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LIBERALS FALLING BACK – March 25, 2010

NO PARTY CAN CRACK THE 33-POINT GLASS CEILING

[Ottawa – March 25, 2010] –  For the 12th consecutive poll this year, we see no party able to summon up more than the support of 33% of a stingy electorate. “This is the fly in the ointment for what is otherwise a pretty positive poll for Stephen Harper’s Conservatives,” said EKOS President Frank Graves.

Canadians are relatively happy with the overall direction of the country and satisfaction with the federal government direction continues to improve. This leads to the puzzling question of if Canada is up, why are the Conservatives so low?

But there is even less to cheer the hearts of Liberal supporters as their virtual tie early in the year has morphed into a clear and stable Conservative lead (albeit a fairly narrow one). In fact, the Conservatives have erased most of the gender gap and are doing very well in Alberta and the Prairies. Things are still neck and neck in Ontario, though, and things continue to look grim in Quebec for the Conservatives. But the crucial boomer vote is returning to the fold.

An interesting side bar is that for possibly the first time the Green Party vote is (insignificantly) ahead with under 25 voters. Indeed, the Liberals must be looking covetously at a pretty stable GP vote of over 10% which may be a key factor in their inability to rise above the fairly humble 30-point mark. For GP supporters, there is small comfort in knowing that their share of the national vote exceeds the Bloc Quebecois vote yet they are more likely to get no seats versus the 40 to 50 ticketed to the BQ.

“The big questions now,” said Graves “are can the Conservatives crack the increasingly stubborn 33 barrier and can the Liberals stop the bleeding before they descend back to Dion era support levels?”

The Liberals are hosting a policy conference in Montreal this weekend in preparation for an election that is widely expected this year or early next year.

This poll, which features a robust sample size, was conducted by EKOS for exclusive release by the CBC.

Click here for the full report: full_report_march_25

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