TURNING THE PAGE HASN’T CHANGED THE TREND

[Ottawa – February 4, 2010] - For the third week running the federal Conservatives and their Liberal opponents are virtually deadlocked in public support, and for the second week running the Liberals are showing a small numerical edge, but within the margin of error

“Clearly the strong trend away from the Conservatives, which is now more than three months underway, and the more recent trend to the Liberals, have slowed somewhat,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “This is not surprising since the Conservatives are now down closer to their core of most committed supporters.”

“That having… [More...]

February 4th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (5)

TORY VOTERS MORE SKEPTICAL ABOUT LOOSENING IMMIGRATION RULES

[Ottawa – January 28, 2010] – Canadians are giving the federal government strong support for its efforts in the aftermath of the devastating earthquake in Haiti earlier this month. However, this is not giving the ruling party the lift it might have expected in the race with the opposition parties.

Two-thirds of Canadians say the speed of the government’s actions is just right. Just over half say the scale of resources devoted to relief and reconstruction is just right. And while many Tory supporters don’t like the government’s decision to loosen immigration rules to… [More...]

January 28th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Leave a comment

SIGN THAT SHIFT MAY BE STRUCTURAL

[Ottawa – January 28, 2010] - For the second week in a row, the opposition Liberals are in a dead heat with the ruling Conservatives – now nominally ahead, in fact – a sign that the government’s adroit handling of the Haiti crisis has not reversed its steady decline in voters’ favour, which began mid-autumn.

“There is no evidence that the government’s actions on Haiti are providing any relief in the Conservatives’ decline from clear dominance of the political landscape in October to basic parity with the Liberals today,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “At this… [More...]

January 28th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (5)

“HAITI EFFECT” NOT YET BOOSTING TORIES

[Ottawa – January 21, 2010] - The federal Liberals have pulled into a virtual tie with the Conservatives in the past week – the first time they have drawn so close to the governing party since late summer.

“The Conservative Party has been in decline since mid-October,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “However, for the first time it is possible to say that the Liberals have also had a rebound – albeit a more modest one.”

The Liberals sunk into the mid-20 percent range in the fall after threatening to force an election. Today’s poll marks the… [More...]

January 21st, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (5)

MANY CANADIANS GRUMPY ABOUT COST OF OLYMPICS – ESPECIALLY IN B.C.

[Ottawa – January 14, 2010] – A slim plurality of Canadians say that too much is being spent on the Winter Olympic games to be held in Vancouver next month, although almost as many say that “just the right amount is being spent”. Just seven per cent say that too little is being spent.

“Perhaps the most startling element of this poll,” said EKOS President Frank Graves, “is that in British Columbia, there is a veritable landslide for those saying that too much is being spent on the Olympics. Obviously, the… [More...]

January 14th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (3)

PROROGATION KICKS KNEES FROM UNDERNEATH GOVERNMENT

[Ottawa – January 14, 2010] - In a stunning turnaround for the ruling Conservatives, who were comfortably in majority territory just three months ago, the Tories now find themselves struggling to stay ahead of the opposition Liberals.

“For those who have been speculating as to whether Canadians really care about the ‘obscure’ issue of prorogation the evidence is now incontrovertible,” said EKOS President Frank Graves.  “Canadians have noticed, they do care and this is having a very negative impact on Conservative fortunes.”

The 15-point lead the Conservatives enjoyed over the Liberals in mid-October has tumbled to just… [More...]

January 14th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (5)

CLEAR LEAN TO DISAPPROVAL

[Ottawa – January 7, 2010] – Most Canadians say they are aware of Stephen Harper’s decision to prorogue Parliament, and among those who are there is strong disapproval – by a margin of about two-to-one.

“The initial evidence is that Canadians are indeed paying attention to the issue of prorogation,” said EKOS President Frank Graves, “and they don’t like it.”

“The Conservatives may have prorogued in part to stem the tide of bad news coming from the parliamentary committee investigating the Afghan detainee issue. However, prorogation may actually be giving new momentum to the downward slide in Tory support… [More...]

January 7th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Leave a comment

ONE IN THREE CANADIANS NOW SUPPORT RULING CONSERVATIVES

[Ottawa – January 7, 2010] - Canada’s ruling Conservatives, who surged into a commanding lead and comfortable majority territory in the wake of Liberal threats to trigger an election in the fall, have sunk back hard.

The Conservative lead over the Liberals, which was as high as 15 percentage points in mid-October, is now about five. Two-thirds of Canadians who express a preference are now choosing one of the opposition parties to support.

At 33 points – a low not seen since the summer – a majority is a fantasy for the Conservatives for the… [More...]

January 7th, 2010 | Category: National Results | Comments (6)

Due to the upcoming holidays, we will be taking a short hiatus and we will return with an update on Canadian federal voting intentions on January 7, 2010.

Happy holidays and best wishes for the new year…

December 22nd, 2009 | Category: Uncategorized | Leave a comment

COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES

[Ottawa – December 17, 2009] – Many have commented on the dismal overall rates of voter participation in Canada (the anaemic rates declined to historical nadir in 2008). This lack of participation was particularly pronounced amongst the under-45 population; “Generation X” had weak voting rates, and the younger “Generation Y” stayed home in droves. This was in sharp contrast to the significant spike up in voting rates amongst young Americans in the last Presidential election (a crucial factor which propelled Obama to victory). In Canada, there was and is no current Obama analogue, and younger… [More...]

