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SNAPSHOT OF METROPOLITAN CANADA – OCTOBER 13, 2008

CONSERVATIVES STILL STRUGGLE IN CITIES

[OTTAWA – October 13, 2008] – The Conservatives may well win the election tomorrow, but they are likely to win again without much support in the most economically and socially dynamic places in Canada: the big cities.

“If, as seems most likely, the Conservatives win a second minority government, an additional challenge they will face is that they seem out of step with Canada’s biggest cities – the places that connect this trading nation par excellence to the rest of the world,” said Frank Graves, President of EKOS Research Associates.

In the last election, the Tories were shut out of Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal. In this election they might do marginally better than that, but their weakness in the big cities remains painfully clear.

Although Ontario as a whole has witnessed a see-saw battle between the Liberals and Conservatives, in Toronto there has never really been a contest. In our latest roll-up of results from Toronto, the Liberals have a huge lead over the other parties: 41% to just 21% for the Conservatives and 23% for the NDP.

Where the battle is truly joined between the Liberals and Conservatives is in the suburban area that surrounds Toronto proper.

Similarly, in Montreal, the closer you get to the centre of the city, the less likely the Tories are to be viable. In Montreal proper, the Bloc is ahead, with the Liberals not too far behind, followed by the NDP. The Conservatives trail a weak fourth – not too far ahead of the Greens.

The Conservatives’ prospects are only modestly better in the suburban ring around Montreal. You need to get well clear of the metropolis before they get competitive.

The Conservatives’ best big-city prospects are in the Vancouver-Burnaby area, where they are in a three-way race with the Liberals and New Democrats, though seemingly the third of three in recent days. They do show themselves much, much more strongly in the suburban communities outside this central area.

“After the last election, the Conservatives had to poach an MP from the Liberals (David Emerson) and appoint a minister to the Senate (Michael Fortier) to acquire at least some big city representation in cabinet,” said Graves. “Stephen Harper might well find himself in a similar situation again this time – particularly in Toronto and Montreal.”

Detailed Tables:

Roll-UP of Federal Vote Intention (Oct. 6-12)

Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?

BASE: Decided Voters

British Columbia

Ontario

Quebec

Van./
Bur.

Sub Urban

Rest of BC

Tor.

Sub Urban

Rest of ON

Mtl.

Rest of QC

n=

389

822

422

400

591

720

685

1027

Conservative

25

44

38

21

38

38

15

21

Liberal

31

22

18

41

36

29

28

17

NDP

33

20

25

23

13

20

15

12

Green

12

14

18

14

13

13

7

5

Bloc Québécois

35

45

Note – The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 6% of those living in British Columbia and Ontario and 7% in Quebec are undecided, and 2% in each of the aforementioned provinces say they will note vote.

Roll-Up of Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia (Oct. 6-12)

Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?

Overall

Sex

Age

Income

BASE: Decided Voters in British Columbia

M

F

<25

25-44

45-64

65+

<$40K

$40-80K

+$80K

Conservative

38

41

34

23

34

38

52

34

38

41

Liberal

23

23

24

23

23

24

21

21

21

27

NDP

24

23

26

29

25

25

20

28

26

20

Green

15

13

16

26

18

13

7

17

16

12

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia (Oct. 6-12)

October

BASE: Decided Voters in British Columbia

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Conservative

38

42

42

40

36

39

39

Liberal

20

20

19

19

24

24

24

NDP

26

25

26

25

23

22

22

Green

16

13

13

16

17

15

15

Roll-Up of Federal Vote Intention in Ontario (Oct. 6-12)

Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?

Overall

Sex

Age

Income

BASE: Decided Voters
in Ontario

M

F

<25

25-44

45-64

65+

<$40K

$40-80K

+$80K

Conservative

34

36

32

28

31

36

39

32

33

36

Liberal

34

36

33

26

33

36

39

27

34

40

NDP

18

15

21

25

21

16

13

25

20

12

Green

13

13

14

20

16

12

8

16

13

12

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario (Oct. 6-12)

October

BASE: Decided Voters in Ontario

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Conservative

33

35

36

37

35

35

34

Liberal

33

31

32

31

35

36

36

NDP

20

20

19

19

17

16

17

Green

15

14

13

13

13

13

13

Roll-Up of Federal Vote Intention in Quebec (Oct. 6-12)

Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?

Overall

Sex

Age

Income

BASE: Decided Voters in Quebec

M

F

<25

25-44

45-64

65+

<$40K

$40-80K

+$80K

Conservative

18

23

14

10

15

20

28

19

18

16

Liberal

21

21

22

16

19

20

31

21

19

27

NDP

13

13

14

22

13

13

10

12

16

11

Green

6

6

6

14

6

4

3

6

6

5

Bloc Québécois

41

37

44

37

47

43

28

42

40

40

Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec (Oct. 6-12)

October

BASE: Decided Voters in Quebec

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Conservative

17

17

17

18

20

20

24

Liberal

21

21

21

20

19

19

17

NDP

15

15

15

14

14

13

12

Green

5

7

6

8

6

6

5

Bloc Québécois

42

40

41

41

40

43

41

Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention (Oct. 6-12)

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election on October 14?

BASE: Decided Voters

British Columbia

Ontario

Quebec

Van.

Ex/Sub Urban

Rest of BC

Tor.

Ex/Sub Urban

Rest of ON

Mtl.

Rest of QC

Not likely (1-3)

83

79

83

82

80

81

78

77

Somewhat likely (4)

6

7

6

5

6

7

5

6

Likely (5-7)

11

13

11

13

14

12

17

18

Second Choice (Oct. 6-12)

Q. Which party would be your second choice?

BASE: Decided Voters

British Columbia

Ontario

Quebec

Van. / Bur.

Sub Urban

Rest of BC

Tor.

Sub Urban

Rest of ON

Mtl.

Rest of QC

Conservative

7

8

8

10

12

6

6

7

Liberal

21

20

17

23

21

15

21

17

NDP

21

19

16

18

17

24

19

17

Green

25

20

21

20

18

18

12

12

Bloc Québécois

12

11

No second choice

21

31

36

26

30

37

29

36

Methodology:

This poll was conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

The field dates for the survey results presented in this analysis are October 6 to October 12, 2008. The margin of error associated with each of the regions discussed in this release is provided in the following table. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided further (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as sex, age, income).

British Columbia

Ontario

Quebec

BASE: Decided Voters

Van. / Bur.

Sub-Urban

Rest of BC

Tor.

Sub-Urban

Rest of ON

Mtl.

Rest of QC

Sample size

389

822

422

400

591

720

685

1027

Margin of error (+/-)

4.9

3.4

4.8

4.9

4.0

3.6

3.7

3.1

All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here to download PDF:  election-08-metro-oct13

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