LIBERALS/TORIES IN HORSERACE ONCE AGAIN - January 14, 2010
PROROGATION KICKS KNEES FROM UNDERNEATH GOVERNMENT
[Ottawa – January 14, 2010] - In a stunning turnaround for the ruling Conservatives, who were comfortably in majority territory just three months ago, the Tories now find themselves struggling to stay ahead of the opposition Liberals.
“For those who have been speculating as to whether Canadians really care about the ‘obscure’ issue of prorogation the evidence is now incontrovertible,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “Canadians have noticed, they do care and this is having a very negative impact on Conservative fortunes.”
The 15-point lead the Conservatives enjoyed over the Liberals in mid-October has tumbled to just 1.6 percentage points. For the first time since last June a clear plurality of Canadians say that the government is going in the wrong direction. Outside of the shrinking CPC constituency there is a dramatic lean to seeing the federal government now moving in the wrong direction.
“Despite the shock to Conservatives, including the Prime Minister, who shrugged off the prorogation issue, there are some modest notes of comfort for the Tories in this poll,” said Graves. “First, the Liberals continue to be stuck in the sub-30% zone. They are well within reach of the Conservatives now, but the movements in public opinion seem to be driven more by repulsion to Conservative tactics than attraction to Mr. Ignatieff and the Liberal Party.”
Moreover, some of the erosion in support has come in the Tory fortress of the Alberta and Saskatchewan and may not have any effect in terms of seats. Also, the last few days of polling saw the CPC fortunes rebounding somewhat, suggesting that it may be difficult for the opposition to sustain public attention on the issue of prorogation.
Click here for the full report: full_report_january_14