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EKOS SEAT PROJECTION AND ANALYSIS – September 16, 2010

[OTTAWA – September 16, 2010] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Below are the seat projections based on both last week and the previous week. It is remarkable how consistent they are.

What is most notable about these projections is what a dog’s breakfast this hypothetical parliament would be in terms of the legitimacy and stability of a parliament if the current government were to find itself reduced to this level. The NDP and the Liberals combined would have more seats than the Conservatives, but would fall well short of a majority. This leaves the Bloc as the crucial power broker.

The Conservatives have certainly picked up their performance in Quebec (largely at the expense of the Bloc) and one has to wonder if the talk of an NHL franchise has helped.

This slight but stable improvement for the Conservatives over the last month moves them out of the range where they would be at risk of losing power. It also, however, opens up the possibility of an even less stable minority than the fractious parliament we are currently experiencing.

The final irony is that at the very time when Canadians are showing real fatigue for minority parliaments, their overall party preferences are placing the majority governments of yore, that they now seem to yearn for once again, into the realm of the highly implausible. It will be interesting to see how this new cul-de-sac gets resolved. It appears that the era of stable majority governments has ended. Like Australia and the UK, we seem to have entered into a new period where single parties can not command enough support to rule. That could change, but all of the hard evidence from the past several months suggests otherwise.

Click here for the full report: seat_projection_september_16

1 comment to EKOS SEAT PROJECTION AND ANALYSIS – September 16, 2010

  • EXCELLENT NEWS THAT HARPER HAS INCREASED LEAD IN POLLS, HARD TO BELIEVE BUT IT SEEMS CANADIANS THINK WE ARE ON THE RIGHT PATH.
    LIBERAL LEADER GETTING BETTER AND MUCH MORE TRUSTWORTHY THAN HARPER. WITH A BETTER PLAN FOR CANADIAN FUTURE. WE NEED AND WANT AN ELECTION AS SOON AS POSSIBLE AND LET THE CHIPS FALL AS THEY MAY.MAY CANADIANS RECIEVE BETTER THAN THE LAST FIVE YEARS. THANK YOU