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EKOS Seat Projection – April 25, 2011

[OTTAWA – April 25, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Looking at these seat projections, the NDP and the Liberal Party combined would have a majority and 31 more seats than the Conservatives (as well as nearly 20 more points in popular vote). Indeed, It is hard to imagine how these totals would not produce the once unimaginable outcome of a Jack Layton led coalition government deposing Stephen Harper’s Conservative government.

Click here for the full report: seat_projection_april_25_2011

39 comments to EKOS Seat Projection – April 25, 2011

  • William

    Ok, now you’re just making shit up.

    NDP with 100 seats? Every other projection has them between 35 and 40.

    You’ve got to hook me up with your dealer. That is some prime dope you’re smoking.

  • Lionel Talbot

    Just looking at the seat projection in Quebec, it’s easy to see that your seat projection is way off. NDP are very very lucky if they get a dozen seats in Quebec (I should say very very very lucky !!!)

  • Stunning, but I get virtually the same thing using your polling numbers.

  • Hamish Paul Wilson

    I do not know, I want these numbers to be true, but 100 NDP seats? I guess we will see on May 2, but I will not get my hopes until I see the real vote numbers.

  • Mark

    The combined first and second choice numbers have put the NDP on top for a long time. It is possible that people have come to terms with the fact that Layton is a viable alternative to a Harper government and for Quebecers they may have a strong chance of having the majority of the leaders of the country hail from their province forthe first time in 20 years.

  • Shaun Lydon

    William and Lionel – either you both are Liberals who are in denial or are Conservatives that live in a bubble and needed a dictionary to get through the entire document.

  • Daniel

    This is the most stupid and unrealistic prediction I have seen. 4 Liberals elected in Quebec and 14 Bloc?? 53 NDP in a province which has elected at most 1 at any given time? Give me a break.

  • Napoleon Dermatas

    We are heading for big surprises,
    the outcome too liquid to speculate .
    The mainstream pollsters will fail as will the self defeated PC.
    Therefore this projection it is much closer to reality then all the rest combined. I am not a gambler at all but I will bet on that without hesitation.

  • Mervyn

    Cause to suspect your volatile polling and seat projection numbers, beyond the rapidly rising NDP “trend” in Quebec? Your last three reports (Apr. 18, 21, 25) show NDP support in Sask./Man. bouncing from 22.2% up to 34.7 and now back down to 20.5. So you projected zero NDP seats in Sask. (status quo) a week ago, then 5 of 13 seats last Thursday, and zero again today!

  • Napoleon Dermatas

    The record of Public Opinion Polls • National and by Province/
    http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/polls.php

  • mauser98

    you must have found 5 pounds of crack in your driveway this morning. and never exhaled.

  • loungesinger

    Is this the same Nick Nanos that is suing the Harper Governement?

  • Robert Hallam

    I,m a poll watcher and from my experience the numbers don’t lie, particularly after watching now President Obama, during the primaries against Hillary Clinton and then during the election run agains John McCain and Sarah Palin. They were exceptionally accurate even in very tight races. And here we have a poll with an extremely small margin of error (MOE). You can trust these numbers.

  • April 25 2011
    People are tired of the old school parties. They are self serving and do very little for working Canadians. The NDP has built there support on being positive and telling people what they will do to fix the problems of the country. The Conseatives and Liberals spend millions trying to tell the country how bad each one of them are and nothing on how they will fix ordinary peoples lives. Its time for a change and the voters of Canada are now looking for people to work together to make things better for working people ,just not for the banks, oil companies and big companies. ITS TIME FOR CHANGE!

  • Elaine

    @Lionel
    Where have you been in the last 2 weeks?! Living under a rock?

  • PJ

    Nanos most recent poll (ending April 24) is a little different —

    Conservative 39.2%
    Liberal 25.6%
    NDP 23.6%
    BQ 6.5%
    Green 3.6%

    — suggesting the surge in NDP support mostly comes from the other left-of-centre parties.

  • Naveed

    While this poll prediction by Ekos seems exaggerated as to the NDP resurgence, I’m not too sure it is inaccurate. I would lessen the NDP numbers from 100 seats to perhaps 70 seats, but would still hope that NDP plus Liberal combined are more than Harpers Conservatives, and that the deposing of Harper would be possible.

    The question is what happens on May 2nd, and if the NDP resurgence holds, and to what extent. Maybe Liberals might make a bit of a comeback.
    So long as the Conservatives don’t form a majority. That would be disaster.

  • @William: I know what you mean. The projections is quite something. But Quebec could be a factor. It would be great to see a scenario where Quebec brings in the NDP and has a positive voice in Canadian politics… not to mention make sure Harper is NOT a factor after the election. Their voice could speak through one of their homegrown sons and play a factor in the future of this country. How do you say ‘Go Quebec!’ en francais?

