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We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

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For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

DAILY TRACKING – OCTOBER 5, 2008

Race Unshaken By the Debates

[OTTAWA – October 5, 2008] – The leaders’ debates this past week appear to have failed to shake up the election race, despite what some regarded as effective performances by opposition party leaders.

The Conservatives continue to track towards victory, with a potential increase in seats, but at the moment likely short of a majority. The Liberals remain well behind.

More and more voters say they have made up their minds, and the supporters for every party except the Greens are getting firmer in their resolution. Still, the Conservatives may have to contend with a Liberal rally at the end of the race if opposition supporters become worried that Stephen Harper could win a majority.

“Almost a quarter of Ontarians say they might reconsider their voting plans if they believed the Tories were going to win a majority,” said Frank Graves, President of EKOS Research Associates. “Meanwhile, nearly a third of Green supporters continue to openly consider their options. If there were an ‘anyone but Conservatives’ stampede at the end, the Liberals would be the beneficiary. But so far, no such stampede is in progress.”

There has been some movement in some provinces in recent days, even though the national picture remains largely unchanged from before the leaders’ debates. The NDP continues to grow in strength in British Columbia, and the Conservatives are slipping away from their commanding lead of the early campaign.

In Ontario, the race continues to see-saw, with the Liberals pulling into close contention some days, and then dropping back again.

In Quebec, the Liberals are also edging ahead of the Conservatives, depending on the day of the week, but both parties are well behind the Bloc Quebecois, whose strength seems to have grown since last weeks’ debates.

“Every party, except the BQ, now seems set to fall short of its pre-election aims,” said Graves. “There is a little room for change in the days that remain, but that room is shrinking by the hour.”

Detailed Tables:

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

n=

2318

394

95

106

685

720

318

Margin of error (+/-)=

2.0

4.9

10.0

9.5

3.7

3.6

5.5

Conservative

35

32

61

50

36

21

31

Liberal

25

21

17

19

32

19

36

NDP

19

32

15

18

19

13

23

Green

10

15

7

13

13

5

10

Bloc Québécois

10

0

0

0

0

43

0

Note – The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 7% of Canadians say they are undecided and 4% say they do not plan to vote on October 14th.

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

Gender

Age

Income

M

F

<25

25-44

45-64

65

<$40K

$40-80K

$80K

n=

2318

1094

1224

178

787

929

424

771

836

711

Margin of error (/-)=

2.0

3.0

2.8

7.3

3.5

3.2

4.8

3.5

3.4

3.7

Conservative

35

41

28

20

32

35

47

30

34

40

Liberal

25

24

27

21

23

28

26

23

26

28

NDP

19

16

23

28

19

20

14

23

19

15

Green

10

9

11

14

13

9

6

11

9

11

Bloc Québécois

10

10

11

17

13

9

6

13

12

7

Tracking Federal Vote Intention

2006 Vote

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

Conservative

36.3

38

36

36

34

34

34

34

36

36

36

35

Liberal

30.2

26

26

25

25

27

25

25

24

25

25

25

NDP

17.5

15

19

18

20

19

20

19

19

19

18

19

Green

4.5

11

11

13

11

10

11

11

11

10

10

10

Bloc Québécois

10.5

9

8

8

10

9

10

10

10

10

10

10

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

Conservative

35

35

39

44

43

38

36

34

35

35

32

Liberal

21

19

20

19

20

22

22

24

21

21

21

NDP

27

28

23

24

26

28

29

30

31

31

32

Green

14

16

18

13

11

13

14

13

13

13

15

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Alberta

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

Conservative

60

60

57

57

53

55

51

59

62

63

61

Liberal

17

17

18

17

12

14

17

17

19

17

17

NDP

10

10

13

14

18

18

19

14

11

12

15

Green

12

12

13

12

16

13

13

10

9

8

7

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Saskatchewan & Manitoba

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

Conservative

43

43

48

41

42

42

47

49

49

48

50

Liberal

21

16

18

23

26

26

22

19

18

20

19

NDP

30

31

25

25

24

24

21

22

23

18

18

Green

6

8

9

10

8

8

10

10

10

14

13

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

Conservative

42

36

36

32

34

35

36

38

39

38

36

Liberal

31

33

31

34

37

33

32

30

31

31

32

NDP

12

19

18

21

18

20

19

20

19

18

19

Green

13

11

15

13

12

13

12

13

12

12

13

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

Conservative

27

25

24

21

21

20

21

20

20

19

21

Liberal

21

22

21

18

19

19

19

20

20

20

19

NDP

9

14

13

14

16

14

13

12

13

13

13

Green

7

9

8

7

7

8

8

7

6

5

5

Bloc Québécois

35

29

34

40

37

40

40

40

40

42

43

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Atlantic Canada

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

Conservative

33

32

32

37

30

34

33

39

33

33

31

Liberal

37

36

33

24

37

35

33

28

32

35

36

NDP

15

24

22

27

25

24

25

21

23

23

23

Green

13

7

13

11

8

7

9

12

12

9

10

Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Canadians

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Not likely (1-3)

79

88

85

77

71

83

39

Somewhat likely (4)

6

4

4

7

11

5

11

Likely (5-7)

15

8

11

16

19

12

50

Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

End of Week Results

Week 4

BASE:
Decided Voters

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

Conservative

11

11

9

8

8

9

9

9

8

Liberal

16

12

14

15

13

12

12

11

11

NDP

17

14

18

17

15

11

12

13

16

Green

19

18

16

13

15

19

24

23

19

Bloc Québécois

16

14

18

14

13

10

11

10

12

Undecided

43

42

46

43

44

48

50

53

50

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Strategic Vote Switching

Q. If you KNEW that the Conservatives were about to win a majority government in this election, would you then reconsider your current voting intention?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Canadians

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Yes – would reconsider

19

13

19

25

28

10

32

No – would not reconsider

81

87

81

75

72

90

68

Tracking Strategic Vote Switching

Sep.-Oct.

BASE: Canadians % “reconsider” by vote intention

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

Conservative

11

10

11

12

13

13

13

Liberal

20

21

20

21

20

19

19

NDP

24

22

22

22

23

22

25

Green

31

32

31

29

24

26

28

Bloc Québécois

14

15

16

15

10

13

10

Undecided

27

26

27

29

33

32

32

Strategic Vote Switching

Q. If you KNEW that the Conservatives were about to win a majority government in this election, would you then reconsider your current voting intention?

BASE: Canadians

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

Yes – would reconsider

19

17

17

15

23

15

22

No – would not reconsider

81

83

83

85

77

85

78

Where do the “Strategic Switchers” Migrate to?

Q. Which Party do you think you might vote for instead?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Those who say they would change their vote

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Conservative

10

0

11

23

6

6

9

Liberal

24

23

0

34

45

35

24

NDP

12

18

13

0

22

12

11

Green

8

12

11

5

0

4

7

Bloc Québécois

3

3

2

4

2

0

4

Do not know

44

44

63

34

25

43

46

Tracking Vote Switching

Sep.-Oct.

BASE: Those who say they would change their vote

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

Conservative

10

10

11

11

10

9

10

Liberal

24

23

24

23

22

22

24

NDP

14

13

14

15

14

13

12

Green

6

6

7

8

9

9

8

Bloc Québécois

7

3

3

3

4

3

3

Do not know

39

45

41

40

40

44

44

Methodology:

EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a rolling average of surveys collected October 3, 4 and 5.

In total, 2624 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is +/-1.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-oct51

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