About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Canadians Respond to Surprising Victory of Donald Trump

20161125_slide01

LARGELY NEGATIVE REACTIONS, BUT CONSERVATIVES MAY BE SEEING A ‘TRUMP BUMP’

By Frank Graves

[Ottawa – November 25, 2016] As the dust settles on the rather unlikely victory of Donald Trump to the highest office in the world, Canadians are trying to make sense of what this new normal will mean for them, the country, and the world. They are also trying to grasp the best route forward for the federal government with a very different U.S. regime than expected. There is considerable anxiety about these issues but there is also some surprising resonance in some places.… [More...]

The Public Outlook on Electoral Reform

20161205_slide23

What do Canadians want?

The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves #ERRE, a conference on electoral reform at the University of Ottawa on November 3, 2016.

Please click here for a PDF copy of this presentation.

20161205_slide01

20161205_slide02

20161205_slide03

20161205_slide04

The Public Outlook on Electoral Reform and Democratic Renewal

20161101_slide12

WHAT DOES THE CITIZENRY WANT?

By Frank Graves

This article was published in the November-December 2016 issue of Policy Magazine.

[Ottawa – November 1, 2016] The issue of electoral reform is of great importance to citizens. The issue does not produce the same visceral immediacy as debates about health care, climate change, and economic stagnation. It does, however, find its roots in deep historical shifts in the relationships between citizens and their governments.

We are going to try and distil the public preferences for moving forward on these issues. There… [More...]

One Year Out: Where Do Canadians Stand?

20161024_slide8

GOVERNMENT IS BACK

[Ottawa – October 24, 2016] The Liberals continue to defy the laws of political gravity. With the party at a staggering 47 points, the protracted honeymoon clearly signals something deeper than mere regime change. At 26 points, the Conservatives are still very much hanging around. While this may not seem terribly impressive on the surface, they retain a solid base, which is especially impressive given that they are operating under an interim leader. The NDP, however, looks to be in deep trouble – they have gone from clear contenders for government to being on the… [More...]

The Case for Internet Voting

20161023_slide1

IF YOU BUILD IT THEY WILL COME

[Ottawa – October 23, 2016] The most ubiquitous transformation of our society has been the digital revolution. Whether this has had a net beneficial impact on standard of living or democratic health is unclear. It is the case that this third industrial revolution has occurred contemporaneously to a period of economic stagnation and a declining trust in government and democracy. What is clear is that the internet is the new universal mass media and that nearly everyone is online daily. Increasingly we do our shopping online, we bank online, and we… [More...]

The Public Outlook on Electoral Reform

20161020_slide09

What do Canadians want?

The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to the Special Committee on Electoral Reform on October 20, 2016.

Please click here for a PDF copy of this presentation.

Veuillez cliquer ici pour la version française.

A video of this presentation (as well as the Q&A period) can be found here.

Please click here for a copy of the questionnaire used to conduct this survey.

Please click here for the data tables for this survey.

Shifting Public Outlook

20160824_slide01

RETHINKING SOCIAL CANADA

The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to the 2016 Queen’s International Institute on Social Policy held from August 22-24, 2016 in Kingston, Ontario.

The conference was hosted by the Queen’s University School of Policy Studies:

“Canada has entered a new period of social policy interest at both the federal and provincial levels, with significant resources committed to social policy renewal. Given this new phase of policy action, it is time to stand back and reflect on the changes underway in Canadian society, the priority challenges facing us, and our capacity to develop… [More...]

VIDEO: Is Security a Priority for Canadians?

Evan Solomon speaks with Frank Graves, President of EKOS Research Associates, about where security issues rank among voter issues.

An Outsider’s Perspective

20160806_slide01

PROSPECTS FOR THE GREEN PARTY OF THE FUTURE

By Frank Graves

The following presentation was delivered by Frank Graves to the Green Party of Canada at its 2016 Convention in Ottawa on August 6, 2016.

For more information about the conference, please visit the Green Party of Canada’s website.

Click here for a PDF version of this presentation: An Outsider’s Perspective: Prospects for the Green Party of Canada (August 6, 2016)

20160806_slide01

20160806_slide02

Fear and Hope: Understanding the National Mood

20160723_slide10

[Ottawa – July 23, 2016] The summer has seen an unusual amount of drama ranging from the shocking Brexit result through racial violence in the United States and a seemingly endless barrage of serial atrocities; most recently the horrific carnage in Nice. A coup attempt in Turkey and civil war in Syria all contribute to the sense of danger which seems endemic to our age.

We also see the American voters flirting with the idea of Donald Trump as President of the United States, and several analysts have drawn the common linkages between the Brexit vote… [More...]

Political Landscape Stable as Canadians Enjoy the Summer Weather

20160721_slide2

[Ottawa – July 21, 2016] Canada’s political landscape appears locked in place as Canadians begin turning their attention to their cabins and barbeques. The Liberals are holding steady at 46 points, territory they have enjoyed for six consecutive polls stretching back to December. These results represent an interesting contrast to the Conservatives who, according to our polls, broke the 40-point mark only twice in their nearly ten years in office (once in 2008 and again in 2009). The NDP, which earlier this year seemed in danger of falling into fourth place behind the Green… [More...]

