EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008
Canadians in Holding Pattern
HIGHLIGHTS
National federal vote intention: CPC 37%, LPC 26%, NDP 19%, GP 10%, and BQ 8%
[OTTAWA – September 10, 2008] – The election campaign has yet to have an effect on Canadians’ voting plans. EKOS Research Associates polled more than 2000 Canadians Monday and Tuesday of this week, and found they have hardly budged from last week.
The Conservatives continue to knock on the door of a majority government with 37% support, followed by the Liberals at 26% and the NDP at 19%. The Green Party is also steady at 10%. The BQ has 8% nationally.
The poll suggests that it is still a close race between the Conservatives and BQ in Quebec, with the Liberals far behind. The Liberals are still struggling in their Ontario heartland, where they trail the Tories by six percentage points.
The poll shows that the Conservatives are running stronger among men than women, just as they traditionally have done. However, the Liberals no longer have their historical advantage among women. It is the NDP that shows the strongest skew towards support among women.
The poll includes separate samples from Monday and Tuesday, but registered very little change day-to-day. EKOS will continue taking daily samples each day this week, which will produce a robust national picture and also allow us to look in-depth at the battlegrounds in our largest cities later this week.
Methodology:
This poll was conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.
The field dates for this survey are September 8 and September 9, 2008. In total, a random sample of 2,330 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. A sample of this size provides a margin of error of +/- 2.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as regions).
All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Detailed Tables:
Federal Vote Intention By Region
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
BASE: Decided Voters (n=2051) |
Canada |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
Conservative |
37 |
34 |
63 |
46 |
39 |
25 |
31 |
Liberal |
26 |
21 |
14 |
16 |
33 |
22 |
33 |
NDP |
19 |
28 |
11 |
31 |
17 |
16 |
30 |
Green |
10 |
15 |
11 |
6 |
9 |
9 |
5 |
Bloc Québécois |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
27 |
0 |
Federal Vote Intention By Demographics
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
BASE: Decided Voters |
|
Gender |
Age |
Education |
||||||
(n=2051) |
CANADA |
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
<$40K |
$40-$60K |
>$80K |
Conservative |
37 |
39 |
36 |
22 |
35 |
41 |
44 |
33 |
41 |
38 |
Liberal |
26 |
27 |
24 |
22 |
23 |
28 |
28 |
24 |
25 |
29 |
NDP |
19 |
16 |
23 |
26 |
22 |
16 |
17 |
21 |
19 |
19 |
Green |
10 |
10 |
10 |
19 |
10 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
9 |
9 |
Bloc Québécois |
8 |
8 |
7 |
10 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
11 |
7 |
5 |
Click here to download pdf: Election ’08 – First Week Daily’s, Sept 10