About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

CONSERVATIVES CONTINUE TO ENJOY SMALL LEAD – October 28, 2010

DRAMATIC DECLINE IN OUTLOOK ON COUNTRY AND GOVERNMENT

[Ottawa – October 28, 2010] – Similar to the last reporting period, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by a comfortable six-point margin (33.9% to 27.8%). What is unusual, however, is the week to week volatility seen over the two-week data collection period. In the first week, the two parties were in a statistical tie. The Conservative Party’s better performance in the second week was largely a product of an upswing in Ontario.

Also interesting to note is that the fault lines in education and place of birth that emerged over… [More...]

EKOS ACCURATELY PREDICTS ROB FORD’S VICTORY – October 26, 2010

[Toronto – October 26, 2010] As other polls and pundits were calling the race for Toronto’s new mayor “too close to call,” EKOS correctly predicted a strong win for Rob Ford. Over the last week of the race, EKOS’ nightly polling showed Ford with a widening lead over his nearest rival. Our final three day roll up was nearly identical to the final election result.

So why this clearly flawed sense of a tightly deadlocked race? The other polls were off for different reasons. First, Ford surged in the last few days of his campaign and this late trend… [More...]

ADDENDUM TO OCT 22ND POLL: FORD POISED TO WIN – October 24, 2010

[Ottawa – October 24, 2010] – Further to our release on October 22nd, we extended our polling for three days to see if the race had changed in the final stages. While the final three days of polling provides too small a sample (n=275) to treat this as a reliable stand alone poll, it is more than adequate to test the hypothesis that Rob Ford continues to possess a significant lead.

Recall that in our last release, Mr. Ford had an eight point lead. Some speculated that because polling was conducted over an eight-day period (we do not poll… [More...]

ADVANTAGE TO FORD IN STILL TIGHT TORONTO MAYORALTY RACE – October 22, 2010

[Ottawa – October 22, 2010] – Based on a randomly dialled sample of 500 Torontonian voters, Rob Ford enjoys a significant eight point advantage over George Smitherman (43.9 to 35.6) in the closing stretch of what has been a fascinating mayoralty campaign in Toronto. While not decisive enough to declare Mr. Ford a certain winner, he is considerably more likely to emerge successfully over Mr. Smitherman on Monday.

This claim is not only based on the quite significant (but not insurmountable) lead he now enjoys, but also from analysing the underlying anatomy of voter support. While George Smitherman enjoys… [More...]

CONSERVATIVES WIDEN THEIR MODEST LEAD IN A PLACID POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT – October 14, 2010

LARGE 2-WEEK SAMPLE ALLOWS FOR DETAILED ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANATOMY

[Ottawa – October 14, 2010] – The Conservative Party has managed to widen its lead in the final week of polling to a near seven-point advantage over the moribund Liberals. While still a close race, the recent movements favour the Conservatives. In the first week of the polling period, their lead was a slenderer four points but the pattern is clearly one of the Conservatives returning to a more comfortable lead. The other notable poll finding is that the NDP have recovered to more comfortable 16-point territory… [More...]