About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

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In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

DAILY TRACKING

EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008

NEW DEMOCRATS CLOSING ON LIBERALS

[September 16, 2008] The latest rolling poll from EKOS Research Associates shows the New Democrats now within striking distance of overtaking the Liberal Party as the second week of campaigning is underway.

“This change has been taking place in small increments, day after day since the prospect of an election loomed at the end of August,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “The Liberals have gradually slipped from the high 20s into the low 20s. The New Democrats, meanwhile, have been edging up.”

The gap between the Liberals and the New Democrats in this latest poll is just four percentage points. Although it is clear that the Liberals retain a small edge, on some days the difference is within the margin of error.

“The New Democrats’ hope that the contest in this election will ultimately be between them and the Conservatives is no longer an idle one,” said Graves. “It is within reach. In fact, these trends only need to continue another few days for the NDP to pass the Liberals.

“If the alarm bells are not ringing already at Liberal headquarters, they should now. Jack Layton is simply connecting better with voters than Stéphane Dion at this stage of the campaign.”

The Conservatives, meanwhile, have rebounded somewhat after their first-week slump. Their gap over the Liberals is now a yawning 15 percentage points.

Detailed Tables:

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

n=

2848

473

185

146

993

781

270

Margin of error (+/-)=

1.8

4.5

7.2

8.1

3.1

3.5

6.0

Conservative

38

40

62

52

37

25

33

Liberal

23

21

8

19

30

20

28

NDP

19

23

20

20

18

14

29

Green

11

14

9

6

14

8

8

Bloc Québécois

9

0

0

0

0

32

0

Tracking Federal Vote Intention

BASE: Decided Voters

Sep. 2-3

Sep. 8-11

Sep. 14

Sep. 15

Conservative

38

36

35

38

Liberal

26

26

25

23

NDP

15

19

19

19

Green

11

11

11

11

Bloc Québécois

10

8

9

9

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

Gender

Age

Income

M

F

<25

25-44

45-64

65+

<$40K

$40-80K

+$80K

n=

2848

1279

1569

175

896

1193

584

952

1076

820

Margin of error (+/-)=

1.8

2.7

2.5

7.4

3.3

2.8

4.1

3.2

3.0

3.4

Conservative

38

40

35

25

34

40

46

34

39

40

Liberal

23

23

24

19

20

26

27

22

22

26

NDP

19

17

20

22

23

17

15

20

20

16

Green

11

12

11

18

13

11

6

11

11

13

Bloc Québécois

9

8

10

17

10

7

6

12

8

6

Methodology:

EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of approximately 1,000 Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed.

The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a three-day rolling average of surveys collected September 13, 14, and 15. The margin of error associated with this three-day rolling sample of 2,848 decided voters (including leaning) is +/-1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here to download pdf: Election ’08 – Daily Tracking, Sept16

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