Latest Results and Current Stories
RESOUNDING THUMBS DOWN ON WHAT IS CONSIDERED A WASTEFUL AND UNNECESSARY PROJECT
[Ottawa – May 22, 2015] First, the good news for the government: most Canadians are blissfully unaware of the government’s plans to erect a giant monument to the victims of communism on the front lawn of the Supreme Court. This location will skilfully occlude that despised institution with a huge celebration of things arguably dear to the government’s re-election plans and ideologically consistent with their cold war era views of Godless commies. Now the bad news: when presented with the concept and graphic illustrations, a representative… [More...]
UNDERSTANDING A NEW THREE-WAY FEDERAL RACE
[Ottawa – May 22, 2015] We have seen the NDP in the lead more than once during the last three years and we have also seen tight three-way races. But we have not seen that since Justin Trudeau assumed leadership of the Liberal Party and today’s horserace looks strikingly different than what we saw five months out from the last election. In this update, we are trying to do three things. First, we would like to establish that this is a real and important shift. Second, we will offer some reasoned conjecture… [More...]
…BUT SHOULD WE HAVE BETTER POLLING YARDSTICKS?
[Ottawa – May 7, 2015] After an exciting month-long campaign, the 29th general election of Alberta general election has come to a close and we at EKOS are pleased that we accurately projected Rachel Notley’s majority victory. There were, however, some incongruities between our last poll and the final election results. We overestimated the Alberta NDP by 3.7 per cent and underestimated the Progressive Conservative Association by 5.3 points. Both differences fall outside the margin of error (albeit barely). Our final poll results for the Wildrose Party, the Alberta Liberal Party… [More...]
[Ottawa – May 8, 2015] Despite a heavily publicized budget, the Liberals appear to be closing the gap and are now tied with the Conservatives, who are now at 30.3 points and have seen a gentle erosion in their support since their peak of 35 points in early February. The current government effectively “sold the farm”, as it were, pulling out all of the stops and sparing no expense in marketing what was clearly a highly visible budget. In the end, however, the budget was not well received. Conservative fortunes have stalled, virtually eliminating any chance of an early election… [More...]
POOR SEAT EFFICIENCY MAY KNOCK THE PCS TO SINGLE-DIGIT SEAT TALLY
[Ottawa – May 4, 2015] In what has been the most unusual election campaign in recent memory, Alberta’s NDP appears poised for a historic breakthrough. It seems that Mr. Prentice’s gambit to secure a fresh mandate has backfired and, given the vagaries of Alberta’s first-past-the-post electoral system, the party that has enjoyed 12 consecutive majority governments may very well be relegated to third place.
Of course, the wild card in all of this will be turnout. The NDP do extremely well with younger generations (who… [More...]
[Ottawa – May 1, 2015] Overall, vote intention seems frozen in amber as the three lead parties have been stuck oscillating within tiny ranges over the past few weeks. While nothing is changing in aggregate, there are interesting shifts in certain segments which seem to reflect the impact of a highly visible budget that was forcefully communicated to Canadians through all of the communication tools available to an incumbent. Yet even now, we see that attention is flagging. The Conservatives are hanging on to a just barely significant lead over Justin Trudeau’s Liberals – well short of the… [More...]
ALBERTA NDP LEAD RE-INFORCED BY VOTE SPLITTING
[Ottawa – April 30, 2015] This week’s poll results present a radical change from the 2012 Alberta provincial election and we are looking at a very real possibility of Alberta switching governments for only the fourth time in its history. Overall, there are three very interesting stories underlying these results:
1.) Breathtaking change is possible
After 43 years and 12 consecutive majority governments, it appears that Albertans may well be sending the Progressive Conservative Association to the showers. Indeed, with these figures, the NDP is not… [More...]
[Ottawa – April 24, 2015] There is nothing really of note in the vote intention numbers this week. We see the usual array of fluctuations in the regional and demographic samples, but the overall pattern is one of stasis. One gets the feeling that the public will only truly begin to engage now that the budget has been delivered. The coming month will be highly revealing as to who is in a good position to triumph in the fall.
At this time, we would like to pause and look at a couple of critical issues which often get obscured… [More...]
[Ottawa – April 10, 2015] If only eight percent of voters shifted their current vote intention, we would have a dead heat across the three lead parties. The voter landscape is shifting in ways that do not appear to favour Stephen Harper’s Conservatives who now find themselves under 29 points for the first time since the security bounce from last October propelled them into a small but significant lead (which now appears to have evaporated). They now (insignificantly) trail Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and see less than a six-point margin over a clearly rejuvenated NDP.
Despite the sliding fortunes for… [More...]
[Ottawa – April 2, 2015] The discipline of a fixed election date is increasingly drawing voter attention and we are seeing a pretty stable vote intention landscape. There are, however, some paradoxical disconnections between key trends in the dominant issues and concerns of Canadians and the recent relative success of Stephen Harper’s Conservatives. In short, the public now see their economy in a recession and give the government lousy marks on broad national direction. The dominant media issues of terror and security are no longer tracking in the government’s favour and the Prime Minister has the… [More...]
CAN THE OPPOSITION CHANGE THE CHANNEL FROM MIDDLE EAST TO MIDDLE CLASS?
[Ottawa – March 27, 2015] Our latest polling shows an insignificant but continued decline in Liberal fortunes. The Liberals are now below 29 points for the first time in a long time and the long-term trend is not positive. The Conservatives, while down from a high of 35 points, now enjoy a small but statistically significant lead based on the Liberal decline.
The real story here, however, may be a gradual but significant rebound in NDP fortunes, who have climbed from below 18 points… [More...]
DECLINING SUPPORT FOR EXTENSION WHICH IS NOW EVENLY SPLIT
[Ottawa – March 26, 2015] The ISIS mission continues to receive majority support, but this support is beginning to soften and is increasingly divided across partisan leanings and other key fault lines. This pattern of waning public support is familiar and was seen in the case of the Afghanistan mission. The initial blend of moral outrage and emotional chauvinism linked to the serial barbaric atrocities of ISIS will be tempered by more rational appraisal of the pros and cons of the mission as time goes on… [More...]
By Frank Graves
[Ottawa – March 12, 2015] Canada has been singularly successful in solving the postmodern riddle of the clash of civilizations. While Europe and America have torn themselves apart over issues of immigration and race, Canada has been remarkably spared this particular affliction. All of this may be drawing to a close.
Under the forces of growing economic and cultural insecurities linked to security and terror, we are seeing a sharp erosion of our openness to diversity and immigration. Moreover, these issues are now prominent in the rhetoric of the political parties jostling for position in… [More...]
[Ottawa – February 27, 2015] Well, it’s well short of a wave and not very crushing, but the NDP seems to be the only mover in an otherwise frozen voter landscape. Whether this new Orange Hiccough will develop into anything more impressive remains to be seen; but the NDP has risen from the depths of high teens to 22 points and there is some alternative evidence that they may be doing a bit better than that (our live interviewer test shows that they receive more of the Bloc vote than is recorded to our more impersonal robot)… [More...]