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CONSERVATIVES WIDEN THEIR MODEST LEAD IN A PLACID POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT – October 14, 2010

LARGE 2-WEEK SAMPLE ALLOWS FOR DETAILED ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC ANATOMY

[Ottawa – October 14, 2010] – The Conservative Party has managed to widen its lead in the final week of polling to a near seven-point advantage over the moribund Liberals. While still a close race, the recent movements favour the Conservatives. In the first week of the polling period, their lead was a slenderer four points but the pattern is clearly one of the Conservatives returning to a more comfortable lead. The other notable poll finding is that the NDP have recovered to more comfortable 16-point territory after a brief flirtation with the low teens. These movements are not dramatic and follow the familiar ebb and flow of Conservative and Liberal fortunes over the past year.

Because of the relatively high stability in the electorate, we are using the entire two-week panel of nearly 5,000 cases to provide a very reliable portrait of the demographic and regional patterns of voter support at this time.

There is nothing very surprising in the regional patterns, but they do point to the key challenges for the parties as they ponder an election in the coming year. The Conservatives are extremely strong in their Alberta fortress and continue to exert dominance over the Manitoba and Saskatchewan electorate. British Columbia remains a tight three-way race with evidence of greater dissatisfaction with federal direction than the rest of the west. The Conservatives have, however, carved out a significant lead and the Liberals now trail by ten points. Ontario will be the key to success in the next election and the two main rivals for power are locked in a virtual stalemate at around 36 points each.

More and more, Quebec appears to be a major problem for the Conservative Party, as they have returned to the low teens following a brief boost after the Quebec arena hopes. The Liberals are the stronger federalist option in Quebec, but the Bloc is looking to be, by far, the most attractive voter option. The Atlantic is leaning Liberal, but both the Conservatives and the NDP have prospects there.

The demographic profile shows Conservative strength very much focussed among Anglophones, seniors, men, and those born in Canada. The Liberals, in contrast, do best with non-Canadian born and the university educated. Notably, the major shift of the university educated to the Liberals seems to have stopped and even reversed slightly. Women voters are underwhelmed with either of the two main parties. Finally, young voters are not showing any clear attraction to any of the parties although they do tend to be much more favourably inclined to the Green Party.

Click here for the full report: full_report_oct14

3 comments to CONSERVATIVES WIDEN THEIR MODEST LEAD IN A PLACID POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT – October 14, 2010

  • mare1

    Well, I guess after seeing the news the last few days the conservative government not looking so good i.e loosing a very important seat at the UN and not to mention the big defecit, scrapping the long form registry and the list keeps adding up. I would not be surprised if that little lead starting to reverse as we speak.

  • Brad Leavitt

    I would like to see a run-off second ballot between the top two candidates, if no candidate gets over 50% of the popular vote in the first ballot of a federal election.

    This way every winning candidate ends up getting over 50% of the final vote.

    I think a candidate needs over 50% of the vote to be legitimate in the eyes of the voters.

  • Peter K

    Getting snubbed by the U.N. is a badge of honor . Canadians don’t care about this , the long form census or the long gun registry .
    These are all issues being blown out of proportion by the Liberal left media which is completely out of touch with average Canadians .