SNAPSHOT OF METROPOLITAN CANADA - OCTOBER 13, 2008
CONSERVATIVES STILL STRUGGLE IN CITIES
[OTTAWA – October 13, 2008] – The Conservatives may well win the election tomorrow, but they are likely to win again without much support in the most economically and socially dynamic places in Canada: the big cities.
“If, as seems most likely, the Conservatives win a second minority government, an additional challenge they will face is that they seem out of step with Canada’s biggest cities – the places that connect this trading nation par excellence to the rest of the world,” said Frank Graves, President of EKOS Research Associates.
In the last election, the Tories were shut out of Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal. In this election they might do marginally better than that, but their weakness in the big cities remains painfully clear.
Although Ontario as a whole has witnessed a see-saw battle between the Liberals and Conservatives, in Toronto there has never really been a contest. In our latest roll-up of results from Toronto, the Liberals have a huge lead over the other parties: 41% to just 21% for the Conservatives and 23% for the NDP.
Where the battle is truly joined between the Liberals and Conservatives is in the suburban area that surrounds Toronto proper.
Similarly, in Montreal, the closer you get to the centre of the city, the less likely the Tories are to be viable. In Montreal proper, the Bloc is ahead, with the Liberals not too far behind, followed by the NDP. The Conservatives trail a weak fourth – not too far ahead of the Greens.
The Conservatives’ prospects are only modestly better in the suburban ring around Montreal. You need to get well clear of the metropolis before they get competitive.
The Conservatives’ best big-city prospects are in the Vancouver-Burnaby area, where they are in a three-way race with the Liberals and New Democrats, though seemingly the third of three in recent days. They do show themselves much, much more strongly in the suburban communities outside this central area.
“After the last election, the Conservatives had to poach an MP from the Liberals (David Emerson) and appoint a minister to the Senate (Michael Fortier) to acquire at least some big city representation in cabinet,” said Graves. “Stephen Harper might well find himself in a similar situation again this time – particularly in Toronto and Montreal.”
Detailed Tables:
Roll-UP of Federal Vote Intention (Oct. 6-12)
Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
British Columbia |
Ontario |
Quebec |
|||||
|
|
Van./ |
Sub Urban |
Rest of BC |
Tor. |
Sub Urban |
Rest of ON |
Mtl. |
Rest of QC |
|
n= |
389 |
822 |
422 |
400 |
591 |
720 |
685 |
1027 |
|
Conservative |
25 |
44 |
38 |
21 |
38 |
38 |
15 |
21 |
|
Liberal |
31 |
22 |
18 |
41 |
36 |
29 |
28 |
17 |
|
NDP |
33 |
20 |
25 |
23 |
13 |
20 |
15 |
12 |
|
Green |
12 |
14 |
18 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
7 |
5 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
35 |
45 |
Note - The data presented in this chart is based on decided voters only. Our survey also finds that 6% of those living in British Columbia and Ontario and 7% in Quebec are undecided, and 2% in each of the aforementioned provinces say they will note vote.
Roll-Up of Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia (Oct. 6-12)
Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?
|
|
Overall |
Sex |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
|
||||||||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters in British Columbia |
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
+$80K |
|
|
Conservative |
38 |
41 |
34 |
23 |
34 |
38 |
52 |
34 |
38 |
41 |
|
Liberal |
23 |
23 |
24 |
23 |
23 |
24 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
27 |
|
NDP |
24 |
23 |
26 |
29 |
25 |
25 |
20 |
28 |
26 |
20 |
|
Green |
15 |
13 |
16 |
26 |
18 |
13 |
7 |
17 |
16 |
12 |
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in British Columbia (Oct. 6-12)
|
|
October |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters in British Columbia |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
38 |
42 |
42 |
40 |
36 |
39 |
39 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
20 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
26 |
25 |
26 |
25 |
23 |
22 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
16 |
13 |
13 |
16 |
17 |
15 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roll-Up of Federal Vote Intention in Ontario (Oct. 6-12)
Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?
