Tories Fighting Regional Battles But Winning Nationally
[OTTAWA – October 8, 2008] – The Conservatives continue to maintain a significant lead nationally over all the opposition parties, according to the latest EKOS tracking poll, and have a significant lead with some of the most important groups of voters, but they are fighting a series of very different regional battles.
“Across the country, the Conservatives hold significant leads among many of the demographic groups most likely to vote, such as seniors, men and baby-boomers,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “There is nothing in this picture that suggests that the Conservatives have been knocked off track from winning government again, by either the leaders’ debates or the international financial crisis.”
“We see no sign of a Tory collapse or a Liberal surge. It does seem that some voters have been drifting between parties in recent days, perhaps because none of them inspires much enthusiasm with the electorate,” he said. “There is some tentativeness and instability, and the gap with the Liberals was narrowing for a few days but the Tory lead, if anything is widening now, not shrinking.”
In British Columbia, the Conservatives seem to be regaining some of their momentum of earlier in the campaign, re-establishing a significant lead over their closest rival, the New Democrats.
In the Prairie provinces they are clearly ahead, though challenged in Manitoba and Saskatchewan by both the NDP and the Liberals.
In Ontario, meanwhile, the Conservatives are struggling to shake off a determined Liberal challenge and a significant NDP presence. However, they maintain a narrow lead.
In Quebec, Conservative support continues to slide and the Liberals are now emerging as principal federalist alternative to the Bloc Quebecois.
In the Atlantic provinces, meanwhile, there appears to be a three-way battle, including the Liberals and the New Democrats, though as always, relatively small case-numbers.
Detailed Tables:
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
BC |
AB |
SK/MB |
ON |
QC |
ATL |
3178 |
611 |
166 |
132 |
1008 |
1004 |
257 |
|
Margin of error (+/-)= |
1.7 |
4.0 |
7.6 |
8.5 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
6.1 |
Conservative |
35 |
42 |
66 |
44 |
36 |
17 |
31 |
Liberal |
24 |
19 |
10 |
21 |
32 |
21 |
30 |
NDP |
20 |
26 |
13 |
25 |
19 |
15 |
30 |
Green |
11 |
13 |
11 |
9 |
13 |
6 |
9 |
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
41 |
0 |
Note – The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 7% of Canadians say they are undecided and 4% say they do not plan to vote on October 14th.
National Federal Vote Intention
Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
BASE: Decided Voters |
CANADA |
Gender |
Age |
Income |
||||||
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65 |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
$80K |
||
3178 |
1493 |
1685 |
239 |
1029 |
1278 |
632 |
1085 |
1151 |
942 |
|
Margin of error (/-)= |
1.7 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
6.3 |
3.0 |
2.7 |
3.9 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
Conservative |
35 |
40 |
31 |
25 |
31 |
38 |
45 |
34 |
35 |
37 |
Liberal |
24 |
24 |
25 |
18 |
23 |
24 |
29 |
20 |
24 |
30 |
NDP |
20 |
17 |
22 |
24 |
21 |
18 |
16 |
23 |
20 |
15 |
Green |
11 |
11 |
11 |
19 |
12 |
11 |
5 |
11 |
10 |
12 |
Bloc Québécois |
10 |
9 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
9 |
5 |
13 |
10 |
7 |
Tracking Federal Vote Intention
|
2006 Vote |
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
36.3 |
38 |
36 |
36 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
34 |
36 |
36 |
36 |
35 |
33 |
34 |
35 |
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
30.2 |
26 |
26 |
25 |
25 |
27 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
25 |
26 |
25 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
NDP |
17.5 |
15 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
Green |
4.5 |
11 |
11 |
13 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
10.5 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
35 |
35 |
39 |
44 |
43 |
38 |
36 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
32 |
38 |
42 |
42 |
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
22 |
22 |
24 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
NDP |
27 |
28 |
23 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
26 |
25 |
26 |
|
|
|
|
Green |
14 |
16 |
18 |
13 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
16 |
13 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Alberta
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
60 |
60 |
57 |
57 |
53 |
55 |
51 |
59 |
62 |
63 |
61 |
59 |
63 |
66 |
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
17 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
12 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
17 |
14 |
12 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
NDP |
10 |
10 |
13 |
14 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
15 |
15 |
13 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
Green |
12 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
16 |
13 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Saskatchewan & Manitoba
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
43 |
43 |
48 |
41 |
42 |
42 |
47 |
49 |
49 |
48 |
50 |
47 |
40 |
44 |
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
16 |
18 |
23 |
26 |
26 |
22 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
