EKOS ELECTION.COM – September 2008
TORY LEAD OVER LIBERALS DROPS 8 POINTS IN FIRST WEEK OF CAMPAIGN
HIGHLIGHTS
National federal vote intention: CPC 36%, Liberal 26%, NDP 19%, Green Party 11%, and the BQ 8%.
CPC vote has been declining steadily over the past week:
– Monday – 39%
– Tuesday – 37%
– Wednesday – 35%
– Thursday – 34%
Please note that the methodology and detailed tables of these and other results discussed in this release are provided at the end of this document.
[OTTAWA – September 12, 2008] – The Conservatives have been slipping back from majority government territory, according to new daily tracking numbers from EKOS Research, with much larger sample sizes than other polls.
Using an average sample of over 1,000 Canadians each day this week (including last night) for an overall roll-up of roughly 5,000 cases, the EKOS poll shows the Tories in gentle decline from majority back into minority territory. Equally important, the initially formidable advantage over the second place Liberals has been cut in half in the first week of the campaign (from a 15-point lead on Monday to a 7-point lead as of Thursday).
In the same time period, the Liberals have shown modest strengthening, as have the Bloc Québécois and the Greens. NDP support, on the other hand, has remained flat.
“We have seen this pattern before,” said Frank Graves, President of EKOS Research Associates. Whenever the Conservatives start to edge into majority territory, it seems some voters pullback and re-consider their intentions.”
“The remarkable story of this election so far is that the Conservatives surged in the week before the election – the kind of movement you usually see only after the campaign has officially begun,” he said. “What’s happening now is that they are slipping back to something closer to the norm over the last couple of years.”
Detailed Tables:
National Federal Vote Intention (by region)
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
n= |
4367 |
1152 |
323 |
239 |
1407 |
933 |
313 |
Conservative |
36 |
35 |
60 |
43 |
36 |
25 |
32 |
Liberal |
26 |
19 |
17 |
16 |
33 |
22 |
36 |
NDP |
19 |
28 |
10 |
31 |
19 |
14 |
24 |
Green |
11 |
16 |
12 |
8 |
11 |
9 |
7 |
Bloc Québécois |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
29 |
0 |
Daily Tracking
BASE: Decided Voters |
Sep. 8 |
Sep. 9 |
Sep. 10 |
Sep. 11 |
Sep. 8/11 Roll-up |
Conservative |
39 |
37 |
35 |
34 |
36 |
Liberal |
24 |
27 |
25 |
27 |
26 |
NDP |
22 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
Green |
10 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
11 |
Bloc Québécois |
6 |
7 |
11 |
8 |
8 |
National Federal Vote Intention (by demographics)
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Gender |
Age |
Income |
||||||
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
+$80K |
||
n= |
4367 |
2030 |
2337 |
295 |
1350 |
1814 |
908 |
1515 |
1555 |
1297 |
Conservative |
36 |
37 |
35 |
29 |
32 |
38 |
43 |
32 |
38 |
38 |
Liberal |
26 |
27 |
25 |
19 |
23 |
28 |
29 |
24 |
25 |
29 |
NDP |
19 |
18 |
21 |
22 |
21 |
18 |
17 |
21 |
19 |
18 |
Green |
11 |
11 |
10 |
18 |
13 |
9 |
6 |
12 |
10 |
10 |
Bloc Québécois |
8 |
8 |
9 |
12 |
11 |
7 |
5 |
11 |
9 |
5 |
Methodology:
This poll was conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.
The field dates for this survey are September 8 to September 11, 2008. In total, a random sample of 4975 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey, of which is a sub-sample of 4367 decided voters (includes leaning). The margin of error associated with the sample of decided voters is +/-1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided further (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Click here to download pdf: Election ’08 – First Week Roll-up