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EKOS SEAT PROJECTIONS – April 19, 2011

[OTTAWA – April 19, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.

It is remarkable how similar these seat projections are to the current composition of Parliament. While the Liberals are poised to lose several seats to the NDP (mostly in Quebec), the Conservative and Bloc numbers are relatively stable.

It is interesting to note the voter inefficiency of the NDP vote in Quebec. While Bloc support has plummeted ten percent in the last few weeks, the party has benefited immensely from seat splitting among the other parties. The current projections put them only one seat behind their performance in the last election.

It also appears that the modest shift in Conservative fortunes in Ontario from last week’s tie has resulted in big seat dividends. While last week’s projections suggested a significantly diminished Conservative minority, this week’s results suggested that the Liberals may not even succeed in putting a dent in the Conservative Party’s pre-election numbers.

Click here for the full report: seat_projection_april_19_2011

1 comment to EKOS SEAT PROJECTIONS – April 19, 2011

  • carol berney

    I live in the riding of Durham. So you know I am up front, I am a liberal and have worked in about 30 fed, pro and municipal elections over thirty five years. The Durham liberals two last campaigns were horrid and were not strong candidates. Have seen some good liberal candidates too, but not ever as strong as the one we have now. Now the interesting part, Oda seems like she did not want to run. Could win but most likely if she does will only serve about a year. I will not go in to all the pluses for us this time, what I do find astounding is all candidates started on the weekend and so many people are coming to them the halls are packed, debates last election you would be lucky to get a hundred out now it is standing room only with three and four hundred out. All I can get from it is people are still shopping this late in the election.