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We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

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DAILY TRACKING – OCTOBER 9, 2008

Conservative Lead Grows as Canadians Expect 2nd Harper Government

[OTTAWA – October 9, 2008] – The Conservatives continue to widen their lead over the second place Liberals in the latest EKOS tracking poll, and each day that passes removes a little more potential for fundamental change to the basic pattern of this election, which has held with some ups and downs since the first week.

Almost a quarter of Canadians now believe the Liberals are likely to win the election, which is much higher than earlier in the campaign – likely a reflection of media coverage suggesting they have been doing better in recent days.

“The perception that the Liberals could win does not seem to have created a bandwagon, however,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “It may even have hurt them somewhat by putting a spotlight on Stéphane Dion instead of Stephen Harper, when the electorate is not enamoured of either.”

Still, the vast majority of Canadians – 65% – now say that they believe the Conservatives will win, regardless of their own voting intentions.

The room for a tactical surge to stop the Conservatives is clearly shrinking. Roughly four-fifths of Canadians are now firmly committed to their vote choice – closer to nine-tenths in the case of Conservative supporters.

Even Green Party supporters, who had been much more likely to consider changing their vote earlier in the campaign, now seem to be firming up their intention and plan to stick with the Greens.

And if voters were to start moving, it is not clear that they would aggregate behind any single opposition party: in fact the NDP, Liberals and Greens are now about equal as the second choice party among Canadians.

“The Conservatives have survived most of the challenges to their continuing hold on power,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “A Tory victory now seems quite likely if not yet certain.”

In Ontario, where there has been a see-saw battle between the Liberals and the Conservatives for several weeks, the Liberals are now slipping back and the Conservatives have reclaimed a clear lead. In British Columbia, too, they have re-asserted themselves as the dominant party.

Only in Quebec does their campaign continue to languish badly, well behind the front-running Bloc Québécois. In fact the Liberals are rising as a “second choice” in the province, suggesting they might still have some room for growth there.

Although there has been a sour mood in this election, noted by many commentators, 78% of Canadians say that they consider this election to be more important than the 2006 election. What is most notable is that Conservatives and NDP supporters are more likely to take this view than the supporters of other parties, suggesting they may be more to get out and vote on election day. Green Party supporters are least likely to see this election as especially important.

Detailed Tables:

Intention to Vote

Q. How certain are you to vote in the federal election this coming Tuesday, October 14th?

BASE: Canadians

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

Absolutely certain

81

79

80

86

84

79

74

Quite certain

5

4

7

3

4

5

8

Not sure

6

7

7

6

4

7

8

Will not vote

5

7

5

3

4

4

9

Have already voted (AP)

3

3

1

1

4

5

1

National Federal Vote Intention (A)

Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

n=

2934

648

199

166

795

765

361

Margin of error (+/-)=

1.8

3.8

6.9

7.6

3.5

3.5

5.2

Conservative

36

40

62

46

37

18

32

Liberal

24

19

12

18

31

20

29

NDP

19

25

13

30

19

14

30

Green

11

16

12

6

13

8

9

Bloc Québécois

10

0

0

0

0

41

0

Note – The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 7% of Canadians say they are undecided and 3% say they do not plan to vote on October 14th.

National Federal Vote Intention (B)

Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?