  • Crystal ball

    The more polls there are, the greater the chance one of them is way out. I think this is the one. The larger the pool, the wider the Bell curve stretches out, No? And the greater the chance that the average of all the pools is correct.

  • Robert Hallam

    If you go back a few updates, Ekos was the first polling agency to point out there was a consistent rising trend for the NDP due to the dissatisfaction with the status quo. So for Ekos, this is not news, but cofirmation that what they saw early on was for real.

  • I plugged Ekos’ numbers into my own seat prediction algorithm, and came up with:

    CPC 144
    NDP 108
    LPC 53
    BQ 3

    I make some assumptions which throw things off a bit, but past experience shows that I’m fairly close.

  • Nick D

    With these results the most likely outcome might be similar to the UK – a Liberal-Conservative coaltion government facing an NDP opposition.

  • sherry

    message from the green party…just an FYI:

    Brring, brring, “Do you plan to vote Conservative, Liberal, or NDP?”

    Notice anything missing from this question? That’s right—the Nanos, Ipsos Reid, and Angus Reid polling companies never include the Green Party as a voting choice. This explains why the Green Party numbers are so low in print and television news. Only the EKOS poll includes the Green Party as an option and we regularly show up at double the numbers in this poll.

    *there are more than even the 5 biggest parties that we should be asking people about. even if it’s just to let them know there ARE more than 4 or 5. :\

  • Terence Joy, BA

    The new Ekos poll shows the NDP winning possibly 100 seats “if” the surge in the polls continues for the NDP (and that’s a big “IF” BUT THIS TIME IT JUST MIGHT BE DIFFERENT).

    Why?

    1) Most of the seats the NDP would pick up would be in Quebec.

    The voters of Quebec are known for dumping old parties and voting en masse for a complete change. The NDP has never had more than 1 seat in Quebec but in my life I have seen the disappearance of Union Nationale (a right wing party that governed Quebec for many years); the demise of the Ralliement des créditistes; the rise of the Parti Quebecois and the Bloc Quebecois; the emergence of the new, federal Conservative party in Quebec a few years back, etc.

    I contend if the NDP can get the vote out on election day, it could pick up at least 10 to 20 seats in Quebec (and if the NDP keeps going up in the polls, the party could indeed pick up the most seats in Quebec; possibly as many as 50 seats as Ekos suggests.)

    2) The Ekos poll shows B.C. is another province where the NDP surge is strong and the party would pick up several seats (Again, only if the surge continues).

    3) The NDP has been in second place in the polls during previous federal elections and eventually ended up in third place in terms of the percentage of the vote (e.g. the Liberals scared potential NDP voters back into the Liberal camp in the last campaign) BUT the NDP has never been second in the polls so late in a campaign. At this point in time, voters are starting to firm up as to how they will vote.

    4) With the Liberals now falling further behind the NDP in the polls, their strategy of telling voters “a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Conservatives” is backfiring on them. Now, in most ridings it appears a vote for the Liberals or the Bloc is a vote for the Conservatives.

    5) There’s the “snowball effect”. Voters who want to vote “strategically” to keep a Conservative from being elected, currently look at the polls; see the Ekos poll that shows the NDP has pulled ahead of the Liberals, and switch from voting Liberal to NDP. This assists in increasing the NDP’s lead over the Liberals in next batch of polls. Of course these further NDP gains in the polls result in even more “strategic” voters switching from the Liberals to the NDP and another bump upwards in the polls for the NDP and a decrease for the Liberals and so on.

    If the NDP is still moving up in the polls as of this coming Thursday, I believe, on May 2nd, it will result in a minority Conservative government with the NDP as the Official Opposition; with the Liberals in third place and the Bloc being decimated down to a dozen or so seats in Quebec. (Again, I emphasize, this is based on the NDP surge in the polls becoming a reality on election day). As Ekos stated, “It is important to remember that these numbers are a reflection of what would happen if an election were held today (not necessarily May 2nd)”.

    But if the numbers do hold firm…..

    Harper has said, even if he only has a minority government, he would reintroduce the same budget that was voted down in the last session of parliament. Of course, if it’s the same budget, it will again be voted down in parliament.

    Before allowing another federal election, the Governor General would then ask the party with the second highest number of seats to form a government. If the above scenario holds true, this would be the NDP. Of course, since the NDP govt. wouldn’t have a majority, it would have to have the support of the Liberal party (or the Conservative party but that would be extremely unlikely) by means of a formal coalition or informal cooperation. No doubt, the Liberals would agree to such an arrangement since the alternative would be another general election and the voters would punish the Liberals for causing such an election.

    This would mean Canada would have a progressive NDP government requiring the support of the Liberal party.

