DAILY TRACKING - OCTOBER 13, 2008

Conservatives Headed to Victory; Shifts Continue in Ontario and Quebec

[OTTAWA – October 13, 2008] – The Conservatives continue to hold a healthy lead over the Liberals as the Thanksgiving Day weekend nears its close and the start of polling is less than a day away.

There is no sign of any significant break from the pattern of the past week. The Conservatives appear to be set to win the election Tuesday, though on the numbers, a majority seems much less likely than another minority.

Conservative supporters do, however, seem more determined than Liberals to go to the polls on Tuesday. And NDP supporters are growing less likely to turn out. Both of these could be significant for deciding the precise level of Liberal success on Tuesday.

The Liberals will likely retain their position as the official opposition – something that seemed threatened at times in this election, mainly by the burgeoning strength of the BQ.

However, there is still some shifting going on among the electorate. The percentage of undecided voters, while fairly small at 8%, has actually inched up in recent days. In Quebec, an astonishing number of respondents – nearly a quarter – say they are “likely” to change their vote intention before going to the polling station.

In the two battleground provinces in which the election will likely be decided – Quebec and Ontario – there continue to be some small but significant shifts.

The Conservatives seem to have reached their floor in Quebec and rebounded somewhat, having reclaimed their second-place spot in the province, albeit far behind the first-place BQ.

In Ontario, the Liberals have been inching upward, and have been marginally ahead of the Conservatives for a couple of days now.

The Liberals also appear to have recovered in British Columbia vis-à-vis the NDP, who have lost their edge, though the Liberals often poll better than they ballot in the province. The Conservatives remain the comfortable frontrunner in the province.

“We are seeing some slight downward pressure on both NDP and Green Party support at the moment as some of their former supporters think about whom they want to win,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “This appears to be behind the Liberals slight improvement. There are still many supporters of these two parties who are considering their options, but time is running out of course.”

Detailed Tables:

National Federal Vote Intention (A)

Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14^th?

BASE: Decided Voters	CANADA	BC	AB	SK/MB	ON	QC	ATL
n=	2470	590	261	224	487	511	397
Margin of error (+/-)=	2.0	4.0	6.0	6.5	4.4	4.3	4.9
Conservative	34	39	56	43	34	24	23
Liberal	26	24	16	18	36	17	34
NDP	18	22	16	31	17	12	32
Green	11	15	12	7	13	5	10
Bloc Québécois	10	0	0	0	0	41	0

Note - The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 8% of Canadians say they are undecided.

National Federal Vote Intention (B)

Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14^th?

BASE: Decided Voters	CANADA	Gender		Age				Income
BASE: Decided Voters	CANADA	M	F	<25	25-44	45-64	65	<$40K	$40-80K	$80K
n=	2470	1163	1307	158	754	1040	518	742	910	818
Margin of error (/-)=	2.0	2.9	2.7	7.8	3.6	3.0	4.3	3.6	3.2	3.4
Conservative	34	40	29	22	32	36	44	30	34	39
Liberal	26	26	27	20	24	30	30	23	25	31
NDP	18	16	21	29	19	17	14	20	22	13
Green	11	9	13	15	12	9	8	12	10	10
Bloc Québécois	10	9	11	14	13	8	4	15	8	7

Tracking Federal Vote Intention

	2006 Vote	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	2006 Vote	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Conservative	36.3	38	36	36	34	34	34	34	36	36	36	35	33	34	35	36	34	34	34
Liberal	30.2	26	26	25	25	27	25	25	24	25	25	25	26	25	24	24	26	27	26
NDP	17.5	15	19	18	20	19	20	19	19	19	18	19	19	20	20	19	19	18	18
Green	4.5	11	11	13	11	10	11	11	11	10	10	10	12	11	11	11	11	10	11
Bloc Québécois	10.5	9	8	8	10	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	10

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Conservative	35	35	39	44	43	38	36	34	35	35	32	38	42	42	40	36	39	39
Liberal	21	19	20	19	20	22	22	24	21	21	21	20	20	19	19	24	24	24
NDP	27	28	23	24	26	28	29	30	31	31	32	26	25	26	25	23	22	22
Green	14	16	18	13	11	13	14	13	13	13	15	16	13	13	16	17	15	15

