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EKOS’ FIRST SEAT PROJECTION

EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008

TORIES ON THE BRINK OF MAJORITY…REALLY ON THE BRINK

[OTTAWA – September 10, 2008] – Doing seat projections from polling data is a risky business. Polls are estimates of public opinion, even if quite accurate ones. Figuring out how these figures will translate into the distribution of seats in our first-past-the-post system is a tricky and imprecise business.

However, pollsters and journalists have spent the last two weeks implicitly making seat projections every time they have spoken of the Conservatives “being in majority territory” or “on the brink of a majority”. They just never show their work.

So we have decided to show ours. Taking our national sample of over 2000 Canadians from Monday and Tuesday, we have run them through a model that takes into account both the special arithmetic of our first-past-the-post system, and the parties’ historical patterns of support.

When we say the Tories are “on the brink” we really mean it. A majority is 155 seats. Our model, based on our polling, for what it is worth, gives them 156.

EKOS’ Seat Projection

CPC

Liberal

NDP

BQ

Green

TOTAL

CANADA

156

82

37

33

0

308

Atlantic

9

17

6

0

0

32

Quebec

20

21

1

33

0

75

Ontario

58

36

12

0

0

106

Manitoba

9

1

4

0

0

14

Saskatchewan

12

1

1

0

0

14

Alberta

28

0

0

0

0

28

British Columbia

20

4

12

0

0

36

Yukon / Territories

0

2

1

0

0

3

Click here to download pdf: Election ’08 – EKOS’ First Seat Projection, Sept10

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