About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

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In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

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For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

DAILY TRACKING – FINAL NUMBERS

Canada’s Largest-Ever Political Survey

[OTTAWA – October 13, 2008] – EKOS is proud to present the final tracking poll of the 2008 federal election campaign. With our new IVR methodology, which allows us to gather much larger samples than traditional surveys, we have heard from an unprecedented 41,000 Canadians. In addition, using our unique hybrid online/telephone panel, Probit, we connected with thousands more.

In sum, we conducted what we believe to be the largest political survey project in Canadian history. We want to thank those many Canadians who contributed in this way to helping their fellow citizens understand the dynamics of this election campaign.

This final tracking poll does not show any dramatic change over the Thanksgiving weekend. However there have been some shifts that may prove significant:

In the see-saw battle for Ontario, the Conservatives have regained the slight lead that they had ceded to the Liberals in recent nights;

In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois retain a very large lead over the Liberals and Conservatives who are virtually tied;

Liberal and Conservative voters are now about equally committed nationally;

However, New Democrat and Green Party supporters are not as firmly committed as the two front-running parties, and may be subject to further erosion before all the votes are counted.

If there is a wild card it may be Quebec, where more than a fifth of respondents still say they may change their mind before going to vote. There is also considerable softness in the Green Party support, and to a lesser extent the NDP support, which may mean that some of these voters either change their preference or don’t show up to vote at all tomorrow.

However, there are relatively few “undecideds” left and most of those probably will not vote. They do not constitute a cavalry that any party can depend on to save them.

“There have been interesting rhythms to this campaign, and some dramatic events,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “A back-and-forth battle for Ontario, a setback for the Conservatives in Quebec, the emergence of Elizabeth May as a national figure to be reckoned with, and of course the unanticipated international financial crisis. But there have not been the dramatic changes in course that we have seen in some other election campaigns. The parties are still in the same order as they were at the start, and the same is likely to be true of the new Parliament.

In the weeks to come, EKOS will be using the data base we assembled during the election campaign, as well as both the Probit and IVR methodologies to continue our research into the implications of the 2008 election.

Detailed Tables:

Certainty of Voting in Tuesday’s Election By Vote Intention

Q. How certain are you to vote in the federal election this coming Tuesday, October 14th?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Canadians

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Absolutely certain

87.5

91.8

91.1

82.3

80.6

87.5

71.7

Quite certain

6.5

4.3

6.3

9.3

10.5

6.5

4.8

Not sure

6.1

3.9

2.5

8.4

8.9

6.1

23.5

National Federal Vote Intention (A)

Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

n=

2358

390

229

208

523

571

437

Margin of error (+/-)=

2.0

5.0

6.5

6.8

4.3

4.1

4.7

Conservative

34.8

36.4

56.1

47.4

36.8

21.3

24.7

Liberal

26.4

24.9

16.0

16.7

33.4

20.7

33.4

NDP

19.4

24.7

17.1

28.8

19.2

12.0

31.1

Green

9.6

14.0

10.9

7.2

10.6

5.2

10.8

Bloc Québécois

9.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

40.7

0.0

Note – The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 6.2% of Canadians say they are undecided.

National Federal Vote Intention (B)

Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

Gender

Age

Income

M

F

<25

25-44

45-64

65

<$40K

$40-80K

$80K

n=

2358

1090

1268

183

754

985

436

709

887

762

Margin of error (/-)=

2.0

3.0

2.8

7.2

3.6

3.1

4.7

3.7

3.3

3.5

Conservative

34.8

40.5

29.4

21.8

31.9

37.4

44.2

28.5

38.1

37.0

Liberal

26.4

24.3

28.4

18.7

24.7

29.8

28.1

23.9

25.1

30.3

NDP

19.4

18.6

20.2

25.6

21.5

16.8

16.4

22.2

20.7

15.3

Green

9.6

6.8

12.2

16.2

9.9

8.2

7.2

10.6

7.9

10.5

Bloc Québécois

9.8

9.8

9.8

17.7

12.0

7.8

4.1

14.8

8.3

6.8

Tracking Federal Vote Intention

2006 Vote

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 5

Oct.

13

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

Wk 4

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Conservative

36.3

38

36

36

34

36

33

34

35

36

34

34

34

34.8

Liberal

30.2

26

26

25

25

25

26

25

24

24

26

27

26

26.4

NDP

17.5

15

19

18

20

19

19

20

20

19

19

18

18

19.4

Green

4.5

11

11

13

11

10

12

11

11

11

11

10

11

9.6

Bloc Québécois

10.5

9

8

8

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

11

10

9.8

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this
release (link located at the bottom of page)

