[Ottawa – April 26, 2016] We begin with a look back at the aftermath of the 2011 election. The Conservatives had just won a convincing majority government. The NDP, a party that had never garnered more than 20 per cent of the popular vote, made history by forming the Official Opposition for the first time. Meanwhile, the Liberals had been nearly annihilated and, after watching their seat tally decline for four consecutive elections, seemed to be spiralling into oblivion.
In the wake of the 2011 election, we saw mass confusion and misinterpretation of the future, with… [More...]
[Ottawa – April 19, 2016] We could speculate that the recent rise in trust in government might dampen the urgency associated with electoral reform, which leads to the question of whether it would be worth the thorny problem of opening up electoral reform at this time. Our research shows that the public at this time are still uncomfortable with the current first-past-the-post system, preferring instead some modified form of proportional representation. On the question of electoral reform and whether a referendum would be necessary, there is no clear consensus. In fact, quite the opposite… [More...]
[Ottawa – April 18, 2016] The Liberals remain at stratospheric levels. The dip we saw in our last poll may be receding and the party is going strong at 44 points. The Conservatives are fairly stable, but at 29 points, they are well back of the Liberals. At 12 points, the NDP sits in a distant third place.
What is remarkable is the uniformity of the Liberal Party’s support across various demographics. Liberal support is consistent across all gender and age cohorts. These results are dramatically different from the fractured landscape that we saw… [More...]
LIBERALS STRONG, BUT FALLING BACK TO EARTH
[Ottawa – March 31, 2016] Looking at vote intention polls three and half years from an election is like having a fling; amusing, but doesn’t mean much. There are, however, some striking features relevant to the upcoming political calendar.
For the most part, the latest poll resembles the election outcome. Yes, the Liberals are up almost three points from October 19th, but they seem to be coming to Earth after enjoying a stratospheric lead. The Conservatives are basically stuck at their 2015 election result, although they are up somewhat… [More...]
CBC commissioned EKOS Research Associates to conduct a survey of Canadians’ views on the economy, energy, and the environment.
Click here for the full report: Full Report (March 17, 2016)
Click here for the data tables: Data Tables (March 17, 2016)
Overview of Findings
Results reveal that Canadians are torn between a rising environmental ethic and deep anxieties about the economy. While there is strong sympathy for greater regulation and investment in a post carbon future, there is equally broad recognition that our energy resources are a critical ingredient of our economic future… [More...]
[Ottawa – January 26, 2016] In a new poll, we find the new government enjoying a remarkable and almost unprecedented level of support from the Canadian public. This is even more impressive when we consider the backdrop of continued gloom about the economy with less than one in five feeling the economy is growing. It is clear that the public are extending some patience to the new government in this ocean of goodwill. We will also show that amidst this otherwise unremittingly dark economic outlook, there is a significant spike in medium term optimism. The public will see… [More...]
AN UNPREDICTABLE PATH TO A PREDICTABLE OUTCOME
By Frank Graves
This article was published in partnership with the Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP). Full article available here.
[Ottawa – January 11, 2016] The 42nd federal election was a unique and historically important election. The public judgement expressed in this election reveals some clear features of our changing society. And by exploring the true meaning and significance of this election, we hope to highlight how these results point to a broader and fairly significant redirection of Canadian society as a whole.… [More...]
[Ottawa – December 3, 2015] When Parliament resumes later today, Justin Trudeau will enter the House of Commons with a majority of seats. Last night, Evan Solomon met with Frank Graves to do discuss how the Liberals were able to leapfrog from third place to first place.
Click here for the inside story of how the Liberals became the dominant force, both federally and provincially, and for a discussion about the challenges that lie ahead for the Liberals, the Conservatives, and the NDP (skip to 24:20):
Everything is Political with Evan Solomon (December 2, 2015)
By Frank Graves
November 26, 2015
The following presentation was delivered to the Forum on Public Opinion Polls from the 2015 Federal Election hosted by the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA) on November 26, 2015.
For more information about about the MRIA, please visit their website: http://mria-arim.ca/
The data presented here is drawn from a post-election survey conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology. The field dates for this survey are October 20-23, 2015. In total, a random sample of 1,973 Canadian adults aged 18 and… [More...]
A MIXED BLESSING FOR JUSTIN TRUDEAU?
