Tories Fighting Regional Battles But Winning Nationally

 

[OTTAWA – October 8, 2008] – The Conservatives continue to maintain a significant lead nationally over all the opposition parties, according to the latest EKOS tracking poll, and have a significant lead with some of the most important groups of voters, but they are fighting a series of very different regional battles.

 

“Across the country, the Conservatives hold significant leads among many of the demographic groups most likely to vote, such as seniors, men and baby-boomers,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “There is nothing in this picture that suggests that the Conservatives have been knocked off track from winning government again, by either the leaders’ debates or the international financial crisis.”

 

“We see no sign of a Tory collapse or a Liberal surge. It does seem that some voters have been drifting between parties in recent days, perhaps because none of them inspires much enthusiasm with the electorate,” he said. “There is some tentativeness and instability, and the gap with the Liberals was narrowing for a few days but the Tory lead, if anything is widening now, not shrinking.”

 

In British Columbia, the Conservatives seem to be regaining some of their momentum of earlier in the campaign, re-establishing a significant lead over their closest rival, the New Democrats.

 

In the Prairie provinces they are clearly ahead, though challenged in Manitoba and Saskatchewan by both the NDP and the Liberals.

 

In Ontario, meanwhile, the Conservatives are struggling to shake off a determined Liberal challenge and a significant NDP presence. However, they maintain a narrow lead.

 

In Quebec, Conservative support continues to slide and the Liberals are now emerging as principal federalist alternative to the Bloc Quebecois.

 

In the Atlantic provinces, meanwhile, there appears to be a three-way battle, including the Liberals and the New Democrats, though as always, relatively small case-numbers.

 

Detailed Tables:

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

 

BASE: Decided Voters	CANADA	BC	AB	SK/MB	ON	QC	ATL
n=	3178	611	166	132	1008	1004	257
Margin of error (+/-)=	1.7	4.0	7.6	8.5	3.1	3.1	6.1
Conservative	35	42	66	44	36	17	31
Liberal	24	19	10	21	32	21	30
NDP	20	26	13	25	19	15	30
Green	11	13	11	9	13	6	9
Bloc Québécois	10	0	0	0	0	41	0

 

Note - The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 7% of Canadians say they are undecided and 4% say they do not plan to vote on October 14th.

National Federal Vote Intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

 

BASE: Decided Voters	CANADA	Gender		Age				Income
		M	F	<25	25-44	45-64	65	<$40K	$40-80K	$80K
n=	3178	1493	1685	239	1029	1278	632	1085	1151	942
Margin of error (/-)=	1.7	2.5	2.4	6.3	3.0	2.7	3.9	3.0	2.9	3.2
Conservative	35	40	31	25	31	38	45	34	35	37
Liberal	24	24	25	18	23	24	29	20	24	30
NDP	20	17	22	24	21	18	16	23	20	15
Green	11	11	11	19	12	11	5	11	10	12
Bloc Québécois	10	9	11	14	12	9	5	13	10	7

 

 

Tracking Federal Vote Intention

	2006 Vote	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters		Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Conservative	36.3	38	36	36	34	34	34	34	36	36	36	35	33	34	35
Liberal	30.2	26	26	25	25	27	25	25	24	25	25	25	26	25	24
NDP	17.5	15	19	18	20	19	20	19	19	19	18	19	19	20	20
Green	4.5	11	11	13	11	10	11	11	11	10	10	10	12	11	11
Bloc Québécois	10.5	9	8	8	10	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

 

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Conservative	35	35	39	44	43	38	36	34	35	35	32	38	42	42
Liberal	21	19	20	19	20	22	22	24	21	21	21	20	20	19
NDP	27	28	23	24	26	28	29	30	31	31	32	26	25	26
Green	14	16	18	13	11	13	14	13	13	13	15	16	13	13

 

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Alberta

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Conservative	60	60	57	57	53	55	51	59	62	63	61	59	63	66
Liberal	17	17	18	17	12	14	17	17	19	17	17	14	12	10
NDP	10	10	13	14	18	18	19	14	11	12	15	15	13	13
Green	12	12	13	12	16	13	13	10	9	8	7	11	11	11

 

