EKOS’ SEAT PROJECTION - SEPTEMBER 16, 2008
EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008
[OTTAWA – September 16, 2008] A seat projection based on the latest EKOS rolling poll shows the Conservatives now clearly in majority territory. Although the 38% support that the Conservatives enjoy in the most recent EKOS poll is low by historical standards to produce a majority, in the current configuration of party support, with the opposition split four ways, the Tories benefit.
According to this projection, the New Democrats are near to pulling abreast with the Bloc Québécois as the third largest party in Parliament, and are also closing on the Liberals.
The projection is done using a model that takes into consideration both the mathematical impacts of regional splits in party support and historic patterns.
A seat projection of this kind is not a prediction of the election outcome, certainly not this early in the race. Moreover, the model suggests that the margin of victory in 62 seats – roughly 20% of the total – is currently less than five percentage points.
What this seat projection does do is serve as a guide to what Parliament might look like if the vote split this way on election day.
|
|
CPC |
Liberal |
NDP |
BQ |
Green |
TOTAL |
|
CANADA |
161 |
65 |
38 |
44 |
0 |
308 |
|
Atlantic |
16 |
10 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
|
Quebec |
13 |
17 |
1 |
44 |
0 |
75 |
|
Ontario |
58 |
31 |
17 |
0 |
0 |
106 |
|
Manitoba |
9 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
|
Saskatchewan |
12 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
|
Alberta |
27 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
28 |
|
British Columbia |
25 |
4 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
36 |
|
Yukon / Territories |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
A note on our methodology:
This seat projection is based on the results of a recent poll conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.
Taking our three-day rolling sample (September 13-15) of 2,848 decided voters (including leaning) from across Canada, we have run them through a model that takes into account both the special arithmetic of our first-past-the-post system, and the parties’ historical patterns of support.
Click to download pdf: Election ‘08 - Seat Projection, Sept16