[Ottawa – November 11, 2015] The 42nd federal election produced a result that seemed extremely unlikely at the outset of the campaign. In this brief note, we look at two fairly simple indicators of how the election was received and what perceived impacts the election will have on the country. We will look at basic satisfaction with the election and how it compares with the previous one. We will then turn from the rear view mirror to the future. What are the expectations about the future? How do citizens hope or imagine… [More...]
…BUT ONLY IF THEY DON’T SEE IT
This survey was conducted on behalf of La Presse
The full article is available on their website here.
[Ottawa – November 6, 2015] Support for decriminalizing marijuana is up insignificantly from last year, but our long-term tracking shows a clear shift in favour of loosening Canada’s marijuana laws over the last decade. Fully 71 per cent do not believe possession of small amounts of marijuana should be a crime, a dramatic change from 2000 when Canadians were evenly split on the issue. With three of the four federalist… [More...]
EKOS VERSUS THE ACTUAL RESULTS
“The Liberal Party of Canada is poised to return to power with at least a clear minority and possibly a majority.”
-EKOS’ final prediction, October 18th, 2015
[Ottawa – October 20, 2015] After an exciting 78-day campaign, the 42nd Canadian general election has come to a close. We at EKOS believe we did a very good job in charting the direction of what was a rollercoaster campaign. In the end, we correctly predicted that the Liberals would return to power (and we noted the possibility of a majority), although… [More...]
Special thanks go to Earl Washburn and Graham Pressey, who were the principal investigators in creating this seat forecast.
[Ottawa – October 19, 2015] With just hours to go until the polls close, EKOS is offering a seat projection based on what we believe to be perhaps the strongest riding prediction model extant at this time. We have been constantly refining our model which is populated with the nearly 130,000 cases we have collected since January. We have made a number of qualitative adjustments based on each riding’s history and candidates.
SENIORS MOVE BACK TO LIBERALS IN A BIG WAY
[Ottawa – October 18, 2015] In a major development, the weekend reveals a late but clear movement to the Liberals. At 36 points, the Liberals have a four-point lead over the Conservatives and are now poised to recapture power after nearly a decade in the political wilderness. This movement is rooted in a shift of the critical seniors’ cohort and a strengthening of their lead in Ontario. It may well be that Hurricane Hazel was a key force in both of these movements.
LIBERALS OPENING UP DAYLIGHT?
[Ottawa – October 18, 2015] With less than 24 hours to go until the polls open, it appears as though vote intentions are relatively fixed, although the Liberals may be opening up a bit of headroom. At 34.3 points, the Liberals hold a statistically insignificant lead over the Conservatives, who are at 32.6 per cent. The NDP is at 21 points and there are no signs of any last minute shifts.
Quebec has transitioned into an unclear four-way race. With just a seven-point spread separating the NDP, the Bloc, the Liberals, and… [More...]
EVIDENCE POINTS TO LONG MONDAY NIGHT NAIL-BITER
[Ottawa – October 17, 2015] We have upped our game in trying to discern the winner of what is shaping up to be a historically important federal election. We have run parallel HD-IVR and live interviewer surveys. We have significantly increased the sample size in the home stretch. We have double- and triple-checked the sample diagnostics. We have even done formal experiments with different ballot questions. Despite all of this, we still see the final outcome as very fuzzy.
Nothing is much different in this more richly resourced polling… [More...]
CONSERVATIVES HOLD SLIGHT ADVANTAGE AMONG EARLY VOTERS
[Ottawa – October 16, 2015] As we enter the final weekend before Election Day, vote intentions appear to be settling in. At 34 points, the Liberals hold a marginal lead over the Conservatives who are at 33 points. At 23 points, the NDP are well back in terms of popular support, but the rather efficient distribution of their support means they will likely still be looking at a fairly impressive seat count on Monday.
The Liberals continue to lead in the key battleground of Ontario, although there is some… [More...]
RACE NOT OVER
[Ottawa – October 15, 2015] As we sit less than four days out from Election Day, there is precious little to report. While we thought at the beginning of the week that the race would be clarified by now, it isn’t. The gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives has narrowed slightly and the Liberals’ advantage is no longer statistically significant. The NDP remains in third place, although they are still a major player in this election.
Regionally, Ontario continues to look very positive for the Liberals, while Quebec is looking very positive… [More...]