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Saskatchewan & Manitoba

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Conservative	43	43	48	41	42	42	47	49	49	48	50	47	40	44
Liberal	21	16	18	23	26	26	22	19	18	20	19	20	23	21
NDP	30	31	25	25	24	24	21	22	23	18	18	24	29	25
Green	6	8	9	10	8	8	10	10	10	14	13	10	9	9

 

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Conservative	42	36	36	32	34	35	36	38	39	38	36	33	35	36
Liberal	31	33	31	34	37	33	32	30	31	31	32	33	31	32
NDP	12	19	18	21	18	20	19	20	19	18	19	20	20	19
Green	13	11	15	13	12	13	12	13	12	12	13	15	14	13

 

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Conservative	27	25	24	21	21	20	21	20	20	19	21	17	17	17
Liberal	21	22	21	18	19	19	19	20	20	20	19	21	21	21
NDP	9	14	13	14	16	14	13	12	13	13	13	15	15	15
Green	7	9	8	7	7	8	8	7	6	5	5	5	7	6
Bloc Québécois	35	29	34	40	37	40	40	40	40	42	43	42	40	41

 

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Atlantic Canada

	Pre-Writ	End of Week Results			Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Sep. 3	Wk1	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Conservative	33	32	32	37	30	34	33	39	33	33	31	31	30	31
Liberal	37	36	33	24	37	35	33	28	32	35	36	37	32	30
NDP	15	24	22	27	25	24	25	21	23	23	23	22	29	30
Green	13	7	13	11	8	7	9	12	12	9	10	10	9	9

 

Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?

 

	Current Vote Intention
BASE: Canadians	CANADA	CPC	LPC	NDP	GP	BQ	Undecided
Not likely (1-3)	80	89	84	80	73	85	41
Somewhat likely (4)	6	3	6	8	10	3	18
Likely (5-7)	13	8	10	12	17	12	41

 

Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

	End of Week		Week 4							Week 5
BASE: Decided Voters	Wk 2	Wk 3	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Conservative	11	11	9	8	8	9	9	9	8	8	8	8
Liberal	16	12	14	15	13	12	12	11	11	12	11	10
NDP	17	14	18	17	15	11	12	13	16	14	14	12
Green	19	18	16	13	15	19	24	23	19	17	17	17
Bloc Québécois	16	14	18	14	13	10	11	10	12	13	13	12
Undecided	43	42	46	43	44	48	50	53	50	47	43	41

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

 

Strategic Vote Switching

Q. If you KNEW that the Conservatives were about to win a majority government in this election, would you then reconsider your current voting intention?

 

	Current Vote Intention
BASE: Canadians	CANADA	CPC	LPC	NDP	GP	BQ	Undecided
Yes – would reconsider	20	13	22	22	31	15	34
No – would not reconsider	80	87	78	78	69	85	66

 

Tracking Strategic Vote Switching

	Sep.-Oct.
BASE: Canadians % “reconsider” by vote intention	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Conservative	11	10	11	12	13	13	13	14	12	13
Liberal	20	21	20	21	20	19	19	21	23	22
NDP	24	22	22	22	23	22	25	24	25	22
Green	31	32	31	29	24	26	28	30	29	31
Bloc Québécois	14	15	16	15	10	13	10	13	15	15
Undecided	27	26	27	29	33	32	32	39	35	34

 

Where do the “Strategic Switchers” Migrate to?

Q. Which Party do you think you might vote for instead?

 

		Current Vote Intention
BASE: Those who say they would change their vote	CANADA	CPC	LPC	NDP	GP	BQ	Undecided
Conservative	7	0	11	9	6	9	11
Liberal	23	25	0	40	32	27	22
NDP	18	25	27	0	25	10	11
Green	8	11	8	9	0	9	8
Bloc Québécois	2	1	1	4	3	0	2
Do not know	42	38	52	37	33	44	46

 

Tracking Vote Switching

	Sep.-Oct.
BASE: Those who say they would change their vote	29	30	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Conservative	10	10	11	11	10	9	10	11	10	7
Liberal	24	23	24	23	22	22	24	24	23	23
NDP	14	13	14	15	14	13	12	14	16	18