[OTTAWA – April 21, 2011] From time to time, EKOS offers seat projections based on its opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.
Over the next few days, the electorate are going to start scrutinising the brave new political world they have tentatively created. There are profound strategic implications based on these new patterns of support and our data and analysis can provide some hints as to where the electorate might decide to go (and what these shifts might be telling us about what is driving the public). It is quite unlikely that these results are the final public judgement of Campaign 41 and it will be very interesting and important to watch what happens over the long weekend as the electorate ponder where they have arrived.
First of all, it seems clear that the public aren’t leaning to give Mr. Harper his majority. Seat projections reveal that if an election were held today, the Conservatives would win a diminished minority while the Liberals and the NDP would share a higher total number of seats. The question of which side will win more seats is of crucial importance. If the public drift back to the Conservatives, then this may well be a signal of a secure minority. If they go the other way, this could be a pretty clear mandate for a change of government. It is also unclear if the latter of these two scenarios were to occur whether the voters will continue to gravitate to Jack Layton or whether they will see Michael Ignatieff as a better choice to preside over this new government. What is clear is that the fundamental drivers of this issue is the ballot question of whether voters want a change of management because of fundamental dissatisfaction with the Conservative government or shall we stay the course because everything is working pretty well at the national level?
It is notable that residents of Quebec are the most dissatisfied with direction of government and this is precisely where NDP are posed to pick up the most seats.
All in all, Campaign 41 has just become very interesting and the voter response to these new dynamics against the still stable ballot question will be extremely interesting to watch in coming day. The shape of final public judgement should come into fairly clear focus by mid week.
Click here for the full report: seat_projection_april_21_2011