[Ottawa – October 6, 2015] The Conservatives hold a stable but narrowing lead over the Liberal Party which has been moving up in the past week. The NDP, meanwhile, has declined and the party is plateaued right now.
There has been some confusion regarding the differing results being published by various pollsters in recent weeks. However, we have seen a clear and sustained Conservative lead and we are confident that this is not some statistical anomaly. We saw Conservative Party starting to rise on the 12th of September, moving into a clear lead on the 16th… [More...]
[Ottawa – October 2, 2015] With just 17 days until Election Day, the Conservative Party holds a clear (albeit somewhat narrowed) lead. Our poll of last week was controversial at the time as no one else was showing a clear Conservative lead. Our internal daily tracking (now being shared after the fact) shows that the Conservative Party has held the lead for 15 consecutive days and they now find themselves in roughly the same range as where they were at this stage of the 2011 election campaign.
IDEA OF COALITION GOVERNMENT REMAINS POPULAR EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE CONSERVATIVE BASE
This survey was sponsored by La Presse. The full article is available here.
[Ottawa – September 24, 2015] In the span of one week, what was a three-way race has become a Conservative lead with the Liberals and NDP trailing. Whether these movements are the result of the government’s handling of the Syrian refugee crisis, the announcement of a budget surplus, Harper’s debate performance, his challenging of the Niqab ruling, or something else is unclear, but the party is recovering the constituencies that were key to… [More...]
WHAT ARE THE FORCES SORTING THE ELECTORATE AND WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR PARTIES IN THE HOME STRETCH?
[Ottawa – September 17, 2015] As one of the most protracted campaigns in political history lurches to the midpoint, it might be helpful to take stock of what we know. We begin by noting that we don’t have much idea of what to expect on October 19th, but we do know a few things not to expect. We also have a clearer idea of the key forces that are underpinning voter choice (and which ones aren’t). It is also clear… [More...]
RECONSIDERING THE ROLE OF VALUES AND EMOTIONAL ENGAGEMENT
[Ottawa – September 11, 2015] Over the past week there has been an outpouring of reactions to the Syrian refugee crisis that run from concern to horror. The searing image of the drowned three year old pushed the issue to the centre of media attention at a critical time – in the midst of a federal election campaign. The ensuing reaction to this has been a pretty broad sense that Stephen Harper’s Conservatives were emphatically on the wrong side of this and that it would have a catastrophic impact on… [More...]
NDP EMERGING AS THE HOME FOR THE MOST DISAFFECTED WITH INCUMBENT
[Ottawa – August 14, 2015] Nothing definitive has emerged from this week’s polling. The race remains very tight with the NDP having plateaued, but they are still hanging on to a slight lead over a pretty moribund Conservative Party. The Liberals are showed some signs of life and may be closing the gap somewhat.
We saw that the debate did generate attention and impacts but the effects dissipated as we got further away from that event in time. But the debate did have at least… [More...]
[Ottawa – July 17, 2015] There is not much going on out there in summer vacation land, but we do see some modest shifts in our most recent polling. While everyone is focussed on cottages, pools and BBQs, let’s try and set the stage for the inevitable return to what is going to be an exceedingly important and interesting campaign. We will begin by noting what we see as some of the relatively stable and important features of the voter landscape.
First of all, the outcome of the next election, at this stage is as clear… [More...]
[Ottawa – June 19, 2015] The NDP continues to hold on to an insignificant lead, but they have been brought back to Earth by the return of Gilles Duceppe in Quebec and a mild resuscitation of the flagging Liberal and Conservative fortunes. There is some encouraging news for the Liberals who have seen a mild rebound, which is possibly linked to the major announcements of early week. This rebound has left the Liberal Party only five points out of the lead, half the distance they encountered last week.
The brief ascension of the NDP to… [More...]
OPPOSITION TO BILL C-51 NOW A CLEAR MAJORITY
[Ottawa – June 12, 2015] For five of our last six polls, the NDP has improved its standing with Canadian voters and the party now stands at 33.6 per cent, a 16-point improvement over its modern low just four months ago. The NDP have nearly double the support that they did this time out from the 2011 election. Support for the Conservatives and the Liberals, meanwhile, continues to languish with the two parties standing at 27 points and 23 points, respectively.
The NDP sits just three-points ahead of… [More...]
PUBLIC DEEPLY SKEPTICAL ABOUT MOTIVES FOR ALTERNATIVE DEBATES
[Ottawa – June 3, 2015] The debates are the most viewed event of any campaign. While there are mixed views about the actually efficacy of the debates in shaping electoral outcomes, there is no question that they are the pivotal spectacle of the campaign. Our new polling confirms the salience of the debates as a resource for presenting the leaders and their platforms to voters in the later stages of the campaign.
Claimed deficiencies in the traditional debate model have been raised as a basis for calling for… [More...]
[Ottawa – May 29, 2015] The NDP has fallen back slightly and the Liberals have risen slightly; all of these changes are of little (if any) statistical significance, but the net result is to confirm a new normal of a three-way race. What is most striking about this new normal is the frankly tepid level of enthusiasm for any of the above. The NDP are the clear movers and beneficiaries of the changes over the past few months, but they are still sub-thirty and slightly below their 2011 result. The Liberals are up significantly from 2011, but have… [More...]
RESOUNDING THUMBS DOWN ON WHAT IS CONSIDERED A WASTEFUL AND UNNECESSARY PROJECT
[Ottawa – May 22, 2015] First, the good news for the government: most Canadians are blissfully unaware of the government’s plans to erect a giant monument to the victims of communism on the front lawn of the Supreme Court. This location will skilfully occlude that despised institution with a huge celebration of things arguably dear to the government’s re-election plans and ideologically consistent with their cold war era views of Godless commies. Now the bad news: when presented with the concept and graphic illustrations, a representative… [More...]
UNDERSTANDING A NEW THREE-WAY FEDERAL RACE
[Ottawa – May 22, 2015] We have seen the NDP in the lead more than once during the last three years and we have also seen tight three-way races. But we have not seen that since Justin Trudeau assumed leadership of the Liberal Party and today’s horserace looks strikingly different than what we saw five months out from the last election. In this update, we are trying to do three things. First, we would like to establish that this is a real and important shift. Second, we will offer some reasoned conjecture… [More...]
…BUT SHOULD WE HAVE BETTER POLLING YARDSTICKS?
[Ottawa – May 7, 2015] After an exciting month-long campaign, the 29th general election of Alberta general election has come to a close and we at EKOS are pleased that we accurately projected Rachel Notley’s majority victory. There were, however, some incongruities between our last poll and the final election results. We overestimated the Alberta NDP by 3.7 per cent and underestimated the Progressive Conservative Association by 5.3 points. Both differences fall outside the margin of error (albeit barely). Our final poll results for the Wildrose Party, the Alberta Liberal Party… [More...]