About EKOS Politics

We launched this website in order to showcase our election research, and our suite of polling technologies including Probit and IVR. We will be updating this site frequently with new polls, analysis and insight into Canadian politics. EKOS's experience, knowledge and sophisticated research designs have contributed positively to many previous elections.

Other EKOS Products

In addition to current political analysis, EKOS also makes available to the public general research of interest, including research in evaluation, general public domain research, as well as a full history of EKOS press releases.

Media Inquires

For media inquires, please contact: Frank Graves President EKOS Research Associates t: 613.235-7215 [email protected]

THE GREAT CANADIAN POLL-OFF – March 29, 2011

INITIATING AN OPEN-SOURCE APPROACH TO POLLING

By Frank Graves with Jeff Smith

In the same spirit that we offer our public opinion polling, data tables, and methodology as a forum for discussion, this document is offered as a draft and we welcome comments from those interested.

[Ottawa – March 29, 2011] – Recent articles by Joan Bryden, and the responses they have generated, have launched a useful, if mildly overwrought debate about the merits of contemporary polling, with a particular focus on the perils of political polling. There are many useful caveats and lots of points of… [More...]

WHAT WAS THE OPPOSITION THINKING? – March 28, 2011

COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES

[Ottawa – March 28, 2011] – With the election campaign underway, some people are beginning to ask why any of the opposition parties (with the possible exception of the Bloc) would want to go into an election now, given where they were in the polls.

Maybe we should start with the obvious answer which even the most casual viewing of the question period would underline. These guys really and truly do not like each other. This parliament has been pretty dysfunctional, mired more in acrimonious sniping than nation building. There is very… [More...]

EKOS SEAT PROJECTION – March 28, 2011

[OTTAWA – March 28, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Click here for the full report: seat_projection_march_28

CONSERVATIVES RETAIN 7-POINT LEAD AS PARTIES ENTER ELECTION CAMPAIGN – March 25, 2011

[Ottawa – March 25, 2011] – In our final poll before the election campaign begins, the parties stand at, well, pretty much where they were three years ago. While the Liberals and Greens are poised to make some minor gains at the expense of the Conservatives and the NDP, there is little chance that we will see any major changes in the balance of power. At these numbers, the Conservatives will retain their status as a minority government and it is doubtful that the Liberals will gain enough seats to form a legitimate coalition with the NDP, let alone the… [More...]

BUDGET DAY STRATEGIC OPTIONS – March 14, 2011

COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES

[Ottawa – March 11, 2011] – If the government manages to avoid an earlier non confidence motion, the budget may well become the frame for an ensuing election, which appears increasingly unavoidable. Obviously, there is a strategic advantage in being able to actively frame your election strategy in the most visible act of Parliament – the federal budget. Add to this the fact that the Government enjoys higher confidence on managing the economy than the opposition and that there has been a modest but significant improvement in outlook on country and the economy… [More...]

EKOS SEAT PROJECTION AND ANALYSIS: DOES THIS LOOK FAMILIAR? – March 14, 2011

[OTTAWA – March 14, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Below are the seat projections polling data collected from February 24th to March 8th. As you can see from the above the mere 7-point lead belies a pretty formidable advantage for the Conservative Party. The key is Ontario where the Conservatives would see the rewards of a newfound but fairly stable lead… [More...]

TORIES ENJOY CLEAR BUT MODEST LEAD AS ELECTION LOOMS – March 10, 2011

UNDERSTANDING WHERE VOTERS ARE COMING AND GOING

[Ottawa – March 10, 2011] – Following a brief breakout a month ago, the voter landscape has settled into a pretty stable pattern with the Conservatives enjoying a clear but modest 7.4-point lead over the Liberals. This survey provides some interesting analysis on the question of how stable that lead might be and where voter movements have occurred, and where they are likely to occur in the future. Coupled with an analysis of the underlying demographic and regional patterns, this provides a revealing portrait of the pre-campaign electorate.

The survey data… [More...]

WILL IN-AND-OUT BE A REAL FACTOR? (and a note on why reasoned conjectures are okay) – March 3, 2011

COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS BY FRANK GRAVES

[Ottawa – March 3, 2011] – Given the recent public debate, let me begin with what I would have thought would be a pretty obvious caveat. When I comment as a pollster, my preferred role is to interpret direct empirical data. There are, however, numerous situations such as this question about the potential impacts of the in-and-out issue where the pollster is asked to provide insight without direct evidence. Notably, any attempts at prediction will lack direct evidence of the effects. Perhaps this is why Yogi Berra’s caveat about how “prediction is hard… [More...]