ELECTION-WARY CANADIANS SHOWING GREATER RECEPTIVITY

[Ottawa – September 30, 2010] – Although Canadians have always said they are allergic to elections, that resistance is clearly down from this time last year, particularly among youth and those not supporting the Conservatives.

In terms of preferred election outcome, a large plurality of Canadians would prefer some form of majority government, a figure that has remained stable over the last year. Unfortunately, it does not look like they are going to get one any time soon. Canadians are divided over what type of majority government they want. There is a slight lean towards some form… [More...]

Posted on September 30th, 2010 under National Results. Comments: None

CONSERVATIVES RETAIN SMALL BUT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT LEAD

[Ottawa – September 30, 2010] – Over the last two weeks, the Conservatives and the Liberals have seen a slight rise in their fortunes and both front runners have now opened a wider gap on the other parties. The Conservatives now stand at 33.1 points (up from 32.4) and the Liberals are at 29.9 (up from 28.9). These gains appear to have come at the expense of the NDP, who appear to be in danger of being squeezed out of an increasingly tight two-way race.

The gap between university and college graduates (and, to a… [More...]

Posted on September 30th, 2010 under National Results. Comments: None

COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES

[Ottawa – September 27, 2010] – It is amazing to see the interpretive gyrations that the punditocracy have displayed in “analysing” the gun registry battle. Perhaps the only thing more amazing is how this relatively trivial issue has been a central political focus of the entire country for some time. Such salience suggests that there is the issue itself and much deeper values, symbolism and vested interest clashing under the surface level question of whether we should dismantle this relatively small and unobtrusive program. Research suggests that the actual costs and intrusiveness of the registration… [More...]

Posted on September 27th, 2010 under Commentary by Frank Graves. Comments: 4

[Ottawa – September 16, 2010] – Over the last two weeks, we have seen a very stable pattern with the Tories enjoying a scant but statistically significant lead. The numbers are precariously balanced for the parties such that even very modest shifts can profoundly alter the likely outcome of the next election. Perhaps the most notable feature is how elusive a single party majority (or even a stable minority) has become. Stephen Harper came to power with a minority government that the voters thought was the right antidote to the regime fatigue they felt with what had become near chronic… [More...]

Posted on September 16th, 2010 under Commentary by Frank Graves. Comments: None

[OTTAWA – September 16, 2010] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Below are the seat projections based on both last week and the previous week. It is remarkable how consistent they are.

What is most notable about these projections is what a dog’s breakfast this hypothetical parliament would be in terms of the legitimacy and stability of a parliament if the current government were to find… [More...]

Posted on September 16th, 2010 under Seat Projection. Comments: 1

[Ottawa – September 16, 2010] – After what could easily be described as an unpredictable summer, Conservative and Liberal support appears to have stabilized. At 32 points, the Conservatives have held a small but statistically significant lead for two consecutive weeks. In the meantime, the Liberals have remained steady at 29 points. This period of inactivity is somewhat reminiscent of last spring where both parties remained anchored below the 33-point mark.

While the Conservatives and Liberals may be frozen in amber, there appears to be somewhat more volatility among NDP and Green supporters. In the last week of polling, the NDP… [More...]

Posted on September 16th, 2010 under National Results. Comments: None

[Ottawa – September 2, 2010] – For the second time in a month, the Conservatives and the Liberals have moved into a statistical tie. While Michael Ignatieff’s travelling redemption show may have brought him and his party back from life support to fully fledged contenders for the next government, the demographic patterns suggest that the new parity is as much a product of Tory largesse to their competitors as any action on part of the Liberals. Indeed, in a frankly incomprehensible manner, Stephen Harper may very well have resuscitated the Leader of the Opposition with his decision to cancel the… [More...]

Posted on September 2nd, 2010 under Commentary by Frank Graves. Comments: None