Conservatives Retain Significant Lead
[OTTAWA – October 7, 2008] – The Conservatives continue to track towards re-election, albeit not necessarily the majority they wished for at the outset of the campaign. Quebec remains a huge disappointment for the Conservatives, where they trail the Bloc Québécois by a seemingly insurmountable margin. And the battle for Ontario continues.
“Canadians seem stuck between repellent poles,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “There is limited enthusiasm for a Tory majority, or even a Tory government. But the obvious alternative – a Dion government – hardly seems appetizing either for most Canadians.”
“We have seen this in campaigns before,” said Graves, “when each time the electorate collectively begins to consider one of the alternatives for government, voters start drifting in the opposite direction.”
There has been something of a see-saw in Tory support since this campaign began, but each time the upward thrust is a little weaker, while the downward thrust goes a little lower. Meanwhile, the regional distribution of Conservative support, even at the level shown in today’s tracking poll, is not as favourable to the party as it was earlier in the campaign.
At these levels of support, the Conservatives stand to win only a handful of seats in Quebec, and the splits in Ontario, where they are fighting it out with the Liberals for first place are actually quite favourable for the NDP, which is in third. There is a particular aversion to Stephen Harper among young voters in Ontario – many of them now supporting the NDP; in 2006, they were a factor in the province when some moved to the liberals in the final days of the campaign.
Although there continues to be some room for movement in Quebec and the Atlantic, the patterns are setting quickly.
“As we have been saying for several days now, although we continue to see some modest shifts in public opinion that can have quite large effects on the distribution of seats due to our first-past-the-post electoral system, the underlying pattern is one of relative stability – with the parties in the same order now as they were at the beginning of the campaign,” said Graves. “And each night that passes, voters’ are hardening their decisions.”
Detailed Tables:
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
2807 |
406 |
143 |
133 |
997 |
951 |
177 |
|
|
Margin of error (+/-)= |
1.8 |
4.9 |
8.2 |
8.5 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
7.4 |
|
Conservative |
34 |
42 |
63 |
40 |
35 |
17 |
30 |
|
Liberal |
25 |
20 |
12 |
23 |
31 |
21 |
32 |
|
NDP |
20 |
25 |
13 |
29 |
20 |
15 |
29 |
|
Green |
11 |
13 |
11 |
9 |
14 |
7 |
9 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
40 |
0 |
Note – The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 8% of Canadians say they are undecided and 4% say they do not plan to vote on October 14th.
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Gender |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65 |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
$80K |
||
|
n= |
2807 |
1310 |
1497 |
203 |
932 |
1118 |
554 |
909 |
1048 |
850 |
|
Margin of error (/-)= |
1.8 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
6.9 |
3.2 |
2.9 |
4.2 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
3.4 |
|
Conservative |
34 |
39 |
30 |
23 |
29 |
38 |
42 |
33 |
33 |
37 |
|
Liberal |
25 |
23 |
26 |
17 |
24 |
26 |
27 |
21 |
24 |
30 |
|
NDP |
20 |
17 |
23 |
27 |
22 |
17 |
19 |
22 |
22 |
15 |
|
Green |
11 |
11 |
11 |
20 |
13 |
10 |
6 |
11 |
10 |
12 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
9 |
11 |
13 |
12 |
9 |
6 |
13 |
10 |
6 |
Tracking Federal Vote Intention
|
|
2006 Vote |
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
36.3 |
38 |
36 |
36 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
36 |
36 |
36 |
35 |
33 |
34 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
30.2 |
26 |
26 |
25 |
25 |
27 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
26 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
17.5 |
15 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
4.5 |
11 |
11 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
12 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
10.5 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk 1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Conservative |
35 |
35 |
39 |
44 |
43 |
38 |
36 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
32 |
38 |
42 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Liberal |
21 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
22 |
22 |
24 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
NDP |
27 |
28 |
23 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
26 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Green |
14 |
16 |
18 |
13 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
16 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Alberta
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
Conservative |
60 |
60 |
57 |
57 |
53 |
55 |
51 |
59 |
62 |
63 |
61 |
59 |
63 |
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
Liberal |
17 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
12 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
17 |
14 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
NDP |
10 |
10 |
13 |
14 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
15 |
15 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
Green |
12 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
16 |
13 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Saskatchewan & Manitoba
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
43 |
43 |
48 |
41 |
42 |
42 |
47 |
49 |
49 |
48 |
50 |
47 |
40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
16 |
18 |
23 |
26 |
26 |
22 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
30 |
