DAILY TRACKING
EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008
NEW DEMOCRATS CLOSING ON LIBERALS
[September 16, 2008] The latest rolling poll from EKOS Research Associates shows the New Democrats now within striking distance of overtaking the Liberal Party as the second week of campaigning is underway.
“This change has been taking place in small increments, day after day since the prospect of an election loomed at the end of August,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “The Liberals have gradually slipped from the high 20s into the low 20s. The New Democrats, meanwhile, have been edging up.”
The gap between the Liberals and the New Democrats in this latest poll is just four percentage points. Although it is clear that the Liberals retain a small edge, on some days the difference is within the margin of error.
“The New Democrats’ hope that the contest in this election will ultimately be between them and the Conservatives is no longer an idle one,” said Graves. “It is within reach. In fact, these trends only need to continue another few days for the NDP to pass the Liberals.
“If the alarm bells are not ringing already at Liberal headquarters, they should now. Jack Layton is simply connecting better with voters than Stéphane Dion at this stage of the campaign.”
The Conservatives, meanwhile, have rebounded somewhat after their first-week slump. Their gap over the Liberals is now a yawning 15 percentage points.
Detailed Tables:
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
n= |
2848 |
473 |
185 |
146 |
993 |
781 |
270 |
|
Margin of error (+/-)= |
1.8 |
4.5 |
7.2 |
8.1 |
3.1 |
3.5 |
6.0 |
|
Conservative |
38 |
40 |
62 |
52 |
37 |
25 |
33 |
|
Liberal |
23 |
21 |
8 |
19 |
30 |
20 |
28 |
|
NDP |
19 |
23 |
20 |
20 |
18 |
14 |
29 |
|
Green |
11 |
14 |
9 |
6 |
14 |
8 |
8 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
0 |
Tracking Federal Vote Intention
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
Sep. 2-3 |
Sep. 8-11 |
Sep. 14 |
Sep. 15 |
|
Conservative |
38 |
36 |
35 |
38 |
|
Liberal |
26 |
26 |
25 |
23 |
|
NDP |
15 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
|
Green |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Gender |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
+$80K |
||
|
n= |
2848 |
1279 |
1569 |
175 |
896 |
1193 |
584 |
952 |
1076 |
820 |
|
Margin of error (+/-)= |
1.8 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
7.4 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
4.1 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
3.4 |
|
Conservative |
38 |
40 |
35 |
25 |
34 |
40 |
46 |
34 |
39 |
40 |
|
Liberal |
23 |
23 |
24 |
19 |
20 |
26 |
27 |
22 |
22 |
26 |
|
NDP |
19 |
17 |
20 |
22 |
23 |
17 |
15 |
20 |
20 |
16 |
|
Green |
11 |
12 |
11 |
18 |
13 |
11 |
6 |
11 |
11 |
13 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
9 |
8 |
10 |
17 |
10 |
7 |
6 |
12 |
8 |
6 |
Methodology:
EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of approximately 1,000 Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed.
The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a three-day rolling average of surveys collected September 13, 14, and 15. The margin of error associated with this three-day rolling sample of 2,848 decided voters (including leaning) is +/-1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Click here to download pdf: Election ‘08 - Daily Tracking, Sept16
