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CONSERVATIVES RE-OPEN GAP OVER LIBERALS - February 25, 2010

LIBS STALL/TORIES RISE

[Ottawa – February 25, 2010] - After several weeks in which Canada’s two major parties have been neck-and-neck, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have opened up a three percentage point lead over the Liberals. The shift, though small, puts the Conservatives back in comfortable minority-government territory if an election were held.

“The Liberals rode the dissatisfaction with the government over Afghan detainees, Copenhagen and prorogation back into contention after what was for them a disastrous early fall,” said EKOS President Frank Graves. “However, they have not had been able to find the leadership or the message to build on that momentum. Meanwhile, the government, with the Haiti crisis and the
Olympics dominating the media, has managed to stay away from trouble in the public eye, and some of their traditional supporters are drifting back to them.”

Nationally, the Liberals have not slipped in support from their peak of recent weeks. However, the Conservatives have been making modest gains.

The Conservatives are now essentially tied with the Liberals in seat-rich Ontario. The Liberals are very competitive – slightly ahead in fact – among voters under 45 years of age. However, the Conservatives have a significant edge among older Canadians, a somewhat larger group.
The Liberals are ahead among the university educated and those born outside of Canada, but in most other demographic categories — including women, for example — the Tories are tied or leading.

This EKOS poll is one of a series with very robust sample sizes conducted for exclusive release by the CBC.

Click here for the full report: full_report_february_25

5 Responses to “CONSERVATIVES RE-OPEN GAP OVER LIBERALS - February 25, 2010”

  1. 1
    Gi Nam:

    I told you! With Iggy at the helm, there’s no future for the Liberals.

  2. 2
    bdm:

    This is well within the effective range of error given the expected Olympic “bounce”. What is remarkable in the poll is that the bounce is so small. What is more, it is evident that the “Conservatives” (Reform III) understand that this is so, hence the attack on George Grant’s descendant as “Russian” and “Count Iggy” just as they attacked Dion because his mother was French. Petty people the Harper Cons, aren’t they.

  3. 3
    bruno:

    The margin of error is +/- 1.8%. Thus the Libs and the Cons are in a statistical tie. You can’t statistically say that in the population as a whole the Cons are leading the Liberals. This is only true for the sample that was taken.

  4. 4
    Naveed:

    Yes you are right bdm, there is some hope for Ignatieff and the Liberals. Despite the Olympics dominating the TV screens and our ensuing patriotism, the Conservatives bounce is very small to date. It is to be expected that the prerogation issue and their other misdemenours have not been centre-front in people’s consciousness any more, and one would have expected a bigger bounce back from them.
    The three percent margin can easily be caught up by the Liberals once the politics comes back into the news.
    And yes you are so correct, Harper and his Cons are petty people. Unfortunately those petty tactics seem to work, judging by the past two elections.

  5. 5
    caz:

    That’s a tad rich given the Liberals wrote the book on “petty” and are adding to it daily.

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We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

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