A MIXED BLESSING FOR JUSTIN TRUDEAU?
[Ottawa – November 11, 2015] The 42nd federal election produced a result that seemed extremely unlikely at the outset of the campaign. In this brief note, we look at two fairly simple indicators of how the election was received and what perceived impacts the election will have on the country. We will look at basic satisfaction with the election and how it compares with the previous one. We will then turn from the rear view mirror to the future. What are the expectations about the future? How do citizens hope or imagine… [More...]
…BUT ONLY IF THEY DON’T SEE IT
This survey was conducted on behalf of La Presse
The full article is available on their website here.
[Ottawa – November 6, 2015] Support for decriminalizing marijuana is up insignificantly from last year, but our long-term tracking shows a clear shift in favour of loosening Canada’s marijuana laws over the last decade. Fully 71 per cent do not believe possession of small amounts of marijuana should be a crime, a dramatic change from 2000 when Canadians were evenly split on the issue. With three of the four federalist… [More...]
EKOS VERSUS THE ACTUAL RESULTS
“The Liberal Party of Canada is poised to return to power with at least a clear minority and possibly a majority.”
-EKOS’ final prediction, October 18th, 2015
[Ottawa – October 20, 2015] After an exciting 78-day campaign, the 42nd Canadian general election has come to a close. We at EKOS believe we did a very good job in charting the direction of what was a rollercoaster campaign. In the end, we correctly predicted that the Liberals would return to power (and we noted the possibility of a majority), although… [More...]
Special thanks go to Earl Washburn and Graham Pressey, who were the principal investigators in creating this seat forecast.
[Ottawa – October 19, 2015] With just hours to go until the polls close, EKOS is offering a seat projection based on what we believe to be perhaps the strongest riding prediction model extant at this time. We have been constantly refining our model which is populated with the nearly 130,000 cases we have collected since January. We have made a number of qualitative adjustments based on each riding’s history and candidates.
SENIORS MOVE BACK TO LIBERALS IN A BIG WAY
[Ottawa – October 18, 2015] In a major development, the weekend reveals a late but clear movement to the Liberals. At 36 points, the Liberals have a four-point lead over the Conservatives and are now poised to recapture power after nearly a decade in the political wilderness. This movement is rooted in a shift of the critical seniors’ cohort and a strengthening of their lead in Ontario. It may well be that Hurricane Hazel was a key force in both of these movements.
LIBERALS OPENING UP DAYLIGHT?
[Ottawa – October 18, 2015] With less than 24 hours to go until the polls open, it appears as though vote intentions are relatively fixed, although the Liberals may be opening up a bit of headroom. At 34.3 points, the Liberals hold a statistically insignificant lead over the Conservatives, who are at 32.6 per cent. The NDP is at 21 points and there are no signs of any last minute shifts.
Quebec has transitioned into an unclear four-way race. With just a seven-point spread separating the NDP, the Bloc, the Liberals, and… [More...]
EVIDENCE POINTS TO LONG MONDAY NIGHT NAIL-BITER
[Ottawa – October 17, 2015] We have upped our game in trying to discern the winner of what is shaping up to be a historically important federal election. We have run parallel HD-IVR and live interviewer surveys. We have significantly increased the sample size in the home stretch. We have double- and triple-checked the sample diagnostics. We have even done formal experiments with different ballot questions. Despite all of this, we still see the final outcome as very fuzzy.
Nothing is much different in this more richly resourced polling… [More...]
CONSERVATIVES HOLD SLIGHT ADVANTAGE AMONG EARLY VOTERS
[Ottawa – October 16, 2015] As we enter the final weekend before Election Day, vote intentions appear to be settling in. At 34 points, the Liberals hold a marginal lead over the Conservatives who are at 33 points. At 23 points, the NDP are well back in terms of popular support, but the rather efficient distribution of their support means they will likely still be looking at a fairly impressive seat count on Monday.
The Liberals continue to lead in the key battleground of Ontario, although there is some… [More...]
RACE NOT OVER
[Ottawa – October 15, 2015] As we sit less than four days out from Election Day, there is precious little to report. While we thought at the beginning of the week that the race would be clarified by now, it isn’t. The gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives has narrowed slightly and the Liberals’ advantage is no longer statistically significant. The NDP remains in third place, although they are still a major player in this election.
Regionally, Ontario continues to look very positive for the Liberals, while Quebec is looking very positive… [More...]
[Ottawa – October 15, 2015] Most citizens are deeply concerned about the current status and future prospects for Canada’s public health care system. There is a clear sense that the system has eroded badly under Stephen Harper’s watch and the public are emphatically offside with many of the core health policies of the Harper government. Even within Conservative supporters, there are large levels of anxiety and dissatisfaction. In the rest of the voting population, dissatisfaction is intense – even visceral.
The question arises as to why an issue of such potent significance to Canadians, at the… [More...]
