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RELATIVELY PLACID POLITICAL LANDSCAPE – December 10, 2009

SOME EVIDENCE OF GENTLE EROSION IN CPC FORTUNES

[Ottawa – December 10, 2009] – The political landscape continues to show a gentle but progressive decline in Conservative fortunes. They have now clearly moved out of majority territory, having seen their support descend from the low 40s to the mid 30s. This places them below their election result of last year.

Notably, declining CPC fortunes have not resulted in greater support for the Liberals, but the margin between the two parties is now much smaller than it was just a couple of months ago.

More evidence of the declining fortunes of the CPC is found in the fact that we are now seeing virtually dead even splits as to whether the federal government is moving in the right or wrong direction. This is a significant shift from a long period where the Conservatives had enjoyed a modest but significant lead on this indicator.

The numbers on government direction look particularly troubling in Quebec, where a clear majority are now offside with federal direction, and results also suggest that British Columbia may be following that trend. This is reflected in a decline in CPC fortunes in Quebec, and a significant tightening of the B.C. race into a 3 way battle with the CPC leading. It is noteworthy that despite these difficulties, the CPC continues to hold a significant lead in the crucial Ontario arena.

A final noteworthy item on vote intention is the position of the Green Party. At 11.3% support nationally, they are only 5% behind the NDP and may have some wind in their sails from the Copenhagen Conference. Many question the validity of these numbers given the lower support they have historically received in the voting booth, however, this criticism fails to distinguish between the opinions of eligible voters and the roughly 60% of actual voters. If the GP can crack the ceiling where they actually have a chance of producing MPs (and if younger voters decide to vote more than their anaemic rates in the last election), then the Greens may be poised for a modest breakthrough. It if worth noting that their numbers are not that different from those that the Reform and Alliance parties used to receive.

Click here for the full report: full_report_december_10

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