|
|
Overall |
Sex |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
|
||||||||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
+$80K |
|
|
Conservative |
34 |
36 |
32 |
28 |
31 |
36 |
39 |
32 |
33 |
36 |
|
Liberal |
34 |
36 |
33 |
26 |
33 |
36 |
39 |
27 |
34 |
40 |
|
NDP |
18 |
15 |
21 |
25 |
21 |
16 |
13 |
25 |
20 |
12 |
|
Green |
13 |
13 |
14 |
20 |
16 |
12 |
8 |
16 |
13 |
12 |
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Ontario (Oct. 6-12)
|
|
October |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters in Ontario |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
33 |
35 |
36 |
37 |
35 |
35 |
34 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
33 |
31 |
32 |
31 |
35 |
36 |
36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
20 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
15 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roll-Up of Federal Vote Intention in Quebec (Oct. 6-12)
Q. Which Party do you intend to vote for on October 14th?
|
|
Overall |
Sex |
Age |
Income |
||||||
|
|
||||||||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters in Quebec |
M |
F |
<25 |
25-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
<$40K |
$40-80K |
+$80K |
|
|
Conservative |
18 |
23 |
14 |
10 |
15 |
20 |
28 |
19 |
18 |
16 |
|
Liberal |
21 |
21 |
22 |
16 |
19 |
20 |
31 |
21 |
19 |
27 |
|
NDP |
13 |
13 |
14 |
22 |
13 |
13 |
10 |
12 |
16 |
11 |
|
Green |
6 |
6 |
6 |
14 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
41 |
37 |
44 |
37 |
47 |
43 |
28 |
42 |
40 |
40 |
Tracking Federal Vote Intention in Quebec (Oct. 6-12)
|
|
October |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters in Quebec |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conservative |
17 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
20 |
20 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
21 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDP |
15 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Green |
5 |
7 |
6 |
8 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bloc Québécois |
42 |
40 |
41 |
41 |
40 |
43 |
41 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Likelihood of Changing Vote Intention (Oct. 6-12)
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind between now and the federal election on October 14?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
British Columbia |
Ontario |
Quebec |
|||||
|
|
Van. |
Ex/Sub Urban |
Rest of BC |
Tor. |
Ex/Sub Urban |
Rest of ON |
Mtl. |
Rest of QC |
|
Not likely (1-3) |
83 |
79 |
83 |
82 |
80 |
81 |
78 |
77 |
|
Somewhat likely (4) |
6 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
5 |
6 |
|
Likely (5-7) |
11 |
13 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
12 |
17 |
18 |
Second Choice (Oct. 6-12)
Q. Which party would be your second choice?
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
British Columbia |
Ontario |
Quebec |
|||||
|
|
Van. / Bur. |
Sub Urban |
Rest of BC |
Tor. |
Sub Urban |
Rest of ON |
Mtl. |
Rest of QC |
|
Conservative |
7 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
12 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
|
Liberal |
21 |
20 |
17 |
23 |
21 |
15 |
21 |
17 |
|
NDP |
21 |
19 |
16 |
18 |
17 |
24 |
19 |
17 |
|
Green |
25 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
18 |
18 |
12 |
12 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
12 |
11 |
|
No second choice |
21 |
31 |
36 |
26 |
30 |
37 |
29 |
36 |
Methodology:
This poll was conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.
The field dates for the survey results presented in this analysis are October 6 to October 12, 2008. The margin of error associated with each of the regions discussed in this release is provided in the following table. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided further (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as sex, age, income).
|
|
British Columbia |
Ontario |
Quebec |
|||||
|
BASE: Decided Voters |
Van. / Bur. |
Sub-Urban |
Rest of BC |
Tor. |
Sub-Urban |
Rest of ON |
Mtl. |
Rest of QC |
|
Sample size |
389 |
822 |
422 |
400 |
591 |
720 |
685 |
1027 |
|
Margin of error (+/-) |
4.9 |
3.4 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
3.1 |
All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Click here to download PDF: election-08-metro-oct13