[Ottawa – October 14, 2015] We’re less than five days away from Election Day and the Liberals are maintaining a small but stable four-point lead over the second-place Conservative Party. The NDP is in third place, but the party is up almost four points over yesterday and may be showing signs of resuscitation after its decline over the last month.
The NDP is doing significantly better in Quebec, where the bloom is off the rose for the Conservative Party, who at one point seemed to be gaining ground over cultural and values concerns. Ontario… [More...]
MIDWEEK POLLING SHOULD BE VERY TELLING
[Ottawa – October 13, 2015] As we enter the final week of the campaign, the Liberals now hold a significant lead. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have had a significant drop which, if confirmed tomorrow, could spell the end of their pursuit of a stable government. The NDP has stopped its bleeding and may be rebounding slightly and, although their standing on vote intention has been greatly diminished in recent weeks, the distribution of their support is fairly seat efficient.
The Liberal Party has made sizeable gains in both Ontario and Quebec… [More...]
SOME CONJECTURES ON WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A HISTORICAL ELECTION
Commentary by Frank Graves
[Ottawa – October 12, 2015] Not only is this one of the longest campaigns in Canadian political history, it may turn out to also be one of the most historically significant. Only two per cent of Canadians think this election is less important than previous elections; 75 per cent think it is more important. Voters tell us they are unusually emotionally engaged and that they see this election having huge stakes. The vast majority of Canadians think both the country and… [More...]
CHECK BACK NEXT WEEK TO SEE IF TURKEY DELIBERATIONS HAVE BROKEN STALEMATE
[Ottawa – October 11, 2015] The statistical logjam continues as we enter the final week of the election campaign. The Liberal and Conservative parties continue to see-saw back and forth for the lead. Indeed, the only clear movement over the last few days has been a decline in NDP support.
Contrary to other polls, we continue to see a three-way deadlock in Quebec. Ontario, meanwhile, is now a very unpredictable two-way contest with the NDP finding itself in an increasingly distant third-place. However… [More...]
[Ottawa – October 9, 2015] We have just ten days to go until Election Day and, while nothing is definitive, there are signs that voters’ intentions are beginning to lock in. After rising steadily for five consecutive days, Liberal support seems to have levelled out and the party remains locked in a tie with the Conservative Party. While ten days is nearly an eternity by election campaign standards, it does not appear that the NDP is still in the race.
The regional results are largely stable from yesterday. For those obsessing with the rank ordering of… [More...]
[Ottawa – October 8, 2015] The Liberals have been on a sustained rise for nearly a week and they now hold a statistically insignificant lead. At 34.1 points, the party is enjoying its highest support levels since February. The Conservatives are close behind at 32.5 points, while the NDP remains mired in the low 20s.
The most notable regional shifts are Ontario and Quebec. The Liberals have moved into a clear lead in Ontario where the NDP seem to be fading. In Quebec, the Liberals are clearly on the rise. The Conservatives continue to do well… [More...]
A TALE OF TWO PROVINCES?
[Ottawa – October 7, 2015] After holding a statistically significant lead for 20 consecutive days, the Conservative Party’s lead has shrunk to just under two points and the party is now statistically tied with the Liberal Party who, not even two months ago, were in danger of being squeezed out of what had looked like a Conservative-NDP race. The NDP, meanwhile, is not making up any ground and may in fact be falling back slightly in what is increasingly a two-way race.
There are two interesting regional developments. The first is… [More...]
[Ottawa – October 6, 2015] The Conservatives hold a stable but narrowing lead over the Liberal Party which has been moving up in the past week. The NDP, meanwhile, has declined and the party is plateaued right now.
There has been some confusion regarding the differing results being published by various pollsters in recent weeks. However, we have seen a clear and sustained Conservative lead and we are confident that this is not some statistical anomaly. We saw Conservative Party starting to rise on the 12th of September, moving into a clear lead on the 16th… [More...]
[Ottawa – October 2, 2015] With just 17 days until Election Day, the Conservative Party holds a clear (albeit somewhat narrowed) lead. Our poll of last week was controversial at the time as no one else was showing a clear Conservative lead. Our internal daily tracking (now being shared after the fact) shows that the Conservative Party has held the lead for 15 consecutive days and they now find themselves in roughly the same range as where they were at this stage of the 2011 election campaign.
IDEA OF COALITION GOVERNMENT REMAINS POPULAR EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE CONSERVATIVE BASE
This survey was sponsored by La Presse. The full article is available here.
[Ottawa – September 24, 2015] In the span of one week, what was a three-way race has become a Conservative lead with the Liberals and NDP trailing. Whether these movements are the result of the government’s handling of the Syrian refugee crisis, the announcement of a budget surplus, Harper’s debate performance, his challenging of the Niqab ruling, or something else is unclear, but the party is recovering the constituencies that were key to… [More...]