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Alberta

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Conservative	60	60	57	57	53	55	51	59	62	63	61	59	63	66	62	60	60	56
Liberal	17	17	18	17	12	14	17	17	19	17	17	14	12	10	12	14	15	16
NDP	10	10	13	14	18	18	19	14	11	12	15	15	13	13	13	16	16	16
Green	12	12	13	12	16	13	13	10	9	8	7	11	11	11	12	10	9	12

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Saskatchewan & Manitoba

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Conservative	43	43	48	41	42	42	47	49	49	48	50	47	40	44	46	45	42	43
Liberal	21	16	18	23	26	26	22	19	18	20	19	20	23	21	18	17	20	18
NDP	30	31	25	25	24	24	21	22	23	18	18	24	29	25	30	31	31	31
Green	6	8	9	10	8	8	10	10	10	14	13	10	9	9	6	7	7	7

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Conservative	42	36	36	32	34	35	36	38	39	38	36	33	35	36	37	35	35	34
Liberal	31	33	31	34	37	33	32	30	31	31	32	33	31	32	31	35	36	36
NDP	12	19	18	21	18	20	19	20	19	18	19	20	20	19	19	17	16	17
Green	13	11	15	13	12	13	12	13	12	12	13	15	14	13	13	13	13	13

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Conservative	27	25	24	21	21	20	21	20	20	19	21	17	17	17	18	20	20	24
Liberal	21	22	21	18	19	19	19	20	20	20	19	21	21	21	20	19	19	17
NDP	9	14	13	14	16	14	13	12	13	13	13	15	15	15	14	14	13	12
Green	7	9	8	7	7	8	8	7	6	5	5	5	7	6	8	6	6	5
Bloc Québécois	35	29	34	40	37	40	40	40	40	42	43	42	40	41	41	40	43	41

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Atlantic Canada

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Conservative	33	32	32	37	30	34	33	39	33	33	31	31	30	31	32	30	25	23
Liberal	37	36	33	24	37	35	33	28	32	35	36	37	32	30	29	32	32	34
NDP	15	24	22	27	25	24	25	21	23	23	23	22	29	30	30	29	33	32
Green	13	7	13	11	8	7	9	12	12	9	10	10	9	9	9	9	10	10

Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?

	Current Vote Intention
BASE: Those planning to vote	CANADA	CPC	LPC	NDP	GP	BQ	Undecided
Not likely (1-3)	78	88	87	77	73	82	25
Somewhat likely (4)	6	5	5	7	8	2	16
Likely (5-7)	15	7	8	16	20	16	59

Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

	End of Week		Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Those planning to vote	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Conservative	11	11	9	8	8	9	9	9	8	8	8	8	9	8	8	7
Liberal	16	12	14	15	13	12	12	11	11	12	11	10	11	9	10	8
NDP	17	14	18	17	15	11	12	13	16	14	14	12	11	14	16	16
Green	19	18	16	13	15	19	24	23	19	17	17	17	14	11	12	20
Bloc Québécois	16	14	18	14	13	10	11	10	12	13	13	12	12	12	15	16
Undecided	43	42	46	43	44	48	50	53	50	47	43	41	42	51	60	59

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Second Choice

Q. Which Party would be your second choice?

		Current Vote Intention
BASE: Those planning to vote	CANADA	CPC	LPC	NDP	GP	BQ	Undecided
Conservative	8	0	12	15	13	8	7
Liberal	18	21	0	33	30	17	13
NDP	20	15	38	0	32	21	8
Green	17	11	25	27	0	22	10
Bloc Québécois	4	3	4	6	5	0	5
No second choice	33	49	22	20	20	32	56

Tracking Second Choice

	End of Week		Week 5
BASE: Those planning to vote	Wk 2	Wk 3	9	10	11	12
Conservative	10	10	9	8	8	8
Liberal	16	16	18	18	18	18
NDP	20	19	18	18	20	20
Green	15	14	17	17	15	17
Bloc Québécois	5	6	5	4	4	4
No second choice	35	35	33	35	35	33

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Likely Winner (A)

Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next elections, which party do you think will win?

BASE: Those planning to vote	CANADA	BC	AB	SK/MB	ON	QC	ATL
Conservative	62	65	79	67	62	52	59
Liberal	25	25	15	18	28	25	30
NDP	6	7	5	11	7	4	9
Green	3	3	1	4	2	3	2
Bloc Québécois	4	0	0	0	0	16	0

Tracking Likely Winner

	Week 5
BASE: Those planning to vote	9	10	11	12
Conservative	65	63	61	62
Liberal	23	24	26