31 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
18 |
18 |
24 |
29 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
6 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
14 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
42 |
36 |
36 |
32 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
38 |
39 |
38 |
36 |
33 |
35 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
31 |
33 |
31 |
34 |
37 |
33 |
32 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
33 |
31 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
12 |
19 |
18 |
21 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
13 |
11 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
15 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
27 |
25 |
24 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
17 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
22 |
21 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
9 |
14 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
7 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
35 |
29 |
34 |
40 |
37 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
42 |
43 |
42 |
40 |
|
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Atlantic Canada
|
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
33 |
32 |
32 |
37 |
30 |
34 |
33 |
39 |
33 |
33 |
31 |
31 |
30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
37 |
36 |
33 |
24 |
37 |
35 |
33 |
28 |
32 |
35 |
36 |
37 |
32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
15 |
24 |
22 |
27 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
22 |
29 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
13 |
7 |
13 |
11 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
12 |
12 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Not likely (1-3) |
80 |
89 |
83 |
77 |
74 |
83 |
44 |
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
7 |
4 |
6 |
10 |
9 |
3 |
13 |
|
Likely (5-7) |
14 |
8 |
11 |
14 |
17 |
13 |
43 |
Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
|
|
End of Week Results |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
BASE: |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
Wk 4 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Conservative |
11 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Liberal |
16 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
NDP |
17 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Green |
19 |
18 |
24 |
17 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Bloc Québécois |
16 |
14 |
11 |
13 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
Undecided |
43 |
42 |
50 |
47 |
43 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Strategic Vote Switching
Q. If you KNEW that the Conservatives were about to win a majority government in this election, would you then reconsider your current voting intention?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Yes – would reconsider |
21 |
12 |
23 |
25 |
29 |
15 |
35 |
|
No – would not reconsider |
79 |
88 |
77 |
75 |
71 |
85 |
65 |
Tracking Strategic Vote Switching
|
|
Sep.-Oct. |
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
BASE: Canadians % “reconsider” by vote intention |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
11 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
14 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
20 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
21 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
24 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
23 |
22 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
31 |
32 |
31 |
29 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
30 |
29 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
14 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
10 |
13 |
10 |
13 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
27 |
26 |
27 |
29 |
33 |
32 |
32 |
39 |
35 |
|
|
|
|
Strategic Vote Switching
Q. If you KNEW that the Conservatives were about to win a majority government in this election, would you then reconsider your current voting intention?
|
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
|
Yes – would reconsider |
21 |
23 |
10 |
25 |
24 |
17 |
24 |
|
No – would not reconsider |
79 |
77 |
90 |
75 |
76 |
83 |
76 |
Where do the “Strategic Switchers” Migrate to?
Q. Which Party do you think you might vote for instead?
|
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
|||||
|
BASE: Those who say they would change their vote |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
|
Conservative |
10 |
0 |
14 |
12 |
10 |
14 |
10 |
|
Liberal |
23 |
24 |
0 |
42 |
34 |
21 |
27 |
|
NDP |
16 |
26 |
22 |
0 |
25 |
14 |
8 |
|
Green |
7 |
11 |
8 |
9 |
0 |
8 |
5 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
2 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
3 |
0 |
4 |
|
Do not know |
41 |
38 |
56 |
32 |
27 |
42 |
45 |
Tracking Vote Switching
|
|
Sep.-Oct. |
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
BASE: Those who say they would change their vote |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
10 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
24 |
23 |
24 |
23 |
22 |
22 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
14 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
6 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
8 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
7 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Do not know |
39 |
45 |
41 |
40 |
40 |
44 |
44 |
42 |
41 |
|
|
|
|
Methodology:
EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.
Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a rolling average of surveys collected October 5, 6 and 7.
In total, 3176 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is +/-1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Clicke here to insert PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-oct7