Summary:
This study has presented evidence which strongly suggests that in the subject ridings there was a targeted program of voter suppression in place. It was reported to be administered to tens of thousands of electors based on these samples.
These activities were clearly targeted at non-Conservative voters in a highly improbable manner. They included erroneous reports of false voting station changes and faux calls ostensibly coming from Elections Canada. In reality, there were no calls from Elections Canada and there were virtually no voting station changes, yet many thousands of voters in these seven ridings claimed to have received these… [More...]
April 24th, 2012 | Category: Uncategorized | Comments (2)
COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES
[Ottawa – March 23, 2012] First of all, let me heartily congratulate you on having won what certainly seemed to be Canada’s longest ever readership race. No one doubts your endurance and that will be important. You may have found the leadership process gruelling but you have just stepped into the midst of what will undoubtedly become Canada’s longest federal election campaign. The crucial pre-campaign period used to begin maybe three to six months before the writ was dropped. This pre-campaign is clearly already on with attack ads targeted at the interim leader of the… [More...]
March 23rd, 2012 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves | Leave a comment
DISENTANGLING MYTHS AND REALITIES
[Ottawa – March 23, 2012] The two most remarkable features of our current political landscape are the Stephen Harper-led majority government and an NDP opposition. Both of these phenomena are inextricably connected in ways many do not recognize. These shared connections and forces also define the limits and opportunities for the future of these two movements. Our focus here is the NDP but let’s quickly note that the received wisdom of the inevitability of the Conservative Party’s ascendance to majority status, and that they are on the cusp of a stable political dynasty, was decidedly not the… [More...]
March 23rd, 2012 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves | Leave a comment
RETHINKING CANADA’S PLACE IN THE WORLD
Click here for the study results presented to the 2012 Walter Gorond Symposium in Public Policy: 2012 Walter Gordon Symposium Presentation (March 20, 2012)
March 21st, 2012 | Category: Economy, International issues, National Results | Leave a comment
A STARKLY DIVIDED CANADA
[Ottawa – March 16, 2012] – For some time, Canadians were relatively unique in the advanced western world by virtue of their aversion to ideological compartmentalization. In an essay in the lead up to the NDP leadership convention and the government’s imminent budget, we will be looking at these longer term trends and their implications for the state of politics and democracy in Canada.
We note that the single most powerful predictor of the constellation of values which one adheres to is one’s self identified ideological orientation. Therefore, the tracking of this indicator can be a useful proxy… [More...]
March 16th, 2012 | Category: National Results | Comments (1)
BREWING GENERATIONAL TENSION?
[Ottawa – March 9, 2012] – In the spirit of moving polling from the realm of the mercurial fluctuations of politics, we conclude this series with a long look backward and a long look forward. Using this generational lens, we will show how the rear view and future view are clouded and darkening, and that the gloomiest perspectives are centered in what are typically the most optimistic portions of society, the next generations. Using time series, we will chart how this backward and forward looking has changed over the past several years. Sadly, the picture is not at… [More...]
March 9th, 2012 | Category: National Results | Leave a comment
BURGEONING CONCERNS WITH INEQUALITY
[Ottawa – March 5, 2012] – Budgets are the most attentively followed and important legislation that Governments produce. In a climate of growing economic anxieties where the Government has staked out the economy as its principal focus, this is even more so. On top of that, we have a federal government reeling from a nasty controversy over a potential vote suppression scandal which has seen its honeymoon period abruptly replaced with the NDP opposition nipping at their heels in the polls. To state that the budget will be important in this context would be a major understatement… [More...]
March 6th, 2012 | Category: Election Issues, National Results | Comments (2)
…BUT OMINOUS SIGNALS FOR GOVERNMENT AND C-30 SEEN IN URGENT NEED OF REVISIONS
[Ottawa – March 2, 2012] – Having argued that there is little point in focussing on a nonexistent horse race, current events render the obligatory vote intention check up a little more meaningful. While there is no horserace, an occasional glimpse at voter intention can be a useful indicator of moral authority, particularly in a period where a still fairly fresh majority government is being buffeted by rising controversy.
Nearly a year after the election, the Conservative Party is well short of their May 2nd position and is now… [More...]
March 2nd, 2012 | Category: National Results | Comments (4)
COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES
[Ottawa – January 26, 2012] The only smoke visible in Liberal Canada these days is coming from the scorched earth of May 2nd. It may therefore not be that surprising that the party would resort to some more pyrotechnic measures to reignite its fortunes. On the surface, the resolution to not just decriminalize but to legalize pot seems more of a Hail Mary than a sound strategic foundation for renewal. But is this really that hazy? When one looks at the longer term patterns of public opinion, and considers the truly available constituencies for the… [More...]
January 26th, 2012 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves, Economy | Leave a comment
[Ottawa - January 14, 2012] Follow the link below for our complete six-part series titled “Beyond the Horserace”.
In this series, we examine the changes that have occured since May’s election, the flaws in our political system that were exposed as a result, and the opportunities they present.
Click here for complete six-part series: Beyond the Horserace (January 14, 2012)
Click here for the complete data tables for this series: Data Tables
January 14th, 2012 | Category: Economy, Election Issues, National Results | Leave a comment
[Ottawa – January 14, 2012] One of the limitations of current media polling is that the pollster and media client tend to select the topics it wants to talk about and frames the questions in a way that s/he thinks is appropriate. Pollsters typically do so in a fair and balanced manner but, even if that standard is met, the universe of discourse is set by the pollster, not the public. In this exercise, we reverse the usual process and have a statistically representative sample of the public pick the conversations they deem to be the most important. We will… [More...]
