COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES

[Ottawa – December 17, 2009] – Many have commented on the dismal overall rates of voter participation in Canada (the anaemic rates declined to historical nadir in 2008). This lack of participation was particularly pronounced amongst the under-45 population; “Generation X” had weak voting rates, and the younger “Generation Y” stayed home in droves. This was in sharp contrast to the significant spike up in voting rates amongst young Americans in the last Presidential election (a crucial factor which propelled Obama to victory). In Canada, there was and is no current Obama analogue, and younger voters continue to sit on the sidelines.

Our survey for CBC’s Power and Politics this week looked at two separate questions designed to see how Canadians felt about some possible remedies to this poverty of engagement at the federal level. Both questions yield remarkable and helpful guidance from Canadians. The clear message from the public is to design a secure internet channel for allowing Canadians to vote on line and we will make dramatic progress on this issue. More importantly, the progress will be most dramatic in those groups where the problem is most severe.

Very close to 50% of all Canadians say they would be “very likely” to vote online if this option was offered. This is a dramatic number, but it is even more impressive in under-45 Canada (where more than half say they would be “very likely” to use this option). Even discounting half of the claimed impacts on voting behaviour, we could double this cohort’s rate of voting in the next election. Canadians increasingly pay their bills, file their taxes, order their entertainment, and shop and bank online, and from the public’s point of view, the internet would be the most obvious and immediate way to deal with low voter turnout, particularly amongst young voters. Notably, enthusiasm for online voting does not vary by party support, so there is no evidence that it would immediately alter the outcome of the next election.

Another question forced Canadians to choose between a brief menu of the most obvious remedies for low voter turnout. These contrasted coercive methods (i.e., making it illegal not to vote) with persuasive methods (i.e., an information and social marketing approach). We also included the internet option and reform of the electoral system based on a move to proportional representation. It is worth noting that there are supporters for all of these approaches and, we recognize that, unlike the question, they are not mutually exclusive choices. But there is a clear hierarchy of preference and it does link in interesting ways to the background characteristics, political interests, and preferences of respondents. The results are quite revealing and helpful.

The clear winner (by a modest but significant margin) was once again the option of online voting. This choice was the overwhelming favourite of younger voters and, in particular, the no-longer-quite-so-young “Gen X’ers”.

In second place was the idea of proportional representation where parties would receive MPs in proportion to their share of popular vote. Undoubtedly, this was not a fair test of the overall merits of the current first past the post system, but it is interesting to note that it fared better among more educated and older voters who probably understand the implications better. Further evidence of the potential link to political fluency is the fact it scored better in Ontario and British Columbia, the two jurisdictions which recently had public plebiscites on electoral reform. It also fared more poorly in Quebec (which would most likely receive fewer seats under this model).

Perhaps not surprising, the notion of proportional representation did much better amongst NDP and Green Party supporters – both parties which would most certainly do considerably better under this system. We believe that part of the well-documented swoon in Green Party support from election polls to the ballot booth is the de-motivating effects of a realistic awareness of the basic inequity of the current first past the post system. In the final stages of the last federal campaign, roughly equal numbers of Canadians supported the Green Party and the Bloc Québécois. One party got nearly 50 seats the other got none. For many Canadians this disparity would be seen as lacking basic fairness, and one that likely contributes to the softness of Green Party voter turnout.

Finally, it is interesting to note that there isn’t that much of a gap between the final two choices which capture the coercion-information continuum. Despite the obvious practical virtue of solving this problem by dragooning all voters to the ballot booth, this approach barely beats out the social marketing approach, and trailed the internet and electoral reform approaches.

All in all, some interesting and practical advice from the Canadian public on how to solve the problem of low voter turnout.

Posted on December 18th, 2009 under Commentary by Frank Graves • RSS 2.0 feed