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LIBERALS FAILING TO CLOSE THE GAP, BUT TORY MAJORITY SLIPPING AWAY

EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008

Federal Voting Intentions – Weekend Roll-Up

HIGHLIGHTS

National federal vote intention: CPC 35%, Liberal 25%, NDP 19%, Green Party 11%, and the BQ 9%.

Please note that the methodology and detailed tables of these and other results discussed in this release are provided at the end of this document.

[OTTAWA – September 14, 2008] – Stephen Harper’s Conservatives continue to enjoy a yawning gap in popular support over Stéphane Dion’s Liberals in EKOS’ roll-up of interviews collected Friday, Saturday and Sunday – the first full weekend of campaign 2008.

The Conservatives have a ten percentage point lead over the Liberals nationally. They lead all other parties in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba-Saskatchewan, and the Atlantic provinces over the weekend. In Quebec, the Conservatives now trail the Bloc Québécois, however.

In Ontario, the Liberals have pulled into a virtual tie with the Conservatives in what has traditionally been their fortress, but which had been crumbling to the Tories in recent weeks.

“The Conservatives continue to dominate this election,” said EKOS President Frank Graves, “but this is as much a tribute to the Liberals’ weakness as it is to Conservative strength. The Tories have lost the powerful momentum they had in the period right before the writ was dropped, and they are now below what they would probably need to win a majority government.”

The Liberals are running a poor third in British Columbia behind the Tories and the NDP. The NDP continue to show substantial strength nationally, but have not yet achieved anything like the breakthrough they would need to displace the Liberals as the official opposition.

The Green Party continues to run surprisingly well, perhaps on the wings of the debate-over-the-debate, and the publicity it has won for the Greens’ leader, Elizabeth May.

“The best thing that can be said for the Liberals is that they have had a small bounce-back in Ontario and that they have not dropped through the floor nationally in the first week of the campaign,” said Graves. “That may count as an accomplishment considering the low expectations going in. But there is no sign they have any momentum on their side.”

“However, there has been a history in this country of government parties having trouble sustaining their pre-election strength through the campaign,” said Graves. “In 2006, remember, Paul Martin’s Liberals seemed to have a comfortable lead over the Conservatives early in the campaign. The truth is that it is difficult to sustain an attack from three or four opposition parties without suffering any damage.”

Detailed Tables:

National Federal Vote Intention (by region)

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

n=

2264

377

163

133

743

593

255

Conservative

35

38

55

49

34

25

33

Liberal

25

20

10

19

33

21

29

NDP

19

27

22

21

17

13

30

Green

11

14

12

10

14

8

7

Bloc Québécois

9

0

0

0

0

33

0

Tracking Roll-up

BASE: Decided Voters

Sep. 2-3

Sep. 8-11

Sep. 12-14

Conservative

38

36

35

Liberal

26

26

25

NDP

15

19

19

Green

11

11

11

Bloc Québécois

10

8

9

National Federal Vote Intention (by demographics)

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

Gender

Age

Income

M

F

<25

25-44

45-64

65+

<$40K

$40-80K

+$80K

n=

2264

1026

1238

142

733

939

450

733

841

690

Conservative

35

38

33

26

32

36

46

33

36

37

Liberal

25

25

25

19

22

28

27

22

24

28

NDP

19

18

21

25

23

17

15

22

20

16

Green

11

11

12

18

12

11

6

11

11

12

Bloc Québécois

9

9

10

11

11

8

7

12

9

7

Methodology:

This poll was conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

The field dates for this survey are September 12 to September 14, 2008. In total, a random sample of 2,569 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The sub-sample of decided voters (including leaning) that responded to this survey is 2,264. The margin of error associated with the sample of decided voters is +/-2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided further (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here to download pdf: Election ’08 – First Weekend Roll-Up

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