Liberals Narrow Gap as Tories Ebb in Ontario & Falter in Quebec

 

[OTTAWA – October 6, 2008] – The Liberals have narrowed the gap with the Conservatives nationally on the strength of a resurgence in Ontario and east, and the Conservatives continuing weakness in Quebec. The latest EKOS tracking poll shows the Liberals seven percentage points behind the Conservatives nationally – the narrowest gap yet in our election polling.

 

“The Conservatives appear to have fallen right out of the race in Quebec, said EKOS President Frank Graves. “They can no longer be confident that they can hang on to all the gains they made there in the 2006 election.”

 

Meanwhile, there has been a see-saw battle in Ontario in the last ten days, with the Liberals pulling abreast of the Conservatives, then falling back again. “They are now in a statistical dead heat,” he said. “Interestingly the Liberals have accomplished this feat even though the Greens and New Democrats are also running quite strongly in the province – at 15% and 20% respectively.”

 

The Liberals may also be establishing themselves in second place in Quebec and in the lead in the Atlantic provinces, though the number of respondents in Atlantic Canada is small, and results there must be treated with caution.

 

“What we have here potentially is a re-emergence of the stark East-West divide in Canadian politics, with the Conservatives driven back on their Western base.”

 

“Some traditional patterns in the support of the two leading parties have also begun to re-assert themselves,” said Graves. “The Conservatives now have a commanding lead over all the other parties among men, but are barely ahead of the Liberals among women.”

 

Despite these recent shifts, which could make the difference between majority and minority for the Conservatives, most voters say they have their minds made up. Green Party voters are somewhat less firm in their intentions that supporters of the other parties, but even they are noticeably more determined in their choice than they were just a few days ago.

 

Roughly one fifth of Canadians say they might reconsider their vote intention if they thought a Tory majority seemed certain, which would probably benefit the Liberals nationally, though perhaps also the NDP in areas such as British Columbia where they are the leading alternative to the government.

 

However, the temptation to vote tactically to block a Conservative majority may wane if the polls continue to show the tightening in the race that has occurred over the last few days. Moreover some voters may drift back to the Tories if they think they are not going to win a majority.

Detailed Tables:

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

 

BASE: Decided Voters	CANADA	BC	AB	SK/MB	ON	QC	ATL
n=	2314	292	119	123	791	798	191
Margin of error (+/-)=	2.0	5.7	9.0	8.8	3.5	3.5	7.1
Conservative	33	38	59	47	33	17	31
Liberal	26	20	14	20	33	21	37
NDP	19	26	15	24	20	15	22
Green	12	16	11	10	15	5	10
Bloc Québécois	10	0	0	0	0	42	0

Note - The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 7% of Canadians say they are undecided and 4% say they do not plan to vote on October 14th.

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

 

BASE: Decided Voters	CANADA	Gender		Age				Income
		M	F	<25	25-44	45-64	65	<$40K	$40-80K	$80K
n=	2314	1093	1221	182	784	922	426	743	843	728
Margin of error (/-)=	2.0	3.0	2.8	7.3	3.5	3.2	4.7	3.6	3.4	3.6
Conservative	33	38	29	21	29	36	42	32	31	36
Liberal	26	24	27	19	24	28	27	21	26	30
NDP	19	17	22	29	20	18	16	20	22	16
Green	12	12	11	18	14	9	8	14	10	11
Bloc Québécois	10	10	11	13	12	9	7	13	12	6

 

Tracking Federal Vote Intention

	2006 Vote	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters		Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6
Conservative	36.3	38	36	36	34	34	34	34	36	36	36	35	33
Liberal	30.2	26	26	25	25	27	25	25	24	25	25	25	26
NDP	17.5	15	19	18	20	19	20	19	19	19	18	19	19
Green	4.5	11	11	13	11	10	11	11	11	10	10	10	12
Bloc Québécois	10.5	9	8	8	10	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

 

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6
Conservative	35	35	39	44	43	38	36	34	35	35	32	38
Liberal	21	19	20	19	20	22	22	24	21	21	21	20
NDP	27	28	23	24	26	28	29	30	31	31	32	26
Green	14	16	18	13	11	13	14	13	13	13	15	16

 

