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DECISIVE OPPOSITION TO CANADA’S AFGHANISTAN MISSION - July 16, 2009

LIBERALS AND TORIES STUCK IN DEAD HEAT, WATCHED BY A MAINLY INDIFFERENT PUBLIC

[Ottawa – July 16, 2009] – Canadians have turned decisively against Canada’s participation in the military mission in Afghanistan, according to the latest weekly poll conducted by EKOS Research Associates exclusively for release on CBC.ca.

“We have been polling on this question since the mission began,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “The public outlook on Afghanistan has undergone a steady and radical transformation. From overwhelming public support at the outset of the mission we have seen an inexorable reversal to overwhelming public opposition. Opposition has grown from a trivial mid-teen level to nearly well over 50 percent. Support has collapsed from more than 2 in 3 at the outset to just 1 in 3 now. And none of this is an ephemeral, excited response to news headlines; it has been a steady and gradual shift in public judgment of the mission.”

In Quebec, where support for the mission has never been strong, it is now only barely above single digits. In this poll, opponents outnumber supporters in every region except Manitoba/Saskatchewan, where the sample size is too small to be conclusive.

“Nonetheless, there is little reason to suspect that the Afghanistan mission is an especially heavy load on the Conservative government, since it has already agreed with the opposition Liberals to bring the mission to a close in 2011 and the debate has largely fallen out of the media discourse,” said Graves.

Party support remains in a dead heat between the two major parties, with neither able to break out and take a clear lead. This week, the Conservatives are narrowly ahead nationally, though they continue to trail somewhat in the largest battleground province, Ontario, and are well behind the Liberals and Bloc Québécois in Quebec.

“Somewhat surprisingly, given the state of the economy, Canadians seem relatively content with the direction of the country and of the government right now,” said Graves. “Equally significant, the current crop of parties and leaders leave them cold.”

Only in Quebec does a majority now say that the government is going in the wrong direction. Moreover, among almost every other demographic group – young and old, those with higher education and those without, men and women – a plurality now says that the government is going in the right direction. Even among Liberal supporters, the percentage saying that the government is headed in the wrong direction only narrowly outnumbers those who say it is going in the right direction.

“It is not that Canadians lack significant differences of interests or values,” Graves said. “Not at all. However, they do seem to feel that none of the parties provides them with a conduit to express those differences with enthusiasm and conviction. Until Canadians start seeing themselves reflected more vibrantly in their political leadership, we are likely to continue to see an essentially frozen political landscape, capturing the attention of older, well-educated, economically-secure males, while the rest of the public looks on indifferently.”

Click here for complete survey results: 0779-full-report-_july-16_

2 Responses to “DECISIVE OPPOSITION TO CANADA’S AFGHANISTAN MISSION - July 16, 2009”

  1. 1
    Stephen:

    As an active supporter of the peace movement who has long opposed this war, I am heartened to see Canadians changing their views: this is not the kind of role our country should be playing in the world.

  2. 2
    119@398$999:

    Why not do an actual poll and not just a average one that you use your mathematical formula to average out what you think Canada as a whole thinks.
    This is not what the Canadian people think about the war in Afghanistan not real Canadians anyway.
    Just Cowards that don’t want to serve there country.

About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including PROBIT© and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

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Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact:

Frank Graves
President
EKOS Research Associates
t: 613.235-7215
fgraves@ekos.com