H1N1 FEARS “EXAGGERATED” SAY MANY CANADIANS - November 12, 2009
LIBS TEN PERCENTAGE POINTS BEHIND TORIES
[Ottawa – November 12, 2009] – More than half of Canadians say that the high level of public concern over H1N1 is “exaggerated”. Just one in ten thinks the level of public concern is “understated”.
Fourteen per cent of Canadians reported having already received the H1N1 inoculation in this survey. “This is actually a very large number – about 5 million when you extrapolate the findings to the broader population,” said EKOS President Frank Graves.
Unlike many other things we look at in these surveys, the distribution of those who have received the shot is pretty even across the regions of Canada. “Despite stories of queue jumping, the only demographic correlate of note is age, where seniors are less likely to have received the shot, which is actually consistent with risk targeting. Otherwise, one’s language, residence, ethnicity, and social class do not seem to be significantly correlated with whether or not one has received the shot. Universality seems to have survived in this instance,” noted Graves.
About a third of those who hadn’t received the shot said they were “absolutely certain” to get it, while another 17% said they were “quite certain”. Only about a quarter of those who have not had the shot said they were certain not to get it. Somewhat troubling is that there appears to be a reverse connection with risk: younger Canadians – who are in a higher risk category – are significantly less likely to get the shot whereas seniors – who are less at risk of complications from H1N1 – are almost all going to get it. There are also some curious connections to political orientation, with Green Party supporters and B.C. residents more averse to the shot, while Quebeckers and Bloc supporters are highly committed.
“Canadians are somewhat anxious, but not panicked, for the most part,” said Graves. “While support for the federal government’s handling of the pandemic has slipped somewhat since July, before the current flu season, Canadians are now almost equally divided on the government’s handling of the disease. From our past experience tracking public response to other health crises such as SARS, avian flu, and West Nile virus, it appears that the public are not unusually alarmed. More importantly from the government’s perspective is that, unless things seriously unravel from here, the current levels of approval will probably evolve into quite favourable approval in the long term.”
There were significant regional variations in the level of support for the federal government’s work on the issue: Quebeckers were much more positive than other Canadians.
Canadians were somewhat more positive generally about the role played by provincial and municipal governments in handling the crisis.
Although the Liberals might like to think that the H1N1 pandemic will turn into Stephen Harper’s “hurricane Katrina,” as a recent email from the party’s president put it, there is no sign that this is happening, and even less sign that the issue is benefitting the Liberals.
The Conservatives have edged down somewhat from their October peak, in the aftermath of Liberal election threats, but they are still about where they were in the 2008 election. The Liberals, meanwhile, after having enjoyed a relatively stronger spring and summer, are back down where they were in the 2008 election – their worst-ever in history.
“The parties now appear to be fairly ‘locked in’ to support levels consistent with the last election. There does not appear to be anything in the handling of the H1N1 crisis which is like to disrupt that pattern. What must be most worrisome for the Liberals is that while the Conservatives have slipped somewhat in the last month, none of that shift has accrued to them,” said Graves. “If anyone has been the beneficiary, it may be the NDP, which has recovered somewhat from the political crisis of the early fall, and is now back near the top of its normal range.”
Click here to download the full report:full-report-november-12