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Alberta

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6
Conservative	60	60	57	57	53	55	51	59	62	63	61	59
Liberal	17	17	18	17	12	14	17	17	19	17	17	14
NDP	10	10	13	14	18	18	19	14	11	12	15	15
Green	12	12	13	12	16	13	13	10	9	8	7	11

 

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Saskatchewan & Manitoba

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6
Conservative	43	43	48	41	42	42	47	49	49	48	50	47
Liberal	21	16	18	23	26	26	22	19	18	20	19	20
NDP	30	31	25	25	24	24	21	22	23	18	18	24
Green	6	8	9	10	8	8	10	10	10	14	13	10

 

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6
Conservative	42	36	36	32	34	35	36	38	39	38	36	33
Liberal	31	33	31	34	37	33	32	30	31	31	32	33
NDP	12	19	18	21	18	20	19	20	19	18	19	20
Green	13	11	15	13	12	13	12	13	12	12	13	15

 

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6
Conservative	27	25	24	21	21	20	21	20	20	19	21	17
Liberal	21	22	21	18	19	19	19	20	20	20	19	21
NDP	9	14	13	14	16	14	13	12	13	13	13	15
Green	7	9	8	7	7	8	8	7	6	5	5	5
Bloc Québécois	35	29	34	40	37	40	40	40	40	42	43	42

 

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Atlantic Canada

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6
Conservative	33	32	32	37	30	34	33	39	33	33	31	31
Liberal	37	36	33	24	37	35	33	28	32	35	36	37
NDP	15	24	22	27	25	24	25	21	23	23	23	22
Green	13	7	13	11	8	7	9	12	12	9	10	10

 

Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?

 

	Current Vote Intention
BASE: Canadians	CANADA	CPC	LPC	NDP	GP	BQ	Undecided
Not likely (1-3)	79	88	83	78	74	82	41
Somewhat likely (4)	6	4	6	8	9	5	12
Likely (5-7)	14	8	12	14	17	13	47

 

Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

	End of Week Results			Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Wk 2	Wk 3	Wk 4		6
Conservative	11	11	9		8
Liberal	16	12	12		12
NDP	17	14	12		14
Green	19	18	24		17
Bloc Québécois	16	14	11		13
Undecided	43	42	50		47

 Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

 

Strategic Vote Switching

Q. If you KNEW that the Conservatives were about to win a majority government in this election, would you then reconsider your current voting intention?

 

	Current Vote Intention
BASE: Canadians	CANADA	CPC	LPC	NDP	GP	BQ	Undecided
Yes – would reconsider	21	14	21	24	30	13	39
No – would not reconsider	79	86	79	76	70	87	61

 

Tracking Strategic Vote Switching

	Sep.-Oct.
BASE: Canadians % “reconsider” by vote intention	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6
Conservative	11	10	11	12	13	13	13	14
Liberal	20	21	20	21	20	19	19	21
NDP	24	22	22	22	23	22	25	24
Green	31	32	31	29	24	26	28	30
Bloc Québécois	14	15	16	15	10	13	10	13
Undecided	27	26	27	29	33	32	32	39

 

Strategic Vote Switching

Q. If you KNEW that the Conservatives were about to win a majority government in this election, would you then reconsider your current voting intention?

 

BASE: Canadians	CANADA	BC	AB	SK/MB	ON	QC	ATL
Yes – would reconsider	21	22	16	24	25	16	22
No – would not reconsider	79	78	84	76	75	84	78

 

Where do the “Strategic Switchers” Migrate to?

Q. Which Party do you think you might vote for instead?

 

		Current Vote Intention
BASE: Those who say they would change their vote	CANADA	CPC	LPC	NDP	GP	BQ	Undecided
Conservative	11	0	13	17	11	19	11
Liberal	24	23	0	44	33	26	34
NDP	14	21	19	0	24	17	4
Green	6	6	9	6	0	9	4
Bloc Québécois	2	1	1	4	2	0	6
Do not know	42	49	59	29	29	29	41

 

Tracking Vote Switching

	Sep.-Oct.
BASE: Those who say they would change their vote	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6
Conservative	10	10	11	11	10	9	10	11
Liberal	24	23	24	23	22	22	24	24
NDP	14	13	14	15	14	13	12	14
Green	6	6	7	8	9	9	8	6
Bloc Québécois	7	3	3	3