weighting for education. We would like to take this opportunity to respond to some of these concerns.
In total, 1,377 Canadian adults responded to our survey. After the results were weighted for age, region, and gender, we were left with the following educational… [More...]
ADDENDUM TO OCTOBER 29 RELEASE
Click here for the latest federal vote intention numbers: Federal Vote Intention (October 30, 2013)
FAR MORE CANADIANS BELIEVE DUFFY THAN HARPER
[Ottawa – October 29, 2013] The recent Senate spending scandal is registering strongly with voters and shaping up to be a truly frightening shock to this government’s prospects as they try to hit the reset button in lead up to their Halloween Eve convention. It comes on the heels of a series of setbacks which finds the government in its most precarious position since it assumed office some seven plus years ago.
It is important to remember, however, that Stephen Harper has come back before and it would be foolish to count him out. Nevertheless… [More...]
(AND WHAT DO YOU WANT YOUR FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO DO ABOUT IT?)
[Ottawa – October 17, 2013] As most Canadians blithely ignore the Speech from the Throne (our past research shows about 10 per cent follow this event), we thought it would be worthwhile to review what is truly on the minds of Canadians today. Whereas the north of the Queensway crowd is all atwitter about the throne speech, the preoccupations and attention of average Canadians are decidedly elsewhere. What are those concerns? Is there a correspondence to the framing document for the government’s agenda and the salient concerns of the… [More...]
CONFIDENCE IN NATIONAL DIRECTION NEARS ALL-TIME LOW
[Ottawa – October 16, 2013] Three months ago, things were looking up for the federal Conservatives. The fireworks and revelry of Canada Day were drumming up confidence in national direction and, with the media’s preoccupation with Senate scandals fading away with the summer heat, the Conservative Party pulled its way into a statistical tie with the newly resurrected Liberals.
It seems, however, that with the onset of fall and a renewed focus on federal affairs, Conservative fortunes have drifted away along with the summer. The Liberals now hold a commanding 10-point lead over the Conservative… [More...]
PUBLIC PREFERENCES ON LONG-TERM TRAJECTORY SHIFTS
Click here for the full report: Full Report (July 26, 2013)
[Ottawa – July 26, 2013] Consider the long term future from the perspective of the average Canadian. The short term outlook doesn’t look that bad. Fears of job loss are much lower than in the nervous nineties. The economy may have been basically stagnant since the September 11th attacks, but hey, we aren’t Spain, let alone Greece. But this might be the end of the good news. The same mythical average Canadian has experienced essentially zero real growth in income or standard of living… [More...]
HARPER FAILS TO IMPROVE IMAGE DESPITE RISE IN PARTY FORTUNES
[Ottawa – July 23, 2013] If there has been one issue plaguing Thomas Mulcair since he was elected Leader of the NDP more than a year ago, it is not the “Angry Tom” label used by his political opponents, nor it is his questionable driving tactics. Rather, it is simply that Canadians are not familiar with him. For months, when asked whether they approve or disapprove of his performance, nearly half of Canadians have not felt confident enough to express an opinion.
[Ottawa – July 19, 2013] – After an exciting few months that saw the Ontario Liberals vaulted from last place to first to second to first again, it appears that Ontario’s political landscape is beginning to settle as Canadians break for the summer. While the five-point lead enjoyed by the Ontario Liberals in May has discreetly shrunk to a slightly less comfortable three-point margin, the overall picture has remained relatively stable.
The Ontario Liberals lead their Progressive Conservative rivals 31.9 to 28.9. The NDP, meanwhile, is enjoying a modest rebound after watching their support gradually slide over three consecutive polls and… [More...]
LITTLE EVIDENCE THAT CANADIANS ARE PAYING ATTENTION TO A PLACID POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
Click here for the full report: Full Report (July 18, 2013)
[Ottawa – July 18, 2013] Nearly 3,000 Canadians generously put down their BBQ tools last week and gave their views on a political landscape which doesn’t seem to be producing much interest or movement. Those breathlessly waiting public response to the latest iteration of the Harper Cabinet will have to look elsewhere as this poll was concluded toward the end of last week. But here is a bold prediction. There will be little if any effects in a… [More...]
Click here for a PDF version of these charts: EKOS Poll (May 2013)
This poll was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. We used a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research.
The field dates for this survey are May 22-26, 2013. In total, a random sample of 3,318 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of 2,662 decided voters). The margin of error associated with the total sample is… [More...]
WHAT REALLY HAPPENED?
May 29, 2013
Click here for the full report: Post BC Election Review (May 29, 2013)
The provincial election in British Columbia produced a major gap between the forecasts based on polls and the results of the actual election. While the polls had shown a narrowing race and we had an unweighted tie in our final poll, it appeared that the NDP still enjoyed a modest lead and that they were ticketed for some form of government. This was shockingly not the case and the BC Liberals went on to form a majority government. In fact, looking at… [More...]
