Latest Results and Current Stories
A LITTLE LESS MORAL PANIC, A LITTLE MORE PUBLIC JUDGEMENT, PLEASE
By Frank Graves
[Ottawa – October 28, 2014] If we were to pick one date that demarcates the period of Western decline (and upper North American decline in particular), it would be September 11th, 2001. On that fateful day, the triumphal optimism celebrated in the End of History was halted by a whiplash-like inversion of the traditional balance of security and other issues such as civil liberties.
Although not obvious at the time, Canada participated at least as enthusiastically in this new… [More...]
By Frank Graves
Presentation to the 2014 #Can2020 Conference
October 2, 2014
Click here for a PDF version of this presentation: Rethinking the Public Interest (October 2, 2014)
MODERN LOWS FOR NATIONAL DIRECTIONAL APPROVAL AS CITIZENS SEEK A “BOLD NEW VISION”
By Frank Graves
[Ottawa – October 1, 2014] In a major new survey of public attitudes and values, we find a pretty stable political landscape which is increasingly unreceptive to another Stephen Harper government. Not only would the government be in no position to aspire to repeat its 2011 success, it may not even achieve leader of the opposition with these numbers. While we find this scenario unlikely, the continued flagging of Conservative Party fortunes now renders this a real possibility. Indeed, Stephen Harper’s regal… [More...]
September 29, 2014 (Ottawa) Probit Inc., one of Canada’s leading survey research companies, is asking the CRTC to explain why it believes that professional researchers who survey Canadians are actually telemarketers. On September 10 the CRTC demanded extensive information about every telephone call made by Probit from October 2012 and September 2012, and in the same letter told Probit that it had already decided that Probit was telemarketing by offering people prizes to encourage them to participate in surveys.
Applications filed today by Probit with the CRTC ask it to give the company a chance to defend itself before… [More...]
BY FRANK GRAVES
[Ottawa – September 19, 2014] Twenty-five years ago, Francis Fukuyama penned a seminal essay titled the “End of History?” This essay claimed that liberal capitalism had triumphed. This celebratory conclusion was noted in the dissolution of state socialism and the ascendance of the United States to hyperpower status1 and the provocative notion that the dialectical tensions of history had ended and the riddle of history had been solved in American supremacy. At the end of the century, the ascension of a growing and optimistic middle class in the last half of the twentieth century seemed… [More...]
THE SHIFTING MEANING OF MIDDLE CLASS
By Frank Graves
Presentation to the Queen’s 2014 International Institute on Social Policy
August 19, 2014
Click here for a PDF version of this presentation: From the End of History to the End of Progress (August 19, 2014)
A CAUTIONARY TALE
“Kudos needs to go to EKOS Research, the only firm to call two of the three main parties within two percentage points. In terms of the eventual outcome, their poll was probably the most informative, though they had the NDP too low.”
- Éric Grenier, ThreeHundredEight.com
[Ottawa – June 17, 2014] Looking back at the Ontario election, we were very pleased to have predicted not only the victor, but also the majority. Only one other firm made this correct forecast. While we are very happy with the nearness of our… [More...]
[Ottawa – June 13, 2014] After an exciting month-long campaign, the 41st Ontario general election has come to a close and we at EKOS are pleased that we accurately projected Kathleen Wynne’s majority victory. Indeed, our final poll captured both of the frontrunners to within the margin of error.
We also succeeded in noting the relative stability of the campaign, which is why we were confident in calling a Liberal victory as early as June 5th, noting that Wynne had an excellent shot at a majority government… [More...]
WYNNE LIKELY HEADED FOR MAJORITY
[Ottawa – June 11, 2014] – Wynne has recaptured what was a highly stable, modest lead (37.3 per cent, versus 31.3 for the Progressive Conservatives). The about-to-conclude 41st Ontario general election has been an interesting and closely contested contest. It featured an unusually stark choice between two highly contradictory policy visions – a minimal government, austerity platform which assigns responsibly for growth and prosperity to the private sector and a progressive state model which sees government as both a source of insulation from the fallout of a slow-moving economy and as an agent of… [More...]
LIBERALS APPEAR HEADED TO A MAJORITY
[Ottawa – June 11, 2014] – In a very important last-minute development, we see the race re-establishing its stable pattern from the pre-debate period. The Liberals now have a highly statistically significant lead of six points (36.6 per cent to 30.2 per cent) which places them not only in range of victory, but in majority territory. The evidence seems to show that the debate effect has followed a common pattern of dissipating and the electorate have reverted to the positions they held in the first three weeks of the campaign.
IT DOESN’T GET ANY CLOSER THAN THIS
[Ottawa – June 10, 2014] – In what has been a pretty remarkable campaign we have nearly unprecedented murkiness in terms of the final outcome of a neck and neck race. For all intents and purposes, we now see a dead heat in terms of all eligible voters for the third night in a row. Our (slightly) adjusted likely voter model shows a shrinking and small advantage for Wynne’s Liberal party. At this stage, only a heroic guess would yield an estimate as to the victor and we simply don’t see any… [More...]
[Ottawa – June 9, 2014] – In our rolling poll of the last three days, the new normal of the campaign has emerged – a dead heat between Wynne’s Liberals and Hudak’s PCs. In fact, in the 1,331 randomly sample voters that we interviewed, exactly the same proportion picked Hudak as picked Wynne. This sees the Ontario Liberals surrendering a pretty stable roughly five-point advantage they had sustained for most of the campaign. It also sees the surge that we saw on Thursday for Hudak (a seven-point advantage in that day of polling) revert to an exact deadlock. Where things… [More...]
[Ottawa – June 7, 2014] – The Progressive Conservative surge of yesterday appears to have halted and our three-day roll now finds them in a statistically insignificant lead, but trailing on likely voters. More notably, the large single night lead which vaulted them back in to parity in the race does not appear to be continuing. The race is now basically tied and the outcome remains highly uncertain. The very large bump that disrupted the stable Liberal lead appears to have dissipated and, in fact, the Liberals enjoyed a modest lead last night. The net result is a basic tie… [More...]
[Ottawa – June 6, 2014] – In a major shift, the results from our polling today have placed the Progressive Conservatives into a statistically insignificant lead over the Ontario Liberal Party. Although there are some peculiar things in the sample and the effect is largely concentrated in cases sampled today, the results are highly statistically and substantively significant. This very significant surge in support for Tim Hudak’s PC party disrupts what had been a very stable pattern of a modest but significant lead for Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal Party. While she still has a slight lead with likely voters, she must… [More...]
ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY SEEMS CHARTED FOR WIN
[Ottawa – June 5, 2014] – There is still a week to go in the campaign and the dynamics of turnout are very much uncertain. There are, however, some clear conclusions evident from charting the rhythms of the campaign and the situation post-debate. Barring some frankly unlikely shift in the campaign dynamics, Wynne appears to be on her way to victory, with an excellent shot at a majority. The only critical obstacle at this stage is turnout. Given the contradictory polling out there and the modest nature of the lead (five points)… [More...]
[Ottawa – June 4, 2014] – The Ontario race is still up in the air but Wynne continues to hold the upper hand. Factoring in last night’s 515 cases into our rolling poll we see a narrowed lead for Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal party. At 36.4 points, hold a 5-point advantage over their Progressive Conservative rivals. The NDP remains in third place at 19.3 points.
It would be a mistake to attribute this tightening to the… [More...]