FRANK GRAVES LOOKS AT THIS WEEK’S CBC VIEWER-SUGGESTED QUESTION: GUN CONTROL - November 19, 2009
IN ASSOCIATION WITH CBC NEWS NETWORK’S POWER AND POLITICS, EKOS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES IS CONDUCTING SURVEYS USING QUESTIONS AND TOPICS SUBMITTED BY VIEWERS. EKOS PRESIDENT, FRANK GRAVES LOOKS AT THE RESULTS OF THIS WEEK’S SURVEY.
[Ottawa – November 19, 2009] – This week’s special question looks at the issue of gun control in general, and the long-gun registry in particular. The results are highly revealing of a deeply fractured public on an emotionally charged issue. The research also shows that opposition to the long-gun registry may not be a good indicator of broader attitudes to gun control. In fact many people who oppose the registry support much more restrictive forms of gun control.
The conventional wisdom has been that the majority of Canadians support the long-gun registry but that it is highly unpopular in rural areas, particularly in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta.
As our recent survey results show, the Conservatives may have known something we didn’t because this is no longer the case. A very slim plurality of 38% wants to abolish the long-gun registry. Only 31% of respondents want to keep it. Support for retention was much higher amongst the university-educated, non-CPC voters, and those living in Ontario and Quebec.
An unusually high number of respondents did not indicate an opinion, which may suggest ambivalence on the issue.
So there is no overwhelming mandate from the public to eliminate the registry, but there is even less enthusiasm for retaining it.
Another question we asked shows a paradoxical result: a much higher percentage of Canadians support the much tougher measure of banning gun ownership outright. In fact a very slim overall majority of 54% favoured no guns whatsoever except for law enforcement.
Men, people living in Alberta, the Prairies and Atlantic Canada, and Conservative supporters are all adamantly opposed to a ban on guns. However, large majorities of women, Quebeckers, Ontarians, Liberal and Bloc Québécois supporters support this much tougher measure. So clearly the reactions to the gun registry appear to be a mixture of attitudes to guns themselves with attitudes about the efficacy and costs of the registry.
Drawing from an interesting suggestion from a viewer, we also tested what on the surface appears to be a fairly enlightened solution to the urban/rural split. We found that a clear majority of Canadians (64%) agree that guns should be strictly banned in urban areas; only 27% disagree. In no demographic group did a majority oppose the idea of restricting guns in the cities.
Finally we compared the results of our survey with an online poll conducted by the CBC. Both explore the issue of abolishing the gun registry, but our poll was based on random probability sampling whereas the on line results were based on anyone who “opted into” the online poll.
The comparison is quite interesting and should be noted because of the proliferation of online polls which don’t use probability sampling. In the online poll, a huge majority wanted to abolish the long-gun registry. Furthermore, the very large undecided group apparent in the probability sample virtually disappeared in the online poll as everyone who volunteered their views had a clear opinion (mostly in favour of abolition).
So what should we take from this? Despite the much larger numbers in the online opt-in poll, the 74% overall support for abolishing is unquestionably unreliable. Clearly the online poll disproportionately attracted the supporters of abolition, who were much more likely to volunteer their views.
This example is important because it underlines the continued importance of random sampling to accurately reflect the overall public. In an era replete with a proliferation of instant polls from Poll Daddy and Survey Monkey the public are bombarded with a plethora of conflicting “polls” which reflect nothing more than the views of those who answer them. This is all great fun but when the issues are of significance to the public interest it’s important to disentangle entertainment and science.
Click here to download the full report: full-report-november-19
November 26th, 2009 at 5:44 pm
I’d bet that the results would have been different if the question had been “Knowing that the registry has never helped solve a crime, should we keep it?”
January 28th, 2010 at 2:23 pm
I agree. The whole issue has been clouded by a variety of factors, mainly who controls the media or who can be heard. For example if you purport to be an objective, and properly run survey tool, why did you even refer to a totally trivial invalid CBC on-line poll The gun that started all this was illegal. Almost all guns used in crime are already illegal, and the trend seems to be to using other means of killing. If there were one iota of proof that the long gun registry of guns which have heretofore been legal has reduced crime, I would be for it. There is not to date, and no seems to care. As an aside I had a shotgun. I carry it about and rarely use it. I spend daily a lot of time in the woods. I got my possession cerificate when required, and waited to get my licence for the particular gun. While doing so I was told by the media gun control would be repealed. I waited a while, then got a letter saying in effect ‘you have not registered your gun yet, therefore you possession certificate is now invalid and you will have to take a hunter training course.’ This after hunting for 65 years. In az long gun registry is not needed, will do no good, and it is incredibly badly managed. I suggest giving the money to fund a division of the police to deal with smuggling, traffic and acquisition of illegal guns. (My gun is the bottom of the ocean). If that does not help, well do you really, and honestly think asking these criminal to register their illegal weapons is going to work.