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 5

Oct. 13

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

Wk 4

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Conservative

35

35

39

44

35

38

42

42

40

36

39

39

36.4

Liberal

21

19

20

19

21

20

20

19

19

24

24

24

24.9

NDP

27

28

23

24

31

26

25

26

25

23

22

22

24.7

Green

14

16

18

13

13

16

13

13

16

17

15

15

14.0

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Alberta

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 5

Oct. 13

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

Wk 4

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Conservative

60

60

57

57

62

59

63

66

62

60

60

56

56.1

Liberal

17

17

18

17

19

14

12

10

12

14

15

16

16.0

NDP

10

10

13

14

11

15

13

13

13

16

16

16

17.1

Green

12

12

13

12

9

11

11

11

12

10

9

12

10.9

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Saskatchewan & Manitoba

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 5

Oct. 13

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

Wk 4

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Conservative

43

43

48

41

49

47

40

44

46

45

42

43

47.4

Liberal

21

16

18

23

18

20

23

21

18

17

20

18

16.7

NDP

30

31

25

25

23

24

29

25

30

31

31

31

28.8

Green

6

8

9

10

10

10

9

9

6

7

7

7

7.2

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 5

Oct. 13

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

Wk 4

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Conservative

42

36

36

32

39

33

35

36

37

35

35

34

36.8

Liberal

31

33

31

34

31

33

31

32

31

35

36

36

33.4

NDP

12

19

18

21

19

20

20

19

19

17

16

17

19.2

Green

13

11

15

13

12

15

14

13

13

13

13

13

10.6


Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 5

Oct. 13

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

Wk 4

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Conservative

27

25

24

21

20

17

17

17

18

20

20

24

21.3

Liberal

21

22

21

18

20

21

21

21

20

19

19

17

20.7

NDP

9

14

13

14

13

15

15

15

14

14

13

12

12.0

Green

7

9

8

7

6

5

7

6

8

6

6

5

5.2

Bloc Québécois

35

29

34

40

40

42

40

41

41

40

43

41

40.7

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Atlantic Canada

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 5

Oct. 13

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

Wk 4

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Conservative

33

32

32

37

33

31

30

31

32

30

25

23

24.7

Liberal

37

36

33

24

32

37

32

30

29

32

32

34

33.4

NDP

15

24

22

27

23

22

29

30

30

29

33

32

31.1

Green

13

7

13

11

12

10

9

9

9

9

10

10

10.8

Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Those planning to vote

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Not likely (1-3)

80.3

86.9

88.3

79.5

70.8

83.2

26.5

Somewhat likely (4)

5.8

4.3

4.6

7.3

7.6

2.4

16.4

Likely (5-7)

13.9

8.8

7.1

13.2

21.6

14.4

57.1


Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

End of Week

Week 5

Oct. 13

BASE: Those
planning to vote

Wk 2

Wk 3

Wk 4

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Conservative

11

11

9

8

8

8

9

8

8

7

8.8

Liberal

16

12

12

12

11

10

11

9

10

8

7.1

NDP

17

14

12

14

14

12

11

14

16

16

13.2

Green

19

18

24

17

17

17

14

11

12

20

21.6

Bloc Québécois

16

14

11

13

13

12

12

12

15

16

14.4

Undecided

43

42

50

47

43

41

42

51

60

59

57.1

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download
PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Second Choice

Q. Which Party would be your second choice?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Those planning to vote

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Conservative

8.3

0.0

12.6

13.8

16.9

8.4

5.6

Liberal

17.0

18.8

0.0

33.9

27.9

17.0

9.3

NDP

19.5

15.2

35.8

0.0

27.6

25.4

15.2

Green

17.6

14.1

23.7

25.1

0.0

20.8

10.2

Bloc Québécois

4.6

2.2

4.4

8.5

7.9

0.0

6.0

No second choice

33.0

49.7

23.5

18.6

19.7

28.4

53.7

Tracking Second Choice

End of Week

Week 5

Oct. 13

BASE: Those planning to vote

Wk 2

Wk 3

9

10

11

12

Conservative

10

10

9

8

8

8

8.3

Liberal

16

16

18

18

18

18

17.0

NDP

20

19

18

18

20

20

19.5

Green

15

14

17

17

15

17

17.6

Bloc Québécois

5

6

5

4

4

4

4.6

No second choice

35

35

33

35

35

33

33.0

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Likely Winner (A)

Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next elections, which party do you think will win?

BASE: Those planning to vote

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

Conservative

64.0

64.1

79.8

73.6

65.3

54.7

58.4

Liberal

23.8

23.5

13.7

14.3

26.5

24.4

30.4

NDP

6.4

8.5

4.7

9.3

6.3

4.5

9.0

Green

2.3

3.9

1.8

2.8

2.0

2.0

2.2

Bloc Québécois

3.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

14.4

0.0

Tracking Likely Winner

Week 5

Oct. 13

BASE:
Canadians

9

10

11

12

Conservative

65

63

61

62

64.0

Liberal

23

24

26

25

23.8

NDP

7

7

7

6

6.4

Green

2

3

2

3

2.3

Bloc Québécois

3

4

4

4

3.5

Likely Winner (B)

Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next elections, which party do you think will win?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Those planning to vote

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Conservative

64.0

93.6

46.1

52.3

61.1

40.8

55.2

Liberal

23.8

3.9

51.0

22.6

23.8

24.3

21.3

NDP

6.4

0.9

1.4

23.2

2.9

4.1

13.7

Green

2.3

1.6

1.2

1.0

8.4

1.1

5.9

Bloc Québécois

3.5

0.0

0.4

0.8

3.8

29.8

3.8

Methodology:

EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a rolling average of surveys collected October 11, 12 and 13.

In total, 2561 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is /- 1. percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here to download pdf: election-08-daily-tracking-oct13b


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