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HUGE SAMPLE GIVES DEEPER PICTURE OF TORY LEAD – November 26, 2009

[Ottawa – Nov 26, 2009] – The extremely robust sample in EKOS’ latest survey of Canadians’ voting intentions (5,759 cases), conducted for exclusive release by the CBC, gives a deeper sounding of the Tories’ current ten-point lead over the second place Liberals.

Looking at segments of the Canadian electorate, the bedrock for the Tories is the group of Canadians over the age of 45.  The Conservatives do very well among baby-boomers. Their support among seniors is literally twice as high as among young people. Among Canadians under 45, the Conservatives fare less well, but no single party dominates these younger groups.

Indeed, the Conservatives would win a massive majority if only seniors could vote, but the Green Party would be in a four-way hunt for government if only those 18-25 could vote.

Historically, older Canadians have been more likely to vote, so it may be that the Conservatives are slightly closer to majority territory than the topline numbers suggest.

“The Conservatives’ strength is very solid,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “They lead in most of the regions of the country, including Ontario, have a massive advantage in the three Prairie Provinces, and are enjoying a modest rebound in Quebec.”

“However, they are still shy of a majority,” he said.

The Liberals may be experiencing a modest rebound among two groups they once dominated but among whom they yielded the lead to the Conservatives earlier this fall – the university-educated and New Canadians. However, this recovery is at best extremely tentative and fragile.

One possible harbinger of change in the political landscape is a definite though not dramatic shift in Canadians’ attitudes to the direction of the government. For a prolonged period, Canadians who had a positive view of the direction of the federal government outnumbered those who took a negative view. However, this has now changed: in the last week, those taking a negative view of the direction of the government equaled those taking a positive view.

Click here for the full report: full_report_november_26

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