23 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
NDP |
30 |
31 |
25 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
18 |
18 |
24 |
29 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
Green |
6 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
14 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
42 |
36 |
36 |
32 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
38 |
39 |
38 |
36 |
33 |
35 |
36 |
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
31 |
33 |
31 |
34 |
37 |
33 |
32 |
30 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
33 |
31 |
32 |
|
|
|
|
NDP |
12 |
19 |
18 |
21 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
Green |
13 |
11 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
27 |
25 |
24 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
22 |
21 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
NDP |
9 |
14 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
Green |
7 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
35 |
29 |
34 |
40 |
37 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
42 |
43 |
42 |
40 |
41 |
|
|
|
|
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Atlantic Canada
|
Pre-Writ |
End of Week Results |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
BASE: |
Sep. 3 |
Wk1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
33 |
32 |
32 |
37 |
30 |
34 |
33 |
39 |
33 |
33 |
31 |
31 |
30 |
31 |
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
37 |
36 |
33 |
24 |
37 |
35 |
33 |
28 |
32 |
35 |
36 |
37 |
32 |
30 |
|
|
|
|
NDP |
15 |
24 |
22 |
27 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
23 |
22 |
29 |
30 |
|
|
|
|
Green |
13 |
7 |
13 |
11 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
12 |
12 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
Not likely (1-3) |
80 |
89 |
84 |
80 |
73 |
85 |
41 |
Somewhat likely (4) |
6 |
3 |
6 |
8 |
10 |
3 |
18 |
Likely (5-7) |
13 |
8 |
10 |
12 |
17 |
12 |
41 |
Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention
|
End of Week |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
BASE: |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
11 |
11 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
16 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
NDP |
17 |
14 |
18 |
17 |
15 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
16 |
14 |
14 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
Green |
19 |
18 |
16 |
13 |
15 |
19 |
24 |
23 |
19 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
16 |
14 |
18 |
14 |
13 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
43 |
42 |
46 |
43 |
44 |
48 |
50 |
53 |
50 |
47 |
43 |
41 |
|
|
|
|
Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)
Strategic Vote Switching
Q. If you KNEW that the Conservatives were about to win a majority government in this election, would you then reconsider your current voting intention?
|
Current Vote Intention |
||||||
BASE: Canadians |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
Yes – would reconsider |
20 |
13 |
22 |
22 |
31 |
15 |
34 |
No – would not reconsider |
80 |
87 |
78 |
78 |
69 |
85 |
66 |
Tracking Strategic Vote Switching
|
Sep.-Oct. |
|
|
|
|||||||||
BASE: Canadians % “reconsider” by vote intention |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
|
|
Conservative |
11 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
14 |
12 |
13 |
|
|
|
Liberal |
20 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
21 |
23 |
22 |
|
|
|
NDP |
24 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
23 |
22 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
22 |
|
|
|
Green |
31 |
32 |
31 |
29 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
30 |
29 |
31 |
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
14 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
10 |
13 |
10 |
13 |
15 |
15 |
|
|
|
Undecided |
27 |
26 |
27 |
29 |
33 |
32 |
32 |
39 |
35 |
34 |
|
|
|
Where do the “Strategic Switchers” Migrate to?
Q. Which Party do you think you might vote for instead?
|
|
Current Vote Intention |
|||||
BASE: Those who say they would change their vote |
CANADA |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
GP |
BQ |
Undecided |
Conservative |
7 |
0 |
11 |
9 |
6 |
9 |
11 |
Liberal |
23 |
25 |
0 |
40 |
32 |
27 |
22 |
NDP |
18 |
25 |
27 |
0 |
25 |
10 |
11 |
Green |
8 |
11 |
8 |
9 |
0 |
9 |
8 |
Bloc Québécois |
2 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
0 |
2 |
Do not know |
42 |
38 |
52 |
37 |
33 |
44 |
46 |
Tracking Vote Switching
|
Sep.-Oct. |
|
|
|
|||||||||
BASE: Those who say they would change their vote |
29 |
30 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
|
|
Conservative |
10 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
10 |
7 |
|
|
|
Liberal |
24 |
23 |
24 |
23 |
22 |
22 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
23 |
|
|
|
NDP |
14 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
18 |
|
|
|
Green |
6 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
8 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
7 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
Do not know |
39 |
45 |
41 |
40 |
40 |
44 |
44 |
42 |
41 |
42 |
|
|
|
Methodology:
EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.
Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a rolling average of surveys collected October 6, 7 and 8.
In total, 3599 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is +/- 1.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-oct8