January 14th, 2012 | Category: Election Issues, National Results | Leave a comment
[Ottawa – January 13, 2012] Following a tough slog through democratic trust and alternative institutional arrangements for the future perhaps a more familiar review of approval ratings can serve as a light interlude before we conclude with Canadians’ predictions for election 2015 (yikes!) and their selected top preferences for national conversations.
Chart 4.1 is fairly self-explanatory. Let’s start with Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Our most recognized leader produces the same polarized responses that we saw on the directional number for the federal government. With 34 per cent approval he slightly exceeds his party’s standing and he enjoys near universal approval amongst… [More...]
January 13th, 2012 | Category: Election Issues, National Results | Leave a comment
[Ottawa – January 13, 2012] Predictions are indeed hard, especially about the future as Yogi Berra once opined. Yet the public seem to have little difficulty offering their speculations about the next election, however distant it might appear now. Is this the wisdom of crowds, mob psychology, or just wishful thinking? Who knows, but there are some surprising areas of consensus in the Canadian public about 2015, and they don’t look much like the received wisdom in the chattering classes and fifth estate.
Using two different methods, we arrived at basically the same conclusions about the public prognostication for that now… [More...]
January 13th, 2012 | Category: Election Issues, National Results | Leave a comment
POST-PARTY POLITICS?
[Ottawa – January 13, 2012] If democratic malaise is a serious and growing problem in Canada, particularly in the half of the population under our rising median age (now 42), what can and should be done about this? We see that concern with rates of voter decline is muted among those still voting and we see a cleavage on whether this is a serious issue lining up along generational lines. By way of illustration, a modest majority of all Canadians did not support the decision to leave the Kyoto accord but, opposition dramatically outstripped support among those… [More...]
January 13th, 2012 | Category: Election Issues, National Results | Leave a comment
A NATIONAL CHECK-UP
[Ottawa – January 13, 2012] It will come as little surprise that our review of Canada’s democratic health produces some spotty results. What may be more interesting is what the trend lines are, what seems to be producing trust and mistrust and which aspects of our democracy is seen as most in need of attention. There are some ironies and contradictions as well which will become clearer as we consider the issue of alternatives to the status quo and how prominently issues of democracy reckon in the public hierarchy of preference national conversations. Some ‘alternatives’ may be contributing… [More...]
January 13th, 2012 | Category: Election Issues, National Results | Leave a comment
THE LONGER TERM VIEW FROM THE PUBLIC
[Ottawa – January 12, 2012] Is there anything sadder than a pollster without a horserace? The fever pitch of real and imagined perturbations in an electorate vibrating to the vagaries of minority governments has been displaced by the serenity of a clear majority government. Not only are the Conservatives ascendant in the House of Commons, they have a clear majority in the Senate and are refashioning public institutions such as public service, the courts, and the media to support their goal of a new era with Conservatives as the new “natural governing party”. Stephen… [More...]
January 12th, 2012 | Category: Economy, Election Issues, National Results | Leave a comment
TIME TO TAKE THE DISCRETIONARY OUT OF DEMOCRACY?
By Frank Graves
[Ottawa – October 21, 2011] – In something of a nadir, the recent Ontario Election, in which a number of big issues were on the table, couldn’t summon the participation of even half of the citizenry. Have we passed the brink from democracy to oligarchy? While on pattern with a disturbing downward trajectory in voter participation, this movement into the realm where the majority of citizens aren’t voting may be a wakeup call for those who think that elections shouldn’t becoming a fringe activity. What may make matters worse is that… [More...]
October 24th, 2011 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves, Ontario | Leave a comment
[OTTAWA – October 7, 2011] – Ontario’s 2011 election was exciting and offered a number of surprises and we at EKOS are pleased that not only did we accurately project the popular vote, we believe we did a good job in charting the direction of the election. For instance, we were the first to call a Liberal victory in our September 27th release.
We learned a number of important lessons from the May 2nd federal election and we have invested a great deal of time and resources into tweaking our model to more accurately reflect the varying voter turnout rates among… [More...]
October 7th, 2011 | Category: Ontario, Provincial Results | Leave a comment
… AND A FEW COMMENT ON WHY THIS ISN’T OUR MOST IMPORTANT POLL
[Ottawa – October 5, 2011 (evening)] – In our final poll, we offer two sets of numbers: all eligible voters and those we believe are most likely to vote. We don’t do this in the interest of doubling our chances of getting it right. Our best guess at a forecast is the most likely voter number, We do, however, think the other number is at least as important for other reasons and that the final closeness of polling numbers to the outcome isn’t best yardstick of “good” polling.
Good… [More...]
October 5th, 2011 | Category: Ontario, Provincial Results | Leave a comment
[Ottawa – October 5, 2011 (morning)] – In what would have been unthinkable as little as a week ago, McGuinty’s Liberals appear headed towards a majority. Our three-day roll-up of more than 2,000 Ontario residents puts the Ontario Liberal Party at 39.0 per cent, a full nine points ahead of the Progressive Conservative Party who now stand at 29.7 per cent. The Ontario NDP, meanwhile, is at 23.1 points and the Green Party is sitting at 6.6.
We now turn to the question of what happened. Just ten days ago, our polls showed the Ontario Liberals with a small (albeit statistically… [More...]
October 5th, 2011 | Category: Ontario, Provincial Results | Comments (1)
