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EKOS’ SEAT PROJECTION – SEPTEMBER 26, 2008

BQ on Track to Big Quebec Win

[OTTAWA – September 26, 2008] – We offer this seat projection, based on our latest EKOS tracking poll, released earlier today. Most strikingly, the projection shows the Bloc Québécois resuming its dominance in Quebec. For the moment, the Tory prospects for a Quebec breakthrough do not seem as ripe as they were when the campaign began.

Also notable is the apparent Liberal improvement in Ontario, where they have closed the gap with the Conservatives somewhat since our last projection a week ago.

The NDP also has very strong prospects for improving their standing in Ontario, based on this projection.

Meanwhile, the Tories do not quite have the majority they seek, but are achingly close.

Although the ranking of the parties in terms of seats remains the same as it did in the outgoing parliament, there is much less spread between them than there was previously.

Gilles Duceppe and Jack Layton could both construct plausible scenarios in which they might emerge as Leader of the Opposition after this election, based on relatively modest shifts in public support in the remaining weeks of the campaign, and depending, of course, on splits in individual ridings.

As always, we caution that seat projections have inherent limitations. However, this projection offers a plausible scenario of what might happen if Canadians voted as they told us they intend to do over the last few days.

Today’s Seat Projection

CPC

Liberal

NDP

BQ

Green

Other

TOTAL

CANADA

148

66

38

55

0

1

308

Atlantic

21

7

4

0

0

0

32

Quebec

7

10

2

55

0

1

75

Ontario

46

40

20

0

0

0

106

Manitoba

9

2

3

0

0

0

14

Saskatchewan

13

1

0

0

0

0

14

Alberta

27

1

0

0

0

0

28

British Columbia

24

4

8

0

0

0

36

Yukon / Territories

1

1

1

0

0

0

3

A note on our methodology:

This seat projection is based on the results of a recent poll conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

Taking our three-day rolling sample (September 23-25) of 3,420 decided voters (including leaning) from across Canada, we have run them through a model that takes into account both the special arithmetic of our first-past-the-post system, and the parties’ historical patterns of support.

Click here to download PDF: election-08-seat-projection-5-_sep-26_

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