About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

EKOS’ SEAT PROJECTION – SEPTEMBER 19, 2008

Tories Back in Minority Territory

[OTTAWA – September 19, 2008] A seat projection based on the EKOS rolling poll released today shows the Conservatives sliding back into minority territory, and the Liberals the sole beneficiaries of this decline. Having theoretically picked up 11 seats over the second week of the campaign, the LPC now has a more decisive lead on the NDP and the Bloc (whose fortunes remain relatively unchanged from earlier this week). It also suggests that, if the election was held today, the Green Party would not have a seat – although they are close in two B.C. ridings (less than 5% behind the projected winner).

While the election is still too early to call, this seat projection does provide a glimpse into what Parliament might look like if the vote split this way on election day.

CPC

Liberal

NDP

BQ

Green

TOTAL

CANADA

151

76

36

45

0

308

Atlantic

13

16

3

0

0

32

Quebec

12

17

1

45

0

75

Ontario

51

37

18

0

0

106

Manitoba

10

0

4

0

0

14

Saskatchewan

12

1

1

0

0

14

Alberta

28

0

0

0

0

28

British Columbia

24

4

8

0

0

36

Yukon / Territories

1

1

1

0

0

3

A note on our methodology:

This seat projection is based on the results of a recent poll conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

Taking our three-day rolling sample (September 16-18) of 3,992 decided voters (including leaning) from across Canada, we have run them through a model that takes into account both the special arithmetic of our first-past-the-post system, and the parties’ historical patterns of support.

Click to download PDF: election-08-seat-projection-4-_sep-19_1

Comments are closed.