Barbara Hall's coronation looks less likely
ROYSON
JAMES
Toronto isn't about to hand the mayor's chair to
Barbara Hall. She'll have to earn it.
That's the clear conclusion to be drawn from today's Toronto
Star/EKOS poll, which shows Hall's support among committed voters
plummeting. David Miller and John Tory, once trailing far behind, are now
nipping at her heels in a three-way contest.
After cruising through 10 uninspiring months, looking to win by
default and failing to show a passion for the job, except to say she cares
deeply about the city, the fight for the mayor's office is coming to her.
The poll results, accurate to within 6.3 percentage points, 19
times out of 20, set up the delicious possibility of a thrilling finish to
a marathon race that started in January, with Hall way out in front on
name recognition.
She had been a one-term mayor of the former city of Toronto, prior
to amalgamation, and lost to Mel Lastman in 1997 as mayor of the new city.
Hall's opponents have been saying her support among Toronto voters
was a mile wide and an inch deep — meaning that too much of her support
was based on name recognition or some cursory knowledge of the candidate.
Apply a little heat, offer some substantive alternatives and bring
the intense scrutiny of the last weeks of a campaign and she would
collapse, they've maintained.
We're not there yet, but Hall's lead, once near 30 points, is now
down to 7 points over Miller and 13 points over Tory — not nearly as
insurmountable as first thought. At one time, she had more support than
all her main rivals combined. Now, she's in a tussle to stay on top.
"My sense of things is she's stumbling and her campaign is worried
about it," an ebullient Miller said yesterday, ending a productive week of
campaigning that peaked with the backing of media star Robert Kennedy Jr.,
of U.S. fame.
The poll results change the dynamics of the race and set up a
stirring month of campaigning as three substantial candidates with
considerable backing and money battle it out for the mayor's office.
Consider that nearly half of the voters have not made up their
minds with only a month to go. That cannot be good news for Hall. Voters
know what they are going to get with Hall and many are obviously looking
for something different.
The poll results reflect the general feeling that John Nunziata's
campaign has faltered badly and that Tom Jakobek is being all but ignored.
Can either Tory or Miller catch Hall, and which is better
positioned?
The irony is that the two challengers need each other.
Tory needs Miller to keep pulling the left-wing vote away from
Hall. As long as Miller has a chance at victory, the union vote, labour
vote, environmental vote, the anti-island airport vote will stay with the
city councillor and not leak away to Hall, a one-time NDPer who has
drifted toward the political centre.
The fewer left-wing votes Hall gets, the more difficult it will be
for her to run away from the pack. What Tory wants is a strong Miller
showing, while staying within striking distance so he can run up the
middle by election day.
For similar reasons, Miller needs Tory.
The right-wing and right-centre vote is unlikely to move all the
way from Tory to Miller, the NDPer. Rather, if Tory's campaign were to
collapse or lose steam, it is Hall who would benefit. Miller's best-case
scenario is a fragmented right-wing vote, even as the left-centre votes
coalesce around him.
Hall is precariously poised, looking over both shoulders. She's
always steeled herself for a final battle against Tory, while trying to
dismiss Miller as an irritant. Now, she's being outflanked on the left as
well as the right.
As one Miller backer said yesterday, "Any support Miller gets will
be from Barbara. And to some extent, Barbara will leak support to Tory as
well."
But Miller and Tory also face dangers.
As Miller becomes more of a viable, visible candidate, voters will
start to focus on his politics, his affinity and connection to unions. His
opposing stance on the island airport alone will not win the day. And his
positions on fiscal issues, the city's biggest problem, may not be
particularly attractive for moderate Toronto.
What Tory needs more than anything is the total collapse of support
for John Nunziata and Tom Jakobek. Jakobek (5 per cent) is co-operating
nicely; his support continues to fall with each new revelation at the
Toronto computer-leasing inquiry.
Nunziata has morphed into an Alliance party kind of guy, a position
that does not resonate with a large enough group of Torontonians to allow
him to win the race. Still, he currently has enough voter support (12 per
cent) to possibly spoil it for Tory, a kinder, gentler, more thoughtful
Nunziata.
What's gone wrong with the Hall campaign?
Well, like a basketball team with a 20-point lead in the middle of
the third quarter, she's lost her sharpness, her edge, her stride. Getting
it back, and quickly, is crucial so she can stop the bleeding.
While Miller was bringing in Robert Kennedy Jr., a move that
boosted his profile just as the Star poll was being conducted Wednesday
and Thursday, Hall was on the defensive, fending off strong Tory media
ads.
Hall's campaign team has oodles of money to purchase ads and
implement other campaign strategy. She's been watching others spend their
money, keeping her powder dry in case she needs to overwhelm them with a
late push.
That time might come sooner than later. Another poll confirming
today's result and the full-blown war will be on.
A media advertising battle is not Plan A for the Hall team.
Organizers were planning to open offices across the entire city, six in
all, to capture the suburban vote.
They would then concentrate on getting the vote out on election day
— always a key strategy to victory.
Hall has a highly organized team and may be best suited to deliver
on Nov. 10.
But if momentum brings a wave of support to Miller or Tory, she
might not be able to stem the tide.
Over the next two weeks, three televised debates will bring the
candidates into people's living rooms. Torontonians will see the
candidates for themselves, warts and all.
It promises to be fun. Finally.
Royson James usually appears Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
Email: [email protected].
Additional
articles by Royson James
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