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DAILY TRACKING – SEPTEMBER 29, 2008

Stability in Federal Vote Intention

[OTTAWA – September 29, 2008] – Relatively little change in the national top line numbers today. We continue to see the Conservatives weaker in Quebec and the BQ stronger than at the beginning of the campaign.

Note that due to technical problems, we had fewer cases this weekend than we normally do. We have extended our reporting period to four days to ensure a sound sample.

Detailed Tables:

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

n=

1808

320

149

139

576

530

94

Margin of error (+/-)=

2.3

5.5

8.0

8.3

4.1

4.3

10.1

Conservative

34

41

61

41

33

22

29

Liberal

26

20

14

21

35

18

30

NDP

20

26

15

31

20

14

31

Green

10

13

10

6

11

8

10

Bloc Québécois

10

0

0

0

0

38

0

Note – The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our rolling average also finds that 7% of Canadians are undecided and 4% do not plan to vote in the October 14th election.

Daily Tracking of Federal Vote Intention

Election 2006

September

BASE:
Decided Voters

3

11

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

Conservative

36.3

38

36

35

38

38

38

36

36

36

37

36

37

36

35

34

35

34

Liberal

30.2

26

26

25

23

23

24

25

25

25

24

25

24

25

25

25

25

26

NDP

17.5

15

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

Green

4.5

11

11

11

11

11

12

13

13

12

12

12

11

11

10

11

10

10

Bloc Québécois

10.5

9

8

9

9

10

8

8

8

9

8

8

9

10

10

10

10

10

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

Gender

Age

Income

M

F

<25

25-44

45-64

65

<$40K

$40-80K

$80K

n=

1808

802

1006

166

585

678

379

625

641

501

Margin of error (/-)=

2.3

3.46

3.09

7.61

4.05

3.76

5.03

3.92

3.87

4.38

Conservative

34

38

31

20

32

35

46

32

36

35

Liberal

26

24

28

24

24

26

29

23

23

31

NDP

20

19

21

27

21

20

16

24

20

17

Green

10

10

10

14

12

10

6

10

9

11

Bloc Québécois

10

9

10

15

12

9

4

11

11

7

Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Canadians

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Not likely (1-3)

76

85

78

75

68

80

38

Somewhat likely (4)

8

4

9

9

13

5

15

Likely (5-7)

16

11

13

16

19

15

47

Daily Tracking of Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

September

BASE: Canadians

% “likely” by vote intention

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

Conservative

11

11

11

11

11

10

10

9

10

11

11

11

Liberal

15

16

16

16

13

13

12

13

12

12

12

13

NDP

15

16

17

19

18

17

17

15

14

14

16

16

Green

22

21

19

17

18

23

25

21

19

18

22

19

Bloc Québécois

18

16

16

15

14

14

14

15

13

14

13

15

Undecided

51

48

43

45

49

47

49

45

46

42

46

47

Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?

BASE: Canadians

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

Not likely (1-3)

76

75

77

77

80

74

62

Somewhat likely (4)

8

10

7

12

6

8

9

Likely (5-7)

16

16

16

11

14

17

29

Methodology:

EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of approximately 1,000 Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed.

Fewer cases were collected over the past weekend, due to technically difficulties. As such, the daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a four-day (rather than our usual three-day) rolling average of surveys collected September 25, 26, 27, and 28. In total, 2,083 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is +/-2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income).

All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-sept29

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