Bloc Powers to Big Lead in Quebec; Liberals Narrow Gap in Ontario
[OTTAWA – September 25, 2008] – It seems that rumours of the Bloc Québécois’ death are premature. Contrary to much of the speculation, the BQ’s strength in Quebec has been growing stealthily since the beginning of the election campaign, and the party now has a commanding lead in Quebec with 40% — double the second place Conservatives.
The Conservatives now barely outrank the Liberals in the province, who are in turn chased closely by the NDP.
These numbers are based on a large sample size of more than 900 respondents in the province over the last three days – part of EKOS’s national daily tracking poll.
“The BQ’s overall strength in public opinion may overstate somewhat its ability to win seats, since the Bloc faces different opponents in different parts of the province,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “In Montreal, their opponent is mainly the Liberal Party, and to a degree, the NDP. In the rest of the province it is the Conservatives. Moreover, it is strongest among some of the demographic groups least likely to vote. Nonetheless, it is well within the BQ’s grasp to win the majority of the seats in the province once again.”
Meanwhile, in Ontario, the Liberals may have narrowed the gap; the three-day roll-up shows them to be within three percentage points of the Conservatives. However, there are different races going on within the province. The Liberals dominate Toronto, the Conservatives most of the rest of the province, but both parties are competitive in smaller urban centres and suburban communities. The NDP is also running well in its traditional strongholds.
“The battle for Ontario is not yet over,” said Graves, “even if a Conservative victory at the national level seems increasingly likely. The Liberals and NDP still have prospects in the province, and while it may not affect who becomes prime minister, it may have a lot to do with the future shape of the opposition, and the futures of the existing parties.”
Nationally, more and more Conservative supporters are saying that they are firm in their decision, and increasingly Liberal and BQ supporters are locking in too. There is still a great deal of uncertainty among Green supporters, many of whom are still considering their options, and this is also true, but to a lesser degree, of NDP supporters.
Detailed Tables:
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
n= |
3517 |
783 |
263 |
209 |
993 |
914 |
355 |
|
Margin of error (+/-)= |
1.6 |
3.5 |
6.0 |
6.8 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
5.2 |
|
Conservative |
36 |
40 |
56 |
46 |
36 |
20 |
40 |
|
Liberal |
25 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
33 |
18 |
27 |
|
NDP |
19 |
25 |
11 |
21 |
20 |
15 |
23 |
|
Green |
11 |
14 |
13 |
11 |
11 |
7 |
10 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
0 |
Daily Tracking of Federal Vote Intention
|
|
September |
|
||||||||||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
3 |
11 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
|
|
Conservative |
38 |
36 |
35 |
38 |
38 |
38 |
36 |
36 |
36 |
37 |
36 |
37 |
36 |
|
|
Liberal |
26 |
26 |
25 |
23 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
|
|
NDP |
15 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
|
|
Green |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
9 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Gender |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65 |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
$80K |
||
|
n= |
3517 |
1657 |
1860 |
271 |
1124 |
1437 |
685 |
1191 |
1258 |
1068 |
|
Margin of error (/-)= |
1.6 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
5.9 |
2.9 |
2.6 |
3.7 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
|
Conservative |
36 |
39 |
32 |
21 |
34 |
38 |
43 |
30 |
37 |
40 |
|
Liberal |
25 |
25 |
25 |
26 |
22 |
25 |
32 |
24 |
24 |
28 |
|
NDP |
19 |
16 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
18 |
15 |
23 |
17 |
16 |
|
Green |
11 |
11 |
10 |
20 |
12 |
9 |
6 |
12 |
10 |
10 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
9 |
11 |
13 |
12 |
9 |
4 |
11 |
11 |
7 |
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Not likely (1-3) |
75 |
86 |
78 |
75 |
68 |
78 |
41 |
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
8 |
5 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
8 |
13 |
|
Likely (5-7) |
16 |
9 |
13 |
15 |
21 |
15 |
45 |
Daily Tracking of Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
|
|
September |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters % “likely” by vote intention |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
15 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
15 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
22 |
21 |
19 |
17 |
18 |
23 |
25 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
18 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
51 |
48 |
43 |
45 |
49 |
47 |
49 |
45 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
Not likely (1-3) |
75 |
76 |
81 |
76 |
77 |
70 |
74 |
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
8 |
8 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
10 |
9 |
|
Likely (5-7) |
16 |
16 |
13 |
17 |
15 |
20 |
17 |
Second Choice
Q. Which Party would be your second choice?
|
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
|||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
NDP |
19 |
18 |
34 |
0 |
26 |
26 |
9 |
|
Liberal |
17 |
19 |
0 |
30 |
26 |
17 |
11 |
|
Green |
15 |
9 |
23 |
24 |
0 |
17 |
9 |
|
Conservative |
10 |
0 |
17 |
14 |
13 |
14 |
11 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
5 |
4 |
4 |
9 |
8 |
0 |
6 |
|
No second choice |
35 |
49 |
23 |
22 |
27 |
26 |
54 |
Daily Tracking of Second Choice
|
|
September |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
18 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
17 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
15 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
11 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
5 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No second choice |
35 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
34 |
34 |
35 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Second Choice
Q. Which Party would be your second choice?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
NDP |
19 |
17 |
17 |
21 |
19 |
19 |
22 |
|
Liberal |
17 |
20 |
11 |
12 |
17 |
16 |
19 |
|
Green |
15 |
16 |
13 |
16 |
17 |
12 |
12 |
|
Conservative |
10 |
10 |
11 |
8 |
8 |
11 |
14 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
5 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
15 |
2 |
|
No second choice |
35 |
35 |
44 |
38 |
36 |
27 |
31 |
Methodology:
EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of approximately 1,000 Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed.
The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a three-day rolling average of surveys collected September 22, 23, and 24. The margin of error associated with this three-day rolling sample of 3,517 decided voters (including leaning) is /-1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-sept25