December 18th, 2009 | Category: Commentary by Frank Graves, Uncategorized | Comments (2)

CANADIANS WANT INTERNET VOTING IN FEDERAL ELECTIONS

[Ottawa – December 17, 2009] – Canadians strongly favour the introduction of voting over the internet according to a major poll of Canadians conducted by EKOS Research Associates for the CBC.

Nearly half of Canadians say they would “very likely” vote online if that option were available to them. Another 15% say they would be “somewhat likely” to do so.

Not surprisingly, young people, who have had lower rates of voting than their elders in recent years, are the most enthusiastic about internet voting.

“Canada’s already anaemic voter turnout hit a historic low in 2008,” said EKOS… [More...]

December 17th, 2009 | Category: National Results, Uncategorized | Comments (3)

[Ottawa – December 17, 2009] - The overall political landscape continues to drift back to a familiar steady state with no party poised to disrupt the pattern of minority governments. The most recent poll confirms that the steady but mild erosion of Conservative fortunes is a stable pattern and the new normal no longer has the Conservatives knocking on the door of a majority. To the contrary, they are back firmly in minority territory and they have surrendered their advantage of having been seen as moving the federal government in the right direction.

The numbers are now deadlocked and at 35.9… [More...]

December 17th, 2009 | Category: National Results | Comments (2)

BROAD DISSATISFACTION WITH FEDERAL TRANSPARENCY

[Ottawa – December 10, 2009] – The issue involving allegations of torture of prisoners handed off to Afghan authorities by the Canadian Forces is clearly a significant and possibly growing problem for the government.

A clear majority of Canadians believe that Canadian Forces handed off prisoners with the knowledge that they might be subject to torture (61% nationally and over 70% outside of CPC supporters). Of that, the vast majority (83%) believe that transferred prisoners were undoubtedly subjected to torture.

Turning to the question of satisfaction with the Government’s level of transparency and disclosure on this issue, it… [More...]

December 10th, 2009 | Category: National Results | Comments (1)

SOME EVIDENCE OF GENTLE EROSION IN CPC FORTUNES

[Ottawa – December 10, 2009] - The political landscape continues to show a gentle but progressive decline in Conservative fortunes. They have now clearly moved out of majority territory, having seen their support descend from the low 40s to the mid 30s. This places them below their election result of last year.

Notably, declining CPC fortunes have not resulted in greater support for the Liberals, but the margin between the two parties is now much smaller than it was just a couple of months ago.

More evidence of the declining fortunes of the CPC is… [More...]

December 10th, 2009 | Category: National Results | Comments (1)

IN ASSOCIATION WITH CBC NEWS NETWORK’S POWER AND POLITICS, EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES IS CONDUCTING SURVEYS USING QUESTIONS AND TOPICS SUBMITTED BY VIEWERS. EKOS PRESIDENT, FRANK GRAVES LOOKS AT THE RESULTS OF THIS WEEK’S SURVEY.

[Ottawa – December 3, 2009] – Despite announcements that the recession is over, we see an unusual pattern among the public where management of the economy continues to be the dominant election issue (named by 31%), followed by social issues (27%). While the environment and climate change continue to be important issues for Canadians (tied with fiscal issues at 18%), they have yet to reclaim the salience… [More...]

December 3rd, 2009 | Category: National Results, Uncategorized | Comments (1)

It is interesting to compare the first week of the polling period and the final week of the polling period.

Two notable findings are evident. First of all, the Conservatives’ lead dropped by two points (from 37.7 to 35.7). Secondly, the ten-point advantage that the government enjoyed on “right direction” for federal government evaporated in the second week where right and wrong direction were tied for the first time in two months.

Against the backdrop of the growing controversy of Afghan detainees, these trends bear careful monitoring.

Click here for results: update_to_release_november_26

November 26th, 2009 | Category: Uncategorized | Leave a comment

[Ottawa – Nov 26, 2009] - The extremely robust sample in EKOS’ latest survey of Canadians’ voting intentions (5,759 cases), conducted for exclusive release by the CBC, gives a deeper sounding of the Tories’ current ten-point lead over the second place Liberals.

Looking at segments of the Canadian electorate, the bedrock for the Tories is the group of Canadians over the age of 45.  The Conservatives do very well among baby-boomers. Their support among seniors is literally twice as high as among young people. Among Canadians under 45, the Conservatives fare less well, but no single party dominates these younger groups.

Indeed… [More...]

November 26th, 2009 | Category: National Results | Leave a comment

IN ASSOCIATION WITH CBC NEWS NETWORK’S POWER AND POLITICS, EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES IS CONDUCTING SURVEYS USING QUESTIONS AND TOPICS SUBMITTED BY VIEWERS. EKOS PRESIDENT, FRANK GRAVES LOOKS AT THE RESULTS OF THIS WEEK’S SURVEY.

[Ottawa – November 19, 2009] – This week’s special question looks at the issue of gun control in general, and the long-gun registry in particular. The results are highly revealing of a deeply fractured public on an emotionally charged issue. The research also shows that opposition to the long-gun registry may not be a good indicator of broader attitudes to gun control. In fact many people who… [More...]

November 19th, 2009 | Category: National Results | Comments (2)

[Ottawa – November 19, 2009] - EKOS Research Associates is pleased to announce that, starting today, its highly successful series of weekly polls conducted for exclusive release by the CBC will be moving into a new phase in cooperation with Evan Solomon’s Power and Politics program on the CBC News Network.

Later today, on Power and Politics, Evan will be releasing the results of a survey question suggested by a viewer.  We will be reporting on a similar viewer-suggested question every second week on Power and Politics.

The CBC will be selecting the question for each of these surveys, in cooperation with… [More...]

November 19th, 2009 | Category: Uncategorized | Leave a comment