EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008

Greens Hitting It Big with Gen-X and Gen-Y

HIGHLIGHTS

The Conservatives still have a large lead over the Liberals nationally, but there is a different story emerging in Canada’s largest centres.

The Conservatives still lead in the B.C. lower mainland, but the Liberals remain strong in Toronto and Montreal – their traditional bedrock.

The generational story is even more interesting, with Greens leading among Gen Y in Toronto and Vancouver and with Gen X in Montreal.

[OTTAWA – September 13, 2008] – The Liberals are bouncing back in Canada’s big cities. At the same time the Green Party is making remarkable inroads with post-baby-boomers.

As part of its large national poll of nearly 5000 Canadians this week, EKOS took major samplings of opinion in Canada’s three largest metropolitan areas, metropolitan Toronto and Montreal and the lower mainland of British Columbia.

In the Toronto area, the Liberals retain their historic lead over the Conservatives and the NDP, and their fortress there seems secure for the moment, however wobbly it may have looked a week ago. The Greens seem slightly stronger in Metro Toronto than outside, and the Conservatives appear to be slightly stronger outside Metro Toronto, as has been the case historically.

In Montreal, the Liberals are running ahead of the other parties, with a five percentage point lead over the second-place Bloc Québécois. The Conservatives are running well behind, as are the NDP. The Conservatives are much stronger among men than women, while the BQ have the opposite pattern.

In the lower mainland of British Columbia, however, the Liberals continue to struggle, trailing the NDP as well as the Conservatives who are in a comfortable lead.

“The race is back on!” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “The week before the election was called the headlines were saying the Tories could form a majority because that’s what the polls were indicating. What we have seen in Canada’s largest cities is a repetition of a historical pattern with the Harper Conservatives. When people think the party may be about to form a majority, they pull back and return to the Liberal fold.”

“It is striking that while the Liberals are struggling in Quebec as a whole, their brand remains quite strong in the Montreal area. It is also remarkable that even as the Liberals continue to be eclipsed by the Conservatives in the province of Ontario as a whole, in Toronto they retain the clear lead they have enjoyed for years.”

“In Vancouver, however, the Liberals are struggling, and this may reflect a concern that the Liberals’ Green Shift plan will add a federal carbon tax on top of the existing provincial one.”

There is also a very interesting story unfolding in the major cities with the Green Party. In Toronto and Vancouver, the Green Party is in first place among “Generation Y” – voters under the age of 25. In Montreal, the Green Party is in first place among “Generation X” – voters between the ages of 25 and 44. In past elections, support for the Green Party during the campaign has not typically translated into votes for the party come election day. It will be important to see if this is a trend that turns around now that Green Party leader, Elizabeth May, has secured a spot in the debates.

“There is a profound gap between the way baby-boomers see this election, largely in traditional terms, and the attitudes of the generations behind them,” said Graves. “Historically the post-boomer cohorts have not been a major factor in Canadian elections. This time, however, our research suggests growing frustration with boomer hegemony of the political agenda, particularly among Gen X. Of course you can’t win many seats even with the most solid support of the youngest generations, if you don’t bring along a lot of baby-boomers too. But they are beginning to assert themselves and wrestle under the grip of the large generation that precedes them. This will be an interesting story to follow not only this year but in elections to come.”

Detailed Tables:

Federal Vote Intention in Metropolitan Canada

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Federal Vote Intention – B.C. Lower Mainland

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Federal Vote Intention – Toronto

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Federal Vote Intention – Montreal

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Methodology:

This poll was conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

The field dates for this survey are September 8 to September 11, 2008. In total, a random sample of 4,975 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey, which includes a sub-sample of 4,367 decided voters (includes leaning). The margin of error associated with each of the sub-groups discussed in this released is provided in the following table. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided further (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as sex, age, income).

All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here to download pdf: Election ‘08 - Big Cities, Sept13

Posted on September 13th, 2008 under Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver - Lower Mainland • RSS 2.0 feed