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EKOS Seat Projection – April 26, 2011

[OTTAWA – April 26, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Seat forecast methodologies work pretty well, at least the ones we’ve been using. We’ve qualitatively come very close to the actual outcomes in the past four election — including an estimate of 125 seats for the Conservatives in 2006, which was exactly right. So the models work well. But we are into somewhat strange new territory to the degree the models rely on particularly historical provincial trends, there may be a little more noise than usual, but we would stress “a little”.

The estimates of individual regions are less reliable particularly in smaller jurisdictions, but the overall national numbers are probably pretty close to what would happen if there was an election based on those numbers.

Some have said, “How could the NDP at 28 points possible get 100 seats?” I would remind those critics that the Liberals received 78 seats with two points less support in the last election. Part of the scepticism is based on an understandable unfamiliarity with an NDP crowding 30 points nationally.

Click here for the full report: seat_projection_april_26_2011

21 comments to EKOS Seat Projection – April 26, 2011

  • Tim

    Do you do polling of individual ridings? If so, why not make this information public through the media and on your website so that Canadians can get an idea about how their local candidate is doing. I want to know how to vote in my riding based on how all the other candidates are doing. I feel like I’m going to have to walk into a polling booth blind without any understanding of how the competition in my riding is doing. I suspect that if you asked Canadians, most of them probably feel the same way that I do. Thank-you.

  • Peter

    Very interesting projections. I will vote Liberal because the NDP has no chance in my riding. Good for the NDP to keep the Tories from winning a majority. Time for the left to unite to keep the Conservatives from changing our country for the worse.

  • Daniel

    Thanks, this was needed/helpful following that Orange Crush bombshell.

  • Yvan Dubois

    I am quite skeptical that the NDP would go from 1 to 51 seats in Quebec with the Bloc going from 49 to 13. But well, it is always quite close in many places in Quebec.

  • David, Mississauga

    Don’t really understand why you have the NDP with only 8 in the Atlantic when they they’re polling first there.

  • Kurt Gruen

    I would really like to see the NDP govern this time. Times are hard, for a lot of people…working people, unemployed, seniors, students,etc.
    I also want to see our troops home from Afghanistan and bring Canada back to Peace Keeping, instead of War Mongering. So yes, Go Jack. Hope you win 😉

  • Frank

    51 seats for the NDP in Quebec makes no sense

  • chris

    @ Tim.

    I understand why you might want to know how the candidates are doing in your riding, so as to vote for or more likely against a particular candidate… but really this should not be how we vote.

    Granted our system is VERY OLD, and voting for who/what platform you may want the government to do may seem like throwing your vote away, but how else will the government know what Canadians want, if we vote like sheep or vote for the next best thing…

    Vote for what you want. otherwise you vote truly is a waist.

    We really really need a referendum to change this archaic ‘first past the post’ crap. 2011, not 1811.

  • George in Freddy

    Much as I love the idea that Jack is going to cause Ignatieff to get out of politics and he will likely be the next official opposition leader, It scares me to death to picture him supported by whatever Liberals are left forming any type pf Government. I like as much as the next guy to get anything I can without working for it, but as a country we just CANNOT afford the NDP or Liberals in charge at this time. It is truely time we start thinking clearly about what we will be leaving for future generations to pay for that only really helped this generation. There is no way we can continue to provide the existing pensions and programs we have let alone increasing them now for a generation who has not paid for them.

  • Tom, Ontario

    This really reminds me of the 1990 Ontario election when the NDP came out of nowhere with about a 12% swing in popular vote to form a majority government. My riding, a staunch Conservative stronghold went NDP, a fact that no one was calling even on election day. Since then the NDP has never polled more than 15%.

  • steve warnar

    If this poll is correct,then it certainly highlights the so very diverse nature of our concerns from region to region.
    That being the case it is even more essential that all MP’s from all parties begin to work together.
    Consider that every major city is Canada is a cooperative ( coalition of sorts).Whereby if one City Councilor in wants something in his/her area he/she would need a majority (51%) of the others to get it paased.Normally that means he/she would want to help others in their respective wards.
    It seems,in most City Council’s you just do not get the same level of meaness that prevails today in other levels of Government.

  • Nick

    The Conservative are gaining.

    I have Conservative voters in my family. They vote out of fear of an imagined nightmare scenario if ‘the socialists gain power.’ It seems to have to do with brand loyalty and fear for their retirement savings.

    Contrary to evidence of enormous deficits every time the (Progressive) Conservatives are in power, contempt of parliament, sneaky proroguing tactics, loss of prestige for Canada at the UN and Kyoto (etc.), and reckless tax cuts, they believe that the Honrable Mr. Harper is good for business and for Canada. They are believers. Evidence doesn’t seem to matter.

