About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

LIBERALS WILTING IN SUMMER HEAT – July 8, 2010

LIBERALS AT LOWEST POINT SINCE IGNATIEFF ASSUMED LEADERSHIP

[Ottawa – July 8, 2010] – Given cessation of Parliament, the polling numbers are surprisingly active.

As Parliament closed, the Liberal Party were close to the margin of error behind the Conservatives. This week, they have found themselves nearly 11 points down and exploring a basement level support for their party.

The Conservative are the only clear beneficiaries of this Liberal swoon and now would have a legitimate minority government in an election were held today.

The Liberals should be particularly alarmed about newfound Conservative strength in Ontario, where they now have a sizeable lead. Even in supposedly security-wary Toronto, the Conservatives enjoy an unprecedented lead.
The bad news for the Liberals continues with signs of Conservative life in Quebec. The key demographic propelling the Conservatives appears to be seniors, where nearly half now support them.

So why this abrupt shift in Conservative fortunes? In the absence of Parliament, we could speculate that it is merely a random survey error. But the pattern is far too pronounced and we can dismiss this hypothesis.

Perhaps the absence of the critical lens that Parliament provides to the public explains buoyed Conservative fortunes. Another factor is the continuing recovery of the economy and the juxtaposition of Canadian strength compared to the economic and fiscal woes of recent visitors from the G8.

A final interesting hypothesis is that Stephen Harper may now be assuming a symbolic as well as political role. It is interesting to note that in the absence of the representative head of state (Michaëlle Jean), it was Harper who greeted the Queen, rubbed shoulders with Obama and European Leaders, and basked in the positive glow surrounding Canada Day.

So just as the Olympic hockey victory lifted Harper’s fortunes, the cumulative effect of these events seems to have exerted a similarly positive effect. If indeed Harper is now becoming a proxy for national pride, this may make the challenge for Ignatieff even more formidable (as confidence in national direction continues to be strong).

One puzzling note to dampen an otherwise positive poll for the Conservatives is that there may be some conditionality to their newfound strength as confidence in the direction of the federal government continues to be tepid at best.

Click here for the full report: full_report_july_8

9 comments to LIBERALS WILTING IN SUMMER HEAT – July 8, 2010

  • wolf

    How can this be good for the Conservatives?They are still more than 4% below their percentage at the last election. In other words there is more opposition to them now than at the last election!

  • JR

    What people really want to know now is whether voters would support a coaliton…

  • ron

    lets hope we can finally get a majority government and clear direction and policies

  • slgam

    I fully expect, in the absence of any surprises, that lead to widen markedly once an election is called, and the focus switches to the real ballot questions for swing voters – leadership and the economy. On both fronts, Harper will shine in comparison to the opposition, and when the possibility of another theoried opposition coalition is dangled in front of Canadians if the result is another minority parliament, I believe strongly they will give Harper the majority government he seeks, and perhaps by a good margin, in order to prevent that from ever happening. Peace, order, and good government are the achievements Harper brings to the dance. The opposition – no leader, no cogent policies, no vision, and four years of cheap posturing and desperate opportunism. It will be a clear, and I suspect, easy choice.

  • Ron

    Harper glowed during the G20 and G8, he impressed every one with his leadership abilities. He renewed the relationship we hold so dear with the Queen. He is a statesman and rapidly becoming the best Prime Minister Canada ever had.
    Harper has no skeletons in his closet and is squeeky clean.
    We love him!

  • Marg

    Why is it that when a Conservative Leader seeks a Majority Government, that is a bad thing, however when a Liberal Leader Seeks the very same thing, that is a good thing? This does not make sense. Of course ALL leaders from ALL Parties would like to seek a majority. And as far as I am concerned, Stephen Harper has done more for this country than the Liberal’s did in their 13 years as a majority government. Canadians need to start looking beyond what the media is telling them because as we all know very well, the media loves to manipulate Canadians. I think it’s time that Stephen Harper be given a majority government.

  • Jon

    The Conservatives are governing in the centre and the other parties are off in no where land – – bassically there is no reason anyone would want to change where we’re at now, except the most partisan of Canadians. Good for Harper in providing solid government in extremely difficult worldwide economic times. The elites don’t like him because he isn’t one of them. But by looking at the poll numbers, Canadians don’t really care what they think.

  • I fully expect, in the absence of any surprises, that lead to widen markedly once an election is called, and the focus switches to the real ballot questions for swing voters – leadership and the economy. On both fronts, Harper will shine in comparison to the opposition, and when the possibility of another theoried opposition coalition is dangled in front of Canadians if the result is another minority parliament, I believe strongly they will give Harper the majority government he seeks, and perhaps by a good margin, in order to prevent that from ever happening. Peace, order, and good government are the achievements Harper brings to the dance. The opposition – no leader, no cogent policies, no vision, and four years of cheap posturing and desperate opportunism. It will be a clear, and I suspect, easy choice.
    +1

  • Mike Green

    The results of the poll showing the Conservatives doing significantly better in Toronto than in the rest of Ontario are odd, to say the least. Particularly when the spending of $1 billion for security and the fake lake for the G20 was so unpopular across the political spectrum in Toronto. This would have been fresh in the public’s mind at the time they were polled.

    It would be helpful if Ekos ran two or three poll aggregations, as well.