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EKOS SEAT PROJECTIONS – April 15, 2011

[OTTAWA – April 15, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

Click here for the full report: seat_projection_april_15_2011

22 comments to EKOS SEAT PROJECTIONS – April 15, 2011

  • David

    I know you are probably sick of hearing from me, but I truly do not know how your numbers and seat projections can be so far below the average of ALL other of the five big polling firms. I believe you should re-look at your means of attaining numbers or at least further space out polling locations.

    I believe PM Harper is closer to a Majority than your numbers are showing. Though they are not in there yet, they are closer.

    Thanks
    David

  • Terry

    I agree with David. Looks like you are at least out by 20 seats. I’d be interested in knowing where you gather your data from.

  • Paul Sheppard

    David has a point,
    You’re polls aren’t showing me what I want to see, and so i’m skeptical. I’m sure that (insert name of party i’m supporting) is just steamrolling all of the other parties and it’s just ridiculous that your poll isn’t reflecting this. I’m absolutely sure that what I believe is much more accurate than the statistics you gather from surveying real Canadians.
    Please call me in the future for the real numbers.
    Signed,
    Wildly sarcastic Canadian voter living in the real world

  • Rob

    David, would you like to tell us what average you are referring to ? I’m not aware that any other polling firm has made projections yet.

  • Warren

    I believe yours is the most accurate of all the polls, hopefully Harper will receive fewer seats than last election and your poll shows that if two of the three main opposition parties disagree he will be in trouble in the House.

    I further hope that Canadians wake up to the stream of lies, deceit, obfuscation, and divisiveness used by the Cons and more people reject them for ethical and moral reasons.

    If the Cons fail to form the government than Harper can “go under the same bus” as he has thrown all well intentioned people who had the courage to stand up to him.

  • Joe C

    David: Actually, with the exception of Ipsos (which hasn’t published a new poll in 9 days), all of the polls are showing the Conservatives losing seats in this election. While the Conservatives are up in these other polls in popular vote terms, the fact that the Liberals are up even more means seat loss.

  • Norman Chateau

    David: More than 40% of the poll respondents in this and previous EKOS polls have “university of higher” education. This is far higher than the percentage in the general population. And since those with university educations are less likely to vote Conservative than those who are less educated, the EKOS poll consistently underestimates the Conservative vote and overestimates the Liberal vote.

  • William

    Ipsos Reid says 41% for CPC, nationally.
    Nanos says 38.8% for CPC, nationally.

    37.65% of the popular vote netted the Conservatives 143 seats in the last election, and 36.27% got them 124 seats before that.

    Sure, a higher popular vote percentage *might* lead to a loss of 12 seats, but you really haven’t explained how you came to that conclusion. Some explanation of your methodology is clearly warranted.

  • Gary

    I have been asking the same question myself about the range of numbers that are reported by the various polling groups. Most of us understand that polling is much like surveying so the questions you ask and how you ask it is a factor in the results you receive and then interpret. The last few evenings I spent time researching who was behind the different groups undertaking the various polls and it gives you a clearer understanding of the ideological makeup of those groups. So you put those pieces together and you can see where divergence in numbers can and frankly will be generated to support one side or the other. We would be foolish as voters to think that politics do not come into play.

    Having stated this I think the numbers are somewhere in the middle of all these groups. I don’t think Harper will get a majority I think it will be a similar seat breakdown as in the past parliament with a few swapping of seats. How this plays out will be the most interesting part of this election. I am not adverse to a coalition government in fact I think it would good to see a parliament that is forced to work more closely together along different party lines. After all cooperation and diversity is one of the things that has made Canada the country that it is.

  • Sandea

    I feel your poll is a much closer reflection of reality
    based on all that has transpired over the past year.
    As more people become aware of that reality, the
    trend towards our next democratic stage will unfold.

  • Wilson

    I actually think this seat projection is a very realistic, if you look at the last election Ekos was actually very close in terms of the percentage.

    I saw one of the other polls you talked about and even the pollster acknowledged that even though the cons were near the magic 40% if you drill down to electoral seats its not that close.