    Voting is not like ordering food at a restaurant. You are not choosing for yourself alone. You are choosing for everyone, and therefore you have a duty to choose wisely so as not to harm others.

    How can I convince my family to reconsider their brand loyalty? Suggestions?

  • Mary Chapman

    I agree with Peter that it is time for the left to unite. If we had only ONE party on the left instead of two, we would have a left-of-centre government. Clearly uniting the Reform and the old Conservative parties has worked for Harper; now it’s up to Jack and Michael to put ego aside and figure out how to work together, not as a temporary coalition but as a new, improved party!

  • Peter

    Nick:

    The fear thet business people feel about socialists is real, not imagined. You probably were not around for the NEP of Trudeau or Bob Rae in Ontario. Perhaps you don’t read the newspaper much as we have much to learn from Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Spain-the PIGS. All failed socialist states. Pehaps you night want to live in Venezuala or invest in Peru. One failing socialist state and one about to elect a socialist. Canada is consitently ranked the best country in the world to live because of our stable center left/center right politics and our embrace of capatalism.

    I bet your conservative voting family members are hard working loyal Canadians, probably owning their own businesses who contribute more to Canada than they take. I’ll bet they have never taken EI or other forms of government assistance. I’ll bet they would take the shirts off their backs to help their friends and family. I’ll bet they all know about the Somme, Vimy Ridge, Dieppe and Juno Beach. I’ll bet they all work more thatn 40 hours per week.

    I’ll also bet that you have taken EI, that you think that I owe you a living and that you don’t have the faintest idea where the Somme or Vimy Ridge are. I’ll bet you work less than 40 hours per week, if at all.

    Go ahead….vote socialist/ndp/bloc….ultimately it will only hurt those lowest on the social strata as the pie will be smaller and their will be less left for you. Your conservative voting family members are correct to be scared..you are just ignorant and probably lazy.

  • Tom, Ontario

    Peter….
    The countries that you cite are an interesting study.
    It was just recently before the global recession that our Canadian Finance Minister in the current government explained that they were trying to emulate the economic policies of Ireland….ironic where those policies led, wouldn’t you say?
    Portugal, Spain and Greece despite being democracies have very little democatic history and have only in the past generation been pulled out of developing country status.
    Venezuela and Peru are two countries that have a long history of troubled government of many stripes.
    More accurate comparisons to social democracy in a stable democracy such as Canada would be found in Scanadavia, Australia, New Zealand, Japan or recently in Chile and Brazil.
    How about here at home in Canada? Nova Scotia and Manitoba.

  • Naveed

    Nick the only solution I can say for your erstwhile family who is voting Conservative (despite the questionable activities of Stephen Harper) is that—you adopt an entirely new family!

  • Naveed

    Socialism (and the NDP in Canada) may be questionable to sustain the economy and deal in what is essentially a more right wing agenda world of banks and high finance reality.

    Harper and his Conservatives on the otherhand are a bunch of distrustful clique, who are anti-democratic, big corporation, military and war attuned, with privatized health care notions and do not look out for the welfare of the average canadian.

    This is why in effect the Liberal party in Canada is the most balanced, caring and proper, with favourable policies that help the average Canadian.

    Too bad most Canadians are not realizing this fact about the Liberals in this election.

  • Donna

    For info on riding by riding polls go to Project Democracy. This site supports strategic voting in order to defeat the Conservative.

  • Manitoba has had an NDP Government often and for alot of the last 40 years. Our economy is in very good shape. So was Saskatchewan’s before the tories were elected there. Imagine how up their upswing would be if they had had Ndp stewards at the helm

  • Robert Hallam

    I can just hear now all the whining from the Conservatives after 9:00 pm on Monday. They’ll be telling everyone who will listen that the Canadian public have been duped and have elected a Communist Governmnet.

    It’s time the Conservatives realized that Canada’s natural tendancy it to centre/left of centre government, or as it is normally know, Social Democracy, as it is out of necessity with almost all northern latitude countries (Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Germany, etc.). The Conservative element in Canada is, and always has been, a minority, about 35% to 40% of the electorate, and they do not represent the majority of Canadians.

    Canadians want Universal Sufferage, Universal Education, Universal Health Care, Old Age Pensions, Unemployment Insurance, Workers Compensation, Toll Free Bridges, Public Mass Transit, etc., etc., etc. If it were up to the Conservatives, we would have none of these. They would call for user-pay health care, private schools, and privatized Electrical Distribution System, etc., etc., etc.

  • Fred F

    To those who want to know how to vote strategically, go to http://www.projectdemocracy.ca/

    You can input your postal code and they will tell you, based on local polling, which candidate is most likely to defeat a Conservative. As well, they will tell you when you do not need to vote strategically because the Conservative candidate is not a contender in the riding.