    With such a government in power, Canadians would have saved our universal, public, non-profit (for the most part) healthcare system from the hands neo-conservatives such as Harper who is on record as stating he would prefer Canada to have a more privatized, for-profit, U.S. style healthcare system.

    Under such an NDP government (with Liberal support), the Canada Pension Plan would be improved; we would get our troops out of Afghanistan; not purchase $30 billion worth of F-35 jet fighters; having to use a Tim Horton Doughnut shop for hospital care; the banks and large corporations would pay closer to their proper share in taxes, etc.

    I genuinely hope, the above scenario does indeed become a reality!

  • David, Mississauga

    Your overall projection is similar to mine but your Quebec numbers are bizarre. NDP should be dialed back to about 40 if you want to be generous. The Liberals still have fortress Montreal so putting them down to 4 is not realistic. I see 10-12 still, with 8 for the Conservatives. I also think the NDP will do better in Saskatoba.

  • 50’s for Quebec is what I get with these numbers. The most recent Nanos numbers I only get a dozen or so seats in Quebec, and a a harper majority in Canada(70+ Cons from Ontario alone). 135-62-101-7, not including the provinces(or looking at possible Ind. wins) are my numbers with the most recent regional Ekos data.

  • (oops… I mean not including the territories)

  • Given the trajectory and the fact that the NDP vote has been rising with each passing pole, is it not possible by the time this is done we could see the NDP winning MORE seats than the Conservatives?

  • Marianne Richard

    100 seats for NDP? What a shock. It seems Canadians don’t what to pay 300 millions for more of the same. That’s the most cynical vote I was given to witness, let’s kick the hornet ness and see what comes out.

    @marke slipp
    It’ “Vas-y, Québec!” and you can add “Stephen Harper, dégage!” if the Tunisian don’t hold the copyright already.

  • sam

    even when i factor in your margin of error and the closest possible company’s survey and factor in their margin of error in your favour even then the poll numbers are off.
    it will be really interesting to see some of the next few poll surveys.

  • It is a stunning figure: 100 seats for the NDP but when I looked back over the polls to the beginning of the campaign, there has been an eerie stagnation with mild fluctuations for both the Conservative and the Liberals – reminding me of those moments before a storm where the cold and warm air masses seem to wait before they collide. Layton may be taking seats from the Liberals but who is taking seats from the Conservatives? If this poll’s stats hold true until election day, I’m guessing we’ll find out that there are conservatives also supporting Layton. Looking at the trend from 14% to 28% during the campaign period so far though, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jack beat out the Tories and became Prime Minister. He has a week, he has great momentum and he only needs 6% more support or less if the Tories go down and say the Greens take some of the Tory vote as well.

  • Marc-Antoine

    @ Crystal Ball…At first it may seem that this poll is the one that is out. But the first thing we gotta watch is the MOE, and this poll is the one with the shortest. This being said, it’s almost impossible that 2 straight polls falls outside the margin of error. We have to not underestimate the effect of the NDP surge in Quebec. I think people now just understand that electing the BQ is useless and causes the loss of government electing power of the province. I’m very happy that NDP are making huge gains here, and I will be glad to vote for them on May 2nd :)

  • Jamie Hogaboam

    Don’t under estimate these seat projections. Ekos poll here is a couple a days ahead of the other polling firms. They are the first poll showing results from April 22-25 polling. Ekos polling in 2008 was almost bang on with the final results with vote percentage. Ekos polling throughout this election has been acturact with other polling firms. Polling is difficult these days as it was generally done over the phonelines, but now older voters are easier to contact these days then younger voters. Remember Obama got a lot of support from first time and younger voters. Maybe Ekos has found a way to contact those voters here. Quebec voters may have relized that voting for the Bloc gives little voice in parliament. The NDP and Bloc are on the same side of the political spectrum. And I a veteran of running in two elections know that the lower classes are generally less likely to vote than the middle to upper class as high as 5 to 2. Maybe those voters that never votered before, or voted rarely in elections have been influence by what is going on in the middle east and fell that they too can make a difference in the political process in Canada.

  • Barry

    A primary key to the NDP projections includes (obviously) a massive shift in Quebec. What they naysayers are forgetting is how very capable the Quebec electorate is when it comes to making that kind of change. Not so long ago, Quebec was, to the liberals, what Alberta still is to the regressive conservatives …

  • Interesting, check out the polichat facebook poll, and you can cast your vote, see the facebook polls and voter reasoning. http://polichat.ca/polivote.php

  • Jim

    @william, @lionel talbot, @daniel and others.
    What you are all missing is that support is not average, but for each party is localized–except for the Bloc, until now. The Conservatives had 10 seats but they were mostly in the old Creditiste, Union Nationale (and PC leftovers) ridings. The fight there is Cons over BQ, or BQ over Cons, and the Liberals are nowhere.