Public Transit Seen as Top Priority in the GTHA

20160628_002

BIG BOLD CHANGES CAN FIX A SYSTEM OFTEN SEEN AS INCONVENIENT; MOST DOUBT GOVERNMENTS PUT THE NEEDS OF PEOPLE AHEAD OF POLITICS; MOST EXPECT PUBLIC TRANSIT WORKERS TO BE PART OF THE CONVERSATION

[Ottawa – June 28, 2016] EKOS Research Associates, on behalf of ATU Canada, has completed a scientific survey of n=2,045 adults in the GTHA to provide an essential benchmark on how the public views the current state of public transit in the region and what they expect in the years ahead.

Remarkably, public transit stands at the pinnacle of issues of public concern… [More...]

Bold is Back

20160614_slide10

HARPER AND MULCAIR NOT

[Ottawa – June 14, 2016] The purpose of this report is to provide a retrospective on how citizens are scoring the parties and leaders after the first session of Parliament.

It has been nearly eight months since Canadians handed the Trudeau-led Liberals a majority government and yet the party continues to soar. At nearly 45 points, the party is showing no signs of waning. These numbers represent a truly breathtaking transformation from the political landscape just one year ago when the Liberals seemed to be headed to another third-place finish. They have… [More...]

Wise Crowds and the Future

20160422_slide4

[Ottawa – April 26, 2016] We begin with a look back at the aftermath of the 2011 election. The Conservatives had just won a convincing majority government. The NDP, a party that had never garnered more than 20 per cent of the popular vote, made history by forming the Official Opposition for the first time. Meanwhile, the Liberals had been nearly annihilated and, after watching their seat tally decline for four consecutive elections, seemed to be spiralling into oblivion.

In the wake of the 2011 election, we saw mass confusion and misinterpretation of the future, with… [More...]

Do We Need a Referendum on Electoral Reform?

20160418_slide11

[Ottawa – April 19, 2016] We could speculate that the recent rise in trust in government might dampen the urgency associated with electoral reform, which leads to the question of whether it would be worth the thorny problem of opening up electoral reform at this time. Our research shows that the public at this time are still uncomfortable with the current first-past-the-post system, preferring instead some modified form of proportional representation. On the question of electoral reform and whether a referendum would be necessary, there is no clear consensus. In fact, quite the opposite… [More...]

Liberals Still Feeling the Love, NDP not so Much

20160418_slide10

[Ottawa – April 18, 2016] The Liberals remain at stratospheric levels. The dip we saw in our last poll may be receding and the party is going strong at 44 points. The Conservatives are fairly stable, but at 29 points, they are well back of the Liberals. At 12 points, the NDP sits in a distant third place.

What is remarkable is the uniformity of the Liberal Party’s support across various demographics. Liberal support is consistent across all gender and age cohorts. These results are dramatically different from the fractured landscape that we saw… [More...]

Thomas Mulcair Faces Uncertain Future as NDP Languishes

20160331_slide2

LIBERALS STRONG, BUT FALLING BACK TO EARTH

[Ottawa – March 31, 2016] Looking at vote intention polls three and half years from an election is like having a fling; amusing, but doesn’t mean much. There are, however, some striking features relevant to the upcoming political calendar.

For the most part, the latest poll resembles the election outcome. Yes, the Liberals are up almost three points from October 19th, but they seem to be coming to Earth after enjoying a stratospheric lead. The Conservatives are basically stuck at their 2015 election result, although they are up somewhat… [More...]

Canadian Attitudes toward Energy and Pipelines

slide01_20160317

CBC commissioned EKOS Research Associates to conduct a survey of Canadians’ views on the economy, energy, and the environment.

Click here for the full report: Full Report (March 17, 2016)
Click here for the data tables: Data Tables (March 17, 2016)

Overview of Findings

Results reveal that Canadians are torn between a rising environmental ethic and deep anxieties about the economy. While there is strong sympathy for greater regulation and investment in a post carbon future, there is equally broad recognition that our energy resources are a critical ingredient of our economic future… [More...]

Justinphilia Continues Despite Deep Anxieties about the Economy

20160122_slide11

[Ottawa – January 26, 2016] In a new poll, we find the new government enjoying a remarkable and almost unprecedented level of support from the Canadian public. This is even more impressive when we consider the backdrop of continued gloom about the economy with less than one in five feeling the economy is growing. It is clear that the public are extending some patience to the new government in this ocean of goodwill. We will also show that amidst this otherwise unremittingly dark economic outlook, there is a significant spike in medium term optimism. The public will see… [More...]

The Reinstatement of Progressive Canada

20150111_slide01

AN UNPREDICTABLE PATH TO A PREDICTABLE OUTCOME

By Frank Graves

This article was published in partnership with the Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP). Full article available here.

[Ottawa – January 11, 2016] The 42nd federal election was a unique and historically important election. The public judgement expressed in this election reveals some clear features of our changing society. And by exploring the true meaning and significance of this election, we hope to highlight how these results point to a broader and fairly significant redirection of Canadian society as a whole.… [More...]