LIBERALS GET SOME MOJO BACK; TORY MAJORITY SLIPPING AWAY
[OTTAWA – September 30, 2008] – After a difficult start on the campaign trail, in the media and in the polls, the Liberal brand has begun to re-assert itself in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. The race has tightened somewhat and the Conservatives have fallen back short of majority
For more analysis of the 2008 federal election, check out Frank Graves’ “Random Insights”. This site contains Frank’s recent and published commentary and will be updated regularly throughout the remainder of the campaign.
Just follow the link located on the left side of the ekoselection.com homepage or click here to go there immediately: Random Insights from Frank Graves
BY FRANK GRAVES
[OTTAWA – September 28, 2008] In chaos theory we see how very small initial events can produce huge changes to the dynamics of complex systems. While the mathematics for exploring butterfly effects in political systems is generations away we get the feeling that there might be much bigger things afoot than might be immediately apparent from a casual review of the first half
Stability in Federal Vote Intention
[OTTAWA – September 29, 2008] – Relatively little change in the national top line numbers today. We continue to see the Conservatives weaker in Quebec and the BQ stronger than at the beginning of the campaign.
Note that due to technical problems, we
BQ on Track to Big Quebec Win
[OTTAWA – September 26, 2008] – We offer this seat projection, based on our latest EKOS tracking poll, released earlier today. Most strikingly, the projection shows the Bloc Québécois resuming its dominance in Quebec. For the moment, the Tory prospects for a Quebec breakthrough do not seem as
Tories’ mid-week sag again; Libs make Ontario a contest
[OTTAWA – September 26, 2008] – The Conservative Party yet again seems plagued by the tendency for a “recoil” by some voters every time they creep up towards majority territory. This week, again, the party began on the cusp of a majority, but under a four-way assault by the opposition parties, slipped back as the week went
Bloc Powers to Big Lead in Quebec; Liberals Narrow Gap in Ontario
[OTTAWA – September 25, 2008] – It seems that rumours of the Bloc Québécois’ death are premature. Contrary to much of the speculation, the BQ’s strength in Quebec has been growing stealthily since the beginning of the election campaign, and the party now has a commanding lead in Quebec with 40% — double the
Conservatives Dominate English Canada; Dogfight in Quebec
[OTTAWA – September 24, 2008] – The Conservative Party now has a lead in every major region of the country except Quebec, where they are competitive outside Montreal. They have formidable strength in British Columbia, especially outside central Vancouver, and in the rest of the West. They lead in Ontario, by a wide margin outside of
Liberals/NDP remain in the hunt in big cities
[OTTAWA – September 23, 2008] – Despite the substantial, and increasingly solid, Conservative lead over the other parties nationally, it is a very different story when it comes to Canada’s biggest cities: Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. The Tories are not in the horserace in Montreal, lag badly in Toronto, and are in a dogfight with the NDP in Vancouver.
Tories are the party of men and the over-65s, but not bound by class
[OTTAWA – September 23, 2008] With all the parties once again today tracking steadily in their well-established “zones”, it’s a chance to look at where the front-running Conservatives are finding their support; and while the typical Tory voter has some of the characteristics you might
Tory lead is “gelling”… but plenty to play for among other parties
[OTTAWA – September 22, 2008] EKOS is releasing a huge weekend survey of more than 3000 Canadians that shows the parties clipping steadily ahead within the zones they established in the first couple of weeks of the campaign – the Tories in the mid- to high-thirties, the Liberals in the mid-twenties
[OTTAWA – September 19, 2008] A seat projection based on the EKOS rolling poll released today shows the Conservatives sliding back into minority territory, and the Liberals the sole beneficiaries of this decline. Having theoretically picked up 11 seats over the second week of the campaign, the LPC now has a more
[OTTAWA – September 19, 2008] In our latest EKOS tracking poll, the Green Party has achieved its highest level of support ever, at 13% — very close to triple the level of support it garnered in the last election.
Even more important to the Greens, it
HIGHLIGHTS
· The campaign is beginning to look “locked in”, with more than 7 in 10 voters saying they will not change their mind between
EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008
NATIONAL PARTIES HOLDING STEADY
[OTTAWA – September 18, 2008] The EKOS tracking poll shows the national parties holding steady for the moment, though daily shifts suggest there may be a softening of Conservative support and a perceptible growth for the Greens this week. There is an interesting story regarding voter’s level of commitment to their current choices and where they
LIBERALS SCATTERING TO THE WINDS
[September 17, 2008] The latest EKOS tracking poll shows very little movement from yesterday in the “topline” standings of the parties, which gives us an opportunity to direct attention to one of the underlying dynamics of the election campaign.
Structurally
EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008
[OTTAWA – September 16, 2008] A seat projection based on the latest EKOS rolling poll shows the Conservatives now clearly in majority territory. Although the 38% support that the Conservatives enjoy in the most recent EKOS poll is low by historical standards to produce a majority, in the current configuration of party support, with the opposition split four ways, the Tories benefit.
According to this projection, the New Democrats are near to pulling abreast with the Bloc Québécois as the third largest party in Parliament, and are also closing on
EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008
NEW DEMOCRATS CLOSING ON LIBERALS
[September 16, 2008] The latest rolling poll from EKOS Research Associates shows the New Democrats now within striking distance of overtaking the Liberal Party as the second week of campaigning is underway.
“This change has been taking place in small increments, day after day since the prospect of an election loomed at the end of August,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “The Liberals have gradually slipped from the high 20s into the low 20s. The New Democrats, meanwhile, have been
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EKOS Research Associates
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