[Ottawa – 22 mai 2013] – Selon un nouveau sondage commandé par la Coalition canadienne de la santé (CCS) et la Fédération canadienne des infirmières/infirmiers (FCSI), les Canadiens sont majoritairement d’avis que l’accès aux médicaments d’ordonnance devrait dépendre des besoins médicaux des malades et qu’ils sont, pour la plupart, en faveur d’un régime d’assurance-médicaments universel afin que tous les citoyens puissent se procurer les médicaments d’ordonnance que nécessitent leurs besoins médicaux. La CCS et la FCSI ont confié aux Associés de recherche EKOS le soin de mener auprès des Canadiens et Canadiennes un sondage d’opinion touchant la couverture des… [More...]
[Ottawa – May 22, 2013] – A new poll commissioned by the Canadian Health Coalition (CHC) and the Canadian Federation of Nurses Unions (CFNU) reveals that a clear majority of Canadians feel that access to prescription drugs should be based on the patient’s medical needs, and most would support a universal drug plan to ensure that all Canadians are covered for medically necessary prescription drugs. The CHC and CFNU commissioned EKOS Research Associates to conduct a survey of Canadians’ views on prescription drug coverage in Canada. The survey was conducted online with 1,041 Canadians from across the country. Fieldwork… [More...]
By Frank Graves
[Ottawa – May 14, 2013] – Trust has become a scarce societal resource. This isn’t a recent problem and the decline of trust has been a steady downward march for the past 40 years in upper North America. Only about one four citizens believe they can trust their federal governments (it either Ottawa or Washington) to do the right thing. Contrary to views that this precipitous decline in trust is caused by specific events (e.g., Watergate, Sponsorship), the evidence shows that there are much bigger cultural forces at play.
[Ottawa – May 13, 2013] – As the British Columbia provincial election draws to a close, we see a considerably narrower race as voters head to the polls. We have created a model of most likely voters and the results are shown below. This model basically removes those who did not vote in the 2009 BC Election, as well as those who did the 2011 federal election, as our research has shown that these individuals tend to continue to not vote. We have also excluded those who could not recall where their polling station is located (for similar reasons).
Based on… [More...]
LIBERALS ENJOY HIGHEST SUPPORT LEVELS SINCE NOVEMBER 2005
[Ottawa – May 8, 2013] – It has been less than a month since Trudeau’s landslide leadership victory and his party has been vaulted into a commanding 12-point lead. At nearly 39 points, the Liberals are within striking distance of a majority government, a feat the party has not achieved in over seven years. The Conservatives, meanwhile, sit at just over 26 per cent while the NDP is holding steady after its nearly 10-point decline since August of last year. The NDP slide almost directly coincides with the appearance of Justin Trudeau and… [More...]
[Ottawa – April 20, 2013] – From Wednesday to Friday of this week, we interviewed a representative sample of some 1,828 English speaking Canadians to gauge reactions to the recent ads about the new leader of the Liberal Party. These ads were introduced by the Conservative Party immediately following his election to leader. Unlike surveys which rely on memories or second hand impressions, the entire sample viewed one of two different ads using digital media. Both ads received very similar responses, and the overall responses are summarized here.
The ads were widely recognized. More than one-third of respondents claimed to… [More...]
IS THE FOREIGN-BORN VOTE SWINGING BACK TO THE LIBERALS?
[Ottawa – April 19, 2013] The two largest demographic forces in Canadian society are aging and immigration. Both of these are profoundly altering the political landscape and both of these forces have been favoured CPC fortunes in recent years. Here we will focus on how immigration is altering political fortunes of different parties and speculate as to how this augurs for the future. We will also look at attitudes to immigration itself, how this is evolving in Canada and how this links to party preference (and other factors).
Canada is a rapidly pluralizing… [More...]
[Ottawa – April 16, 2013] Fidelity isn’t one of the strong points of Canadian voters but Thomas Mulcair seems to be suffering a bit of a loyalty problem with his new party.
A year after assuming the leadership of the NDP and the office of the leader of opposition, he is experiencing significant difficulties. He hasn’t seen anything in the polls which could be termed a disastrous or precipitous fall — but he has seen a slow slide which will become a disaster if it isn’t corrected.
He remains what would have been unimaginable just two years ago: leader of the Official… [More...]
ONTARIO ELECTION UNLIKELY IN NEAR FUTURE
[Ottawa – April 16, 2013] – Back in February, our poll showed that Kathleen Wynne had been successful in breathing new life into the Ontario Liberal Party. The party had elected a new leader and, as is typical in the wake of a widely-covered and highly-energized leadership race, party supporters across the province were ecstatic. The party jumped from the losing end of a three-way tie to enjoying a small but statistically significant lead over the two opposition parties.
Two months later, the Ontario Liberal Party is holding steady. The Progressive Conservative Party (PC), however, has… [More...]