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EVEN TORIES LOVE OBAMA

EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008

Canadians have made up their minds on the American election

HIGHLIGHTS

Canadians would like Barack Obama to win the American presidential election by a large margin over his rival, John McCain. It isn’t even close: 64% for Obama; 17% for McCain.

Most Canadians say that their vote here in Canada will not be affected by who they think will win in the United States.

Available Liberal vote would have been slightly bolstered by and Obama victory.

U.S. relations not high on the agenda of Canadian voters.

Please note that the methodology and detailed tables of these and other results discussed in this release are provided at the end of this document.

[OTTAWA – September 8, 2008] – Canadians may be scratching their heads about how they should vote in October, and Barack Obama and John McCain may be running neck and neck for November’s presidential elections south of the border. But if Canadians were choosing the next president, the election down south would be all but over: and it would be Obama in a landslide.

Sixty-four per cent of Canadians say they would like to see Obama win the U.S. election; only 17% opt for McCain. Obama may have been denounced as an extreme liberal at last week’s Republican convention, but even that hasn’t deterred many Canadian Conservatives. Conservative supporters prefer Obama by a margin of 48% to 33%. Among Liberal and NDP voters, he tops 80%.

While Canadians understand the importance of good Canada-U.S. relations, it is far from being a leading issue in this campaign, the way it was at the time of the Free Trade Agreement and NAFTA debates. Just 43% say it should be a “high priority” in this election. Other EKOS polling shows that 85% thinks it “important” to strengthen relations and Harper has an advantage here.

Meanwhile, John McCain made a campaign-style stop in Ottawa in the spring, and has been an advocate of international trade.

None of that seems to have affected the Canadian swoon for Obama.

Nor do Canadians think that their vote here will be affected by whom they expect to win down south. Overall, Canadians say they would be no more likely to vote Liberal in our elections if they knew Obama was going to be the winner. However, if we look only at Liberal, NDP, Green, and undecided voters, we see a small net advantage to the LPC from an Obama victory. The same cannot be said for the CPC a McCain win (i.e., there is no net advantage to the Conservatives).

Methodology:

Today’s poll was conducted using EKOS’ unique hybrid internet-telephone research panel, PROBIT©. This panel is randomly recruited from the general population, meaning that, the only way to be included in PROBIT© is through random selection. Unlike opt-in internet-only research panels, PROBIT© supports confidence intervals and error testing.

The field dates for this survey are September 2 to September 4, 2008. In total, a random sample of 2000 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. A sample of this size provides a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as regions).

All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Detailed Tables:

Preferred Winner in the U.S. Presidential Election

Q. Who would you LIKE to see win the U.S. election?

Federal Vote Intention

BASE: All Canadians

CANADA

CPC

Liberal

NDP

Green

BQ

n=

2000

693

497

328

177

128

Democratic candidate Barack Obama

64

48

82

80

67

69

Republican candidate John McCain

17

33

8

7

12

14

Don’t know/No response

19

19

10

14

21

17

Impact of an Obama-Win on Vote Intention in Canada

Q. If you knew that democratic candidate Barack Obama would win the U.S. election and become President, would this make you more likely to vote Liberal in next federal election, less likely, or have no effect on your vote intention?

Current Federal Vote Intention

BASE: All Canadians

CANADA

CPC

Liberal

NDP

Green

BQ

n=

2000

693

497

328

177

128

Less likely to vote Liberal

8

14

1

8

3

4

No effect

76

81

77

81

79

86

More likely to vote Liberal

8

2

17

9

7

6

Don’t know/No response

8

3

5

3

10

4

Impact of a McCain-Win on Vote Intention in Canada

Q. If you knew that republican candidate John McCain would win the US election and become President, would this make you more likely to vote Conservative in next federal election, less likely, or have no effect on your vote intention?

Current Federal Vote Intention

BASE: All Canadians

CANADA

CPC

Liberal

NDP

Green

BQ

n=

2000

693

497

328

177

128

Less likely to vote Conservative

13

2

23

20

14

9

No effect

75

86

70

75

77

79

More likely to vote Conservative

5

8

1

3

1

9

Don’t know/No response

8

4

6

3

8

4

Canada-U.S. Relations: An Election Priority?

Q. Thinking about the possibility of a federal election being held soon, what priority should be placed on Canada-U.S. relations?

Current Federal Vote Intention

BASE: All Canadians

CANADA

CPC

Liberal

NDP

Green

BQ

n=

2000

693

497

328

177

128

Low (1-3)

25

17

28

35

34

27

Middle (4)

31

31

28

31

29

35

High (5-7)

43

52

44

34

33

36

Don’t know/No response

1

1

0

0

4

2

Click here to down load pdf: Election ’08 – US Election, Sept 8

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