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VOTER COMMITTMENT – OCTOBER 13, 2008

Certainty of Voting in Tuesday’s Election

[OTTAWA – October 13, 2008] – In order to gauge voter commitment, we have been asking Canadians how certain they are to get out and vote on October 14th.

Based on our most recent figures, most Canadians (84%) say they are “absolutely certain” that they will vote in Tuesday’s election, and an additional 8% say they are “quite certain” they will do this. Despite the fact that only 2 in 3 eligible voters cast a ballot in the last federal election, only 8% of our respondents say they are “not sure” if they will vote.

Although certainty to vote is elevated across most groups, as the following table shows, CPC and BQ voters are the most committed, with 9 in 10 saying they are “absolutely certain” to vote. LPC voters are not far behind (87% “absolutely certain”). NDP and Green voters, on the other hand, are the least committed (respectively, 76 and 81% “absolutely certain” to vote).

Detailed Tables:

Certainty of Voting in Tuesday’s Election By Vote Intention

Q. How certain are you to vote in the federal election this coming Tuesday, October 14th?

Current Vote Intention

BASE: Canadians

CANADA

CPC

LPC

NDP

GP

BQ

Undecided

Absolutely certain

84

90

87

76

81

90

66

Quite certain

8

5

7

11

11

5

8

Not sure

8

5

5

13

8

5

26

Methodology:

EKOS’ daily tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator.

Each weekday evening, a nationally representative sample of Canadians, 18 years of age and older is surveyed. The daily tracking number presented in this report is based on a rolling average of surveys collected October 10, 11 and 12.

In total, 2714 Canadians responded to the survey over this period. The margin of error associated with this rolling sample is /- 1.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, income). All the data have been statistically weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

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