NDP SAG ON SUPPORT FOR GOVERNMENT?

[Ottawa – September 24, 2009] – The federal Conservatives, who were locked in a dead heat with the Liberals just three weeks ago, have edged steadily into a comfortable lead nationally, according to the weekly EKOS poll conducted for the CBC. The Conservatives now appear to be competitive even among some groups, such as young voters and Toronto voters, once largely beyond their reach.

The Liberals meanwhile have lost their secure hold on Ontario, and are increasingly the party of the university educated.

The New Democrats appear to be in a slump following their decision to back the government – at least for the moment – and avoid an election in the very near term.

More ominous for the opposition parties is the startling difference in the composition of the most committed voters. Right now, Tory supporters outnumber the other parties in the “fully committed” voter segment by a margin of more than three to one.

“What this means,” said EKOS President Frank Graves, “is that the significant advantage that Stephen Harper’s Conservatives now have in public opinion may actually understate their potential strength in an election.”

EKOS has created a “commitment index” to distinguish voters who are the most committed to their parties and thus most likely to show up and vote for their choice. The index combines intentions, attitudes, and past behaviour.

The index suggests that commitment rises with education and age. It varies regionally: for example, Albertans and Ontarians are most committed, while residents of British Columbia are the least. Men are more committed than women.

Of the metropolitan centres, Ottawa, the hub of government, has the most committed voters (perhaps reflecting the greatest level of vested interest).

But in sum, the commitment index suggests the Conservatives are even stronger at the moment that they superficially appear.

“If we restrict our analysis to the most committed portion of the electorate – about 60%, and not far off the actual voter turn out in 2008 – it suggests that it will be quite difficult to dislodge the Tories. Moreover, their aspiration for a majority may be tantalizingly close,” said Graves.

“Fewer than six in ten Canadians eligible to vote turned out in the last election, which had a considerable impact on the outcome,” he said. “Because the Conservatives had a more committed following, they came very close to achieving their quest for a majority government. In contrast, lack of enthusiasm contributed both to the scale of the Liberals’ historic defeat and to Green Party’s failure to realize its apparent potential.”

“Although the Liberals seem to inspire both more support and more enthusiasm under Michael Ignatieff than they did under Stéphane Dion, they still lag the Conservatives,” he said. “Meanwhile, the NDP and the Greens appear to be in real trouble because of the tepidness of their support. There is a real possibility that these parties will have trouble getting their supporters out to the polls, or will lose them to the larger parties.”

It is also notable is that many of those most staunchly opposed to national and federal direction do not seem to be channelling their disagreement into political activity, but rather decide to opt-out. “It is quite interesting that comfort with the country and government has alloyed intense motivation amongst Tory voters, while dissatisfaction has produced apathy and disengagement among others,” notes Graves.

Click here to download the full report: 0779-full-report-september-24

Posted on September 24th, 2009 under National Results • RSS 2.0 feed