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SEAT PROJECTION – OCTOBER 10, 2008

Tories Once Again Knocking on Door of Majority

[OTTAWA – October 10, 2008] For several days, the EKOS tracking poll has been showing the gap between the Conservatives and the second-place Liberals growing, after a short-lived Liberal surge that came immediately after the debates.

Our EKOS tracking poll covering Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday is the most current available, because it contains data from just three days, not four as other tracking polls have done in recent days. It also has larger sample sizes.

Today, as we have done each Friday of the campaign, we are releasing a seat projection based on our most recent numbers. It shows the Conservatives only a few seats short of a majority.

This is not a prediction. Seat projection models can be very sensitive to small shifts in the regional distribution of support. In this case, we have not made any adjustments for sub-regional factors, such as Danny Williams’ campaign against the federal Tories in Newfoundland, for example, which may be hidden inside regional aggregates. Similarly we have not adjusted for incumbency and other local factors.

We have not taken into account the fact that the Conservatives are stronger among demographic groups that have a higher propensity to vote, that their voters are more likely to say that they are “absolutely certain” to vote and that this is an important election. Of course, no poll can capture the relative strengths of the parties’ organizations in getting out the vote, which historically and according to media reports would probably favour the Conservatives, BQ and NDP.

In sum, we think if anything this projection may somewhat understate Conservative strength.

However, because there has been so much discussion of strategic voting in this election, we think it is useful to illustrate in general terms what kind of Parliament might be produced by the percentages of support we have seen in recent days.

Today’s Seat Projection

CPC

Liberal

NDP

BQ

Green

Other

TOTAL

CANADA

152

60

39

57

0

0

308

Atlantic

14

11

7

0

0

0

32

Quebec

5

12

1

57

0

0

75

Ontario

57

32

17

0

0

0

106

Manitoba

10

0

4

0

0

0

14

Saskatchewan

12

1

1

0

0

0

14

Alberta

28

0

0

0

0

0

28

British Columbia

25

3

8

0

0

0

36

Yukon / Territories

1

1

1

0

0

0

3

A note on our methodology:

This seat projection is based on the results of a recent poll conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

Taking our three-day rolling sample (October 7-9) of 2934 decided voters from across Canada, we have run them through a model that takes into account both the special arithmetic of our first-past-the-post system, and the parties’ historical patterns of support.

Click here to download PDF: election-08-seat-projection-8-_oct-10_

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