EKOS SEAT PROJECTION
“Prediction is very hard, especially about the future.” – Yogi Berra
These seat projections are based on EKOS’ opinion polling. The projections are based on national, regional, and, in some cases, sub-regional polling projected onto the results of the last election. They do not pretend to predict individual ridings.
[OTTAWA – May 1, 2011] As we conclude Campaign 41 and await the public judgement, a few final comments are in order. Despite a bewildering array of contradictory evidence from the earlier polls it now appears that what was previously thought unimaginable has… [More...]
A BRIEF POST MORTEM ON POLLING ELECTION 41 – May 3, 2011
EKOS VS. THE ACTUAL RESULTS
[OTTAWA – May 3, 2011] Canada’s 41st election was extremely interesting and surprising. While we believe EKOS did a very good job in charting the direction of the election and some of the historical shifts that occurred, we were caught flat footed in capturing the majority victory for the Conservative Party. We correctly predicted a Conservative victory but we failed to predict the outright majority. Our final estimate of Conservative support fell well outside of the margin of error and, while it was not that far off the industry average, we were unfortunately on… [More...]