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TORIES RETAIN SMALL EDGE – August 27, 2009

LIBERALS HEAD TO NATIONAL CAUCUS WITH GRIP ON ONTARIO SLIPPING

[Ottawa – August 27, 2009] – At their national caucus in Sudbury next week the federal Liberals may be considering whether to take down the minority Conservative government when Parliament resumes in the fall. But this week’s national sample of vote intention by EKOS Research, for exclusive release by the CBC, suggests they may want to think twice.

The Liberals are now in a statistical tie with the Conservatives in Ontario – their traditional heartland, the province they need to dominate again in order to win through to government.

“All summer the race between the two major parties has been very close – at times within the margin of error,” said EKOS Executive Director, Paul Adams. “In recent weeks, however, the Conservatives have eked out a small numerical lead on the national numbers, based in part on an improvement in their fortunes in Ontario. Ontario was the key to the Liberals’ success in the Chrétien years and it is the key to the party’s future as well. The Liberals now appear to have given up the advantage they held in Ontario through most of the spring and early summer.”

The Liberals have also given up a larger lead to the BQ in Quebec than they usually have in recent months.

Typically, Canadians – and the media – pay relatively little attention to politics during the summer months, which may account for the relative stability of public opinion since Parliament rose for its summer recess in June.

“None of the parties has had a breakout summer,” said Adams. “However, as the media has begun to rev up for the political season, many commentators have focused criticism on the Liberal leader, Michael Ignatieff. Because he is relatively less well known to the public than the Prime Minister, he may be more vulnerable to negative commentary.”

Click here for complete survey results: 0779-full-report-_august-27_1

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