    The Liberals only really have “Fortress Montreal” and ‘Fortress West Quebec” and both are a lot more like Swiss cheese than they used to be. Notice that the NDP won in Montreal in a long time Liberal stronghold. In Montreal metro region, the fight was L over BQ, or BQ over L, and the Conservatives are/were nowhere. Usually, the NDP was a plausible third. The BQ was only competing with one party at a time, not two.

    If the BQ vote collapses in favour of the NDP, there is enough natural 3rd place vote for the NDP already that like the BQ getting 49 of 75 seats with high 30’s support last time, the NDP could pick up a large chunk of over 50 seats with anything approaching 40%. By the way, both the Liberal AND the Conservative vote have been falling in Quebec, and I would guess myself that quite a few of the Montreal seats will fall to the NDP, both West Island and Laval/Central Island Liberals seats, and East end and South Shore BQ seats. I honestly think that the Liberals will hold on to some seats on the West Island, but very few. I also think the Conservatives have sealed their fate in Quebec, and in spite of impressive local results last time, I was estimating long before this that they would be lucky to get 5 seats overall.

    If, as the very latest polls are correct that the BQ is down to 5% (from 9.97% 2008 actual) then they are running at HALF their 2008 in Quebec 38% = 49/75 seats!!! Since the Liberals Quebec wide are about 14% and Conservatives about 16% with the Greens at 5%, that leaves the NDP over 40%

    As far as outliers, I tend to trust EKOS over the problematical Nanos polls (large margins of error–Nate Silver would have interesting things to say if he got interested in Canadian poll methodology) and the just plain off Ipsos Reid. My guestimate for NDP in Quebec is 55+, and think that the Liberals and Conservatives are spot on.

    I’ll leave the Prairies , Alberta and BC to others who understand those entrails a lot better, but I will add that there has been some interesting trending also happening in the Maritimes over time. although it isn’t a lot of change from the Ekos forecast, mine is a closer 3 way split than they have it.

  • It looks to me like there is more likely a coalition between the liberals and conservatives on the way.

  • gary

    My understanding of Quebec politics is that both the PQ and the BQ have both advocated for a more interventionist form of government, something that is more left-of-centre, to buttress the Quebec nationalism that both parties espouse. What is interesting about the apparent increase in support for the NDP in Quebec, and what may make it viable to expect it to result in an increase in seats on May 2, is that the recent polls may indicate that nationalism is less the determinative issue for Quebec voters in this election, but these same voters still support the strong social policies for which the BQ and PQ have traditionally been advocates. When these polls are viewed in relation to the emergence of new parties on a provincial level in Quebec, which have defined themselves in relation to social/fiscal policy, and not primarily by taking a position in the nationalist-federalist debate, these polls may be realistic, and reflect the decline of nationalism as the definining issue in Quebec politics.

    The other issue that comes to mind is the decline of the Liberal Party from a party defined by progressive values, in the ’60’s and ’70’s, into the pragmatice liberalism which emerged in the ’90’s. Conservatism, particularly since the rise of neo-conservatism in the ’80’s, has had an ability to appeal to supporters on a clearly visceral level. ‘Family Values’, the current ‘get tough on crime’ policies, Reagan’s ‘War on Drugs’, even the constant promise to lower taxes, or at least the threat that other parties are more likely to raise taxes, are all policies to which voters can react immediately, irrespective of whether the actual record of the policies themselves or the party which advocates them, or whether there is any reasonable likelihood that the policies advanced will have the social effects which are promised. The Liberal Party re-invented by Chretian after 1990 was extremely pragmatic. If a core set of values existed, they were values of the past, having already resulted in the civil rights victories and the social progress which occurred from the mid-50’s to the mid-70’s. Liberalism since Chretian has remained a pragmatic and centrist type of party, at its worst wishy washy in a purely Canadian sort of way, and has been unable to re-define itself in terms of core values that voters can respond to viscerally.

    The emergence of a new NDP, free of both its traditionally attachment to organized labour and its advocacy of governement ownership in the economy, may be the first major change in the Canadian political landscape since the rise of the new conservatism under Preston Manning. It may possibly indicate that there is a new, value based alternative to both the pragmatism of the Liberals, and the right of centre values of the Conservatives. We could be seeing the biggest change in Canadian politics since that guy Trudeau ran for office in the ’60’s.

  • Bob

    Perhaps the lesson to the liberals is if you are going to put forward a candidate who is close to the type of candidate that you would expect to run for the true left of centre party (the NDP) that you run the risk of the anti-Harper vote heading toward the left of centre candidate who is both known and has experience in Parliament (Layton).