About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

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For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

DAILY TRACKING – SEPTEMBER 26, 2008

Tories’ mid-week sag again; Libs make Ontario a contest

[OTTAWA – September 26, 2008] – The Conservative Party yet again seems plagued by the tendency for a “recoil” by some voters every time they creep up towards majority territory. This week, again, the party began on the cusp of a majority, but under a four-way assault by the opposition parties, slipped back as the week went on.

The EKOS tracking poll shows a blend of the previous three night’s samples. Aggregated they show a gentle softening in the Tories’ vote this week. However, nightly figures — based on sample sizes averaging of over a thousand respondents — show a more dramatic story. The Conservatives rose as high as 39% last Sunday, but have fallen to just 33% the last two days.

“We have to be careful about making too much of these trends,” said EKOS Research Associates President Frank Graves, “because the Tories have charted inside this same band between the mid- and high-30s for several years, now. But it must be frustrating for Tory strategists that every time a majority seems within grasp, it then slips away again.”

“The Tories still seem headed for victory,” he said, “but if the election had been this week, the question of a majority would have been answered differently by Canadians on different days. At the moment, certainly, when the Tories do slip, the votes they lose scatter among the other parties so that no one emerges as a credible alternative.”

There are two elements in the Tory sag this week. One is the now well-established resurgence of the Bloc Québécois in Quebec we reported on yesterday. Once again we see the BQ at the 40% mark – roughly twice the level of the second-place Conservative support in Quebec.

At the same time, the race in Ontario is tightening once again. As recently as last week, the Tories’ were knocking on the door of a double-digit lead in Ontario. Since then the gap has been closing, and just a single percentage point separates the two parties in our latest tracking poll.

“In Ontario, a lot hinges on where those extra Liberal votes are geographically,” said Graves, “and we will have deeper analysis on that soon. But the province of Ontario has come to the rescue of the Liberal Party before, and the party is showing some resilience there again despite a negative media consensus about Stéphane Dion’s campaign.”

At the same time, however, as the Liberal tick upwards in Ontario, the NDP is running strongly too – now cracking into 20% territory nationally, and of course much stronger in areas of traditional strength such as British Columbia, the prairies and part of Ontario.

Detailed Tables:

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

n=

3420

701

279

229

1004

916

291

Margin of error (+/-)=

1.7

3.7

5.9

6.5

3.1

3.2

5.7

Conservative

35

40

59

44

34

21

37

Liberal

25

20

19

20

33

17

28

NDP

20

25

12

24

21

15

26

Green

10

15

9

11

12

7

9

Bloc Québécois

10

0

0

0

0

40

0

Note – The data presented in this and our other tables on federal vote intention are based on decided voters only. Our three-day rolling average also finds that 8% of Canadians say they are undecided and 4% say they do not plan to vote in the October 14th election.

Daily Tracking of Federal Vote Intention

September

BASE: Decided Voters

3

11

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Conservative

38

36

35

38

38

38

36

36

36

37

36

37

36

35

Liberal

26

26

25

23

23

24

25

25

25

24

25

24

25

25

NDP

15

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

19

19

19

19

20

Green

11

11

11

11

11

12

13

13

12

12

12

11

11

10

Bloc Québécois

9

8

9

9

10

8

8

8

9

8

8

9

10

10

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

Gender

Age

Income

M

F

<25

25-44

45-64

65

<$40K

$40-80K

$80K

n=

3420

1572

1848

281

1110

1367

662

1172

1227

1021

Margin of error (/-)=

1.7

2.5

2.3

5.8

2.9

2.6

3.8

2.9

2.8

3.1

Conservative

35

38

32

21

33

38

44

30

37

39

Liberal

25

23

26

23

22

24

33

24

22

28

NDP

20

18

22

25

22

19

13

23

20

16

Green

10

11

10

16

12

10

6

11

10

11

Bloc Québécois

10

9

10

15

12

9

4

11

11

7

Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Canadians

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Not likely (1-3)

76

85

78

76

67

80

41

Somewhat likely (4)

9

5

10

10

13

7

13

Likely (5-7)

16

10

12

14

19

13

46

Daily Tracking of Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

September

BASE: Canadians

% “likely” by vote intention

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Conservative

11

11

11

11

11

10

10

9

10

Liberal

15

16

16

16

13

13

12

13

12

NDP

15

16

17

19

18

17

17

15

14

Green

22

21

19

17

18

23

25

21

19

Bloc Québécois

18

16

16

15

14

14

14

15

13

Undecided

51

48

43

45

49

47

49

45

46

Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Canadians

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

Not likely (1-3)

76

76

79

78

78

71

71

Somewhat likely (4)

9

9

7

9

8

10

9

Likely (5-7)

16

15

14

13

14

19

20

Second Choice

Q. Which Party would be your second choice?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Canadians

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

NDP

19

18

33

0

29

29

9

Liberal

16

19

0

31

22

16

10

Green

14

10

19

24

0

19

7

Conservative

10

0

17

13

14

13

12

Bloc Québécois

6

4

5

8

9

0

8

No second choice

35

50

26

24

26

23

55

Daily Tracking of Second Choice

September

BASE: Canadians

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

NDP

18

19

20

20

18

19

19

19

19

Liberal

17

17

16

17

17

17

17

17

16

Green

15

15

15

14

14

15

15

15

14

Conservative

11

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

Bloc Québécois

5

4

5

5

5

5

5

5

6

No second choice

35

34

35

35

35

34

34

35

35

Second Choice

Q. Which Party would be your second choice?

BASE: Canadians

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

NDP

19

18

16

21

19

20

20

Liberal

16

18

13

14

17

15

20

Green

14

15

14

10

16

13

11

Conservative

10

10

9

8

8

11

14

Bloc Québécois

6

2

3

5

2

15

3

No second choice

35

37

44

42

38

26

32

Methodology:

EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of approximately 1,000 Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a three-day rolling average of surveys collected September 23, 24 and 25.

In total, 3,974 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this three-day rolling sample is +/-1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-sept26

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