    For instance they had 65% support in Alberta which is more than they need to win all sits in that province and that number also pushes up the cons overrall poll rating. This poll gives them all the sits in Alberta even though there is one where the Ndp could hold so I think its fair

    Cheers

  • Jerome

    Voters seem to look at the leaders and come to the conclusion that Harper would make the best prime minister.
    However, when his numbers get so tantalizingly close to majority territory, voters seem to back-track.
    It appears, Canadians don’t have the trust in any one party or leader to give them a majority.

  • Mike

    Except that Ekos has always been the more accurate of the major polls, year after year

  • Wascally Wabbit

    David can believe all he likes – but the numbers don’t lie.
    Frankie – I’m a cracked record I know – but WHEN are you going to track / talk about UNDECIDEDs?
    They will be the key to the final numbers in this election. Nik Nanos used to track them. They used to be in the 18-23% range. Now it appears to me that no-one – including yourself – are tracking them.
    Reason they are so important – IF they don’t get off the fence – apathy AND Stephen Harper wins.
    IF they do – then almost all of them will go to one of the Opposition parties.
    This election isn’t about Harper taking votes from other parties. He can’t do it – which is why he has never attained a majority. It is about other parties convincing those undecideds to come back and vote!

  • Ben

    “You’re polls aren’t showing me what I want to see, and so i’m [sic] skeptical” – Polls aren’t supposed to show what you want to see – this is no reason to be skeptical of them.

  • Neil

    This is just showing the results that Ekos poll results are not correct and favor the Liberal Party. I can not see any possibility that the Conservatives will loose any seats as their popular support has increased since the last election. Ekos is showing a false poll to try and boster support on the left. A much better poll and projection was done by the Laurier Institute blending several polls and the resuts are: Conservative – 151 Seats Liberal – 75, NDP – 34 Bloc – 48 A few swing seats will decide if Harper wins a majority or if we are left with the staus quo.

  • smith

    Ekos lists the green party as an option, whereas Nanos does not, this causes Nanos poll to not reflect the actual amount of people voting green (ekos lists 7 or 8, inline with other surveys and the last election, whereas Nanos is less than 4) this extra couple of percent skews the result of all the other parties.

  • I can understand that Conservative supporters are reacting like scalded cats to your seat projections. But, you can’t get a majority just by saying you will, and so everybody else might as well stay home on election day.
    A disengaged electorate is the Conservatives’ best friend. People are starting to pay attention. Harper’s dreams of gaining a majority by stealth while no one was watching are being dashed.

  • Hamish

    I notice the polls by most of the other polling firms are now also showing Conservative support dropping. So EKOS was just ahead of the curve. The biggest outlier at the moment appears to be Nanos.

  • CS

    I don’t think for a minute that the Conservatives will get a majority. However, I would be shocked if they receive less than 140 seats. I think you’re numbers in Quebec are unrealastic and we will have a HOC almost identical to the last one. The only question is, how many leaders are forced to resign, 2,3 or 4. They all have themselves to blame for this complete waste of time and money.

  • Anne Wilson

    Thankfully we are having a necessary and welcome election so that Canadians will be able to make an informed decision about the kind of government we want. My hope is that Canadians will chose not to offer a majority mandate to the only leader in Westminister history to be found in contempt of parliamnet by a speaker of the house. My hope is that Canadians will not offer a majority mandate to a leader who states that he will not work with other parties if he is re-elected as a minority Prime Minister. My hope is that Canadians will not re-elect a Prime Minister who insists that in a minority parliment he will reintroduce the identical pre-election budget and that if it is defeated he will not go to the Governor General to request that the opposition be given an opporunity to make parliament work as mandated by our constitution. The only other option would be an immediate election which is not allowed by law. Polls indicate what they indicate. This poll indicates that Canadians are finally getting the message that there are options to the scandalous, unethical and unconstitional behaviour of Mr. Harper. Way to go Canadians! We don’t have to settle for contempt for our democracy.

  • Jerome

    The next election will be very interesting if there is no majority government after this election. Without a majority, Harper is history.

    Bernard Lord leading the Conservatives.
    Justin Trudeau or Gerard Kennedy leading the Liberals.