BASE: Decided Voters

CANADA

Gender

Age

Income

M

F

<25

25-44

45-64

65

<$40K

$40-80K

$80K

n=

2934

1369

1565

213

903

1256

562

963

1043

928

Margin of error (/-)=

1.8

2.6

2.5

6.7

3.3

2.8

4.1

3.2

3.0

3.2

Conservative

36

39

32

25

33

37

44

31

37

40

Liberal

24

24

24

20

21

25

29

20

23

29

NDP

19

16

23

21

22

18

15

24

20

14

Green

11

12

11

18

12

11

6

12

11

11

Bloc Québécois

10

9

11

15

12

9

6

13

10

6

Tracking Federal Vote Intention

2006 Vote

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Conservative

36.3

38

36

36

34

34

34

34

36

36

36

35

33

34

35

36

Liberal

30.2

26

26

25

25

27

25

25

24

25

25

25

26

25

24

24

NDP

17.5

15

19

18

20

19

20

19

19

19

18

19

19

20

20

19

Green

4.5

11

11

13

11

10

11

11

11

10

10

10

12

11

11

11

Bloc Québécois

10.5

9

8

8

10

9

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Conservative

35

35

39

44

43

38

36

34

35

35

32

38

42

42

40

Liberal

21

19

20

19

20

22

22

24

21

21

21

20

20

19

19

NDP

27

28

23

24

26

28

29

30

31

31

32

26

25

26

25

Green

14

16

18

13

11

13

14

13

13

13

15

16

13

13

16

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Alberta

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Conservative

60

60

57

57

53

55

51

59

62

63

61

59

63

66

62

Liberal

17

17

18

17

12

14

17

17

19

17

17

14

12

10

12

NDP

10

10

13

14

18

18

19

14

11

12

15

15

13

13

13

Green

12

12

13

12

16

13

13

10

9

8

7

11

11

11

12

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Saskatchewan & Manitoba

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Conservative

43

43

48

41

42

42

47

49

49

48

50

47

40

44

46

Liberal

21

16

18

23

26

26

22

19

18

20

19

20

23

21

18

NDP

30

31

25

25

24

24

21

22

23

18

18

24

29

25

30

Green

6

8

9

10

8

8

10

10

10

14

13

10

9

9

6

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Conservative

42

36

36

32

34

35

36

38

39

38

36

33

35

36

37

Liberal

31

33

31

34

37

33

32

30

31

31

32

33

31

32

31

NDP

12

19

18

21

18

20

19

20

19

18

19

20

20

19

19

Green

13

11

15

13

12

13

12

13

12

12

13

15

14

13

13

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Conservative

27

25

24

21

21

20

21

20

20

19

21

17

17

17

18

Liberal

21

22

21

18

19

19

19

20

20

20

19

21

21

21

20

NDP

9

14

13

14

16

14

13

12

13

13

13

15

15

15

14

Green

7

9

8

7

7

8

8

7

6

5

5

5

7

6

8

Bloc Québécois

35

29

34

40

37

40

40

40

40

42

43

42

40

41

41

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Atlantic Canada

Pre-Writ

End of Week Results

Week 4

Week 5

BASE:
Decided Voters

Sep. 3

Wk1

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Conservative

33

32

32

37

30

34

33

39

33

33

31

31

30

31

32

Liberal

37

36

33

24

37

35

33

28

32

35

36

37

32

30

29

NDP

15

24

22

27

25

24

25

21

23

23

23

22

29

30

30

Green

13

7

13

11

8

7

9

12

12

9

10

10

9

9

9

Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Those planning to vote

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Not likely (1-3)

81

87

85

80

78

84

41

Somewhat likely (4)

6

5

4

8

8

4

17

Likely (5-7)

13

9

11

11

14

12

42

Tracking Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention

End of Week

Week 4

Week 5

BASE: Those planning to vote

Wk 2

Wk 3

29

30

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Conservative

11

11

9

8

8

9

9

9

8

8

8

8

9

Liberal

16

12

14

15

13

12

12

11

11

12

11

10

11

NDP

17

14

18

17

15

11

12

13

16

14

14

12

11

Green

19

18

16

13

15

19

24

23

19

17

17

17

14

Bloc Québécois

16

14

18

14

13

10

11

10

12

13

13

12

12

Undecided

43

42

46

43

44

48

50

53

50

47

43

41

42

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Second Choice

Q. Which Party would be your second choice?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Those planning to vote

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Conservative

9

0

15

15

16

6

3

Liberal

18

20

0

29

27

30

8

NDP

18

19

30

0

33

13

8

Green

17

10

27

29

0

17

14

Bloc Québécois

5

4

3

6

9

0

6

No second choice

33

47

26

21

15

34

60

Tracking Second Choice

End of Week

Week 5

BASE: Those planning to vote

Wk 2

Wk 3

Oct. 9

Conservative

10

10

9

Liberal

16

16

18

NDP

20

19

18

Green

15

14

17

Bloc Québécois

5

6

5

No second choice

35

35

33

Note – To view daily tracking numbers from throughout the campaign, please download PDF version of this release (link located at the bottom of page)

Likely Winner (A)

Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next elections, which party do you think will win?

BASE: Those planning to vote

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

Conservative

65

64

82

66

72

46

54

Liberal

23

23

12

18

22

32

34

NDP

7

10

5

14

4

6

10

Green

2

3

1

2

3

2

2

Bloc Québécois

3

0

0

0

0

14

0

Likely Winner (B)

Q. Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next elections, which party do you think will win?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Those planning to vote

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Conservative

65

96

48

49

53

37

55

Liberal

23

3

48

25

23

34

24

NDP

7

0

2

22

10

3

15

Green

2

1

1

1

11

0

4

Bloc Québécois

3

0

1

3

2

26

3

Perceived Importance of this Election (A)

Q. Compared to the previous election, how important is the outcome of this election to the future of the country?

BASE: Those planning to vote

CANADA

BC

AB

SK/MB

ON

QC

ATL

Not as important

14

17

16

11

11

16

12

Just as important

8

7

6

3

8

12

12

More important

78

76

78

85

81

72

76

Perceived Importance of this Election (B)

Q. Compared to the previous election, how important is the outcome of this election to the future of the country?

BASE: Those planning to vote

CANADA

Gender

Age

Income

M

F

<25

25-44

45-64

65

<$40K

$40-80K

$80K

Not as important

14

17

10

16

14

12

14

20

10

13

Just as important

8

9

8

6

9

8

9

7

9

9

More important

78

74

82

78

77

80

76

73

81

79

Perceived Importance of this Election (C)

Q. Compared to the previous election, how important is the outcome of this election to the future of the country?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Those planning to vote

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Not as important

14

12

12

10

19

18

17

Just as important

8

6

10

7

13

7

13

More important

78

82

78

83

69

76

70

Methodology:

EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a rolling average of surveys collected October 7, 8 and 9.

In total, 3378 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is +/- 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here to download PDF: election-08